2 Mariners that should play more, 2 that should play less
What are some adjustments to playing time the Mariners could make to improve their performance?
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Many fans are somewhat dissatisfied with how Seattle's season has started. Despite a promising offseason (to some, others are impossible to please), the Mariners seem to be floundering on all fronts. The team's OPS of .618 is ranked 26th in MLB. The team's ERA of 4.28 is actually average but that's because of the incredible work by the bullpen thus far. The team's ERA for starting pitchers is 4.91, 24th in MLB.
Assuming no new faces are added in the coming weeks, what are some roster moves the team can make with its existing pieces to try and rectify their current shortcomings? More specifically, who should get more playing, and who should get less?
Dylan Moore Should Get More Time
Moore has never been a full-time starter in his six major-league seasons but it might be about that time. He's gotten a decent amount of playing time this year, accruing 28 plate appearances and posting a .721 OPS. Not incredible in its own right, but there are peripheral metrics that suggest that it should be even better. His batted ball data is excellent, averaging an exit velocity of 91.9 mph and quality of contact metrics in the top quartile of major league players.
This is illustrated in his expected stats, namely his xSLG of .414, which is a good amount higher than his actual slugging percentage of .364. He's walking at a stellar 17.9%, on par with Juan Soto this year. He hasn't gotten enough time in the field to put together any meaningful defensive metrics just yet but he's never had a poor glove and would likely be able to, at the very least, keep up with his peers.
The main reason he needs " target="_blank">more time is because of his bat. Seattle's offense is clearly struggling and will need to pick up if the team hopes to compete. On one hand, they've been historically cold to start off every season. On the other hand, why put off until tomorrow what you can do today?
Mitch Garver Should Get Less Time...For Now
When a player is getting paid $12 million a year, it can be hard to consider benching them, but it's happened before. Just last year, Javier Báez was benched for an ice-cold start to the season despite getting paid $22 million so it's not the end of the world.
Garver was signed to be an imposing force at DH and it simply hasn't seemed to click yet. He's slashing .156/.250/.222 so far over 45 plate appearances with a 30.8% strikeout rate. He's whiffing a lot, hitting a ton of pop-ups, and simply not delivering on what is expected from of a player of his caliber. He seems to be getting particularly beat on the slider, a pitch against which he's batting .091 and striking out at a 50% clip. A chart of every slider he's seen so far this season shows just how frequently he's getting beat on it.
Rough look for Mitch Garver against the slider this year. It seems to be the primary driver behind his slow start and he's got a wOBA of .133 against 43 pitches.
— Jason Wang (@jasonwang7517) April 13, 2024
He's actually hitting well against the fastball, but boy this slider is crushing him. pic.twitter.com/99TQQ0mTJd
Oh, he's also struggling immensely against the sinker as well. Long story short, Garver has some work to do but is known to be a great hitter so expect him to warm up...eventually.
Seems to get fooled by the sinker too. 8 strikes looking vs. 1 swing and miss.
— Jason Wang (@jasonwang7517) April 13, 2024
Also important to note that all six balls-in-play against the sinker were outs. pic.twitter.com/vzKpb8e9c3
Gabe Speier Should Get More Time
(Note here - This was submitted before the back-to-back appearances, so great call on Speier getting more time)
As one of just two lefties in the Seattle bullpen, Speier is also one of just two pitchers yet to concede their first earned run, the other being Tyson Miller. Despite getting the call in five games, he's only pitched in 3 ⅔ innings so far this year, striking out six and giving up just three hits. There's evidence to suggest that he could be doing even more to lead the ninth-best bullpen in MLB.
Hi four-seam fastball has yet to give up a hit and boasts an impressive 50% strikeout rate, as does his slider. His fastball tends to live in the middle-upper part of the zone and despite a below-average velocity of just 93.3 mph so far this season, he lives on crafty sequencing to make his living. Of the 10 he's thrown so far, only one has been put in play.
The pecking order in the bullpen has been set up in a way to give names like Trent Thornton and Andrés Muñoz most of the relief innings so far, and deservedly so. To increase the available innings for Speier, the Mariners can either 1) move him up in the order or 2) pull their starters earlier and give them shorter starts. The latter might be a mutually beneficial option as more and more teams have realized the benefits of more variety in pitchers used per games.
Gabe Speier, Ridiculous Back Foot Slider. 😯 pic.twitter.com/e7HQOAwvwH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 31, 2024
Austin Voth Should Get Less Time
If one were to take a look at the current lay of the land, the number one name that probably comes to mind as a pitcher that needs to take a seat for a bit would probably be Emerson Hancock. He's had a rough go of it and is currently cruising around with a 7.98 ERA that looks better than it did days ago after a nice start against the Cubs. However, it's important to note that once Bryan Woo is back from the IL, he'll almost certainly be taking back his spot in the rotation from Hancock.
A less clear option would be Austin Voth. After being designated for assignment by the Baltimore Orioles and electing free agency after 2023, he signed a one-year deal to join the bullpen. He has been slightly underwhelming thus far, pitching to a 4.70 ERA over 7.2 innings. What's most concerning, however, is his relatively low strikeout rate and high walk rate.
The best relievers come into the game in high-leverage situations and shut down the opposing team, which explains why many often choose to focus more on WHIP when evaluating them. Any traffic on the base-paths is bad and relatively low innings counts can inflate and distort ERA numbers.
Emmanuel Clase is known as a low-strikeout closer but his walk rate is typically among the best in the best and his ground-ball rate is always in the 90th percentile or higher. On the other hand, Voth isn't able to compensate for his low strikeout rate with soft contact or limiting walks which explains his stats 1.41 WHIP and 5.37 FIP.
The issue is that currently, the Mariners are a pretty low-scoring team. This means that most innings are somewhat important because Seattle is usually protecting a very small lead, if any exists at all. Thus, it ends up being risky bringing Voth in the game, whether it's the sixth or ninth inning. Any major-leaguer can turn it around and there's a reason they've made it to the show, but like Mitch Garver, he might just need more time to rediscover what got him there in the first place.