Let the Past Die: The Mariners Should Sign Carlos Correa

It truly is one of the most fun times of the year. Thanksgiving and the holidays have arrived. The NFL and college football are in the stretch run, the NBA is picking up steam (bring back the Sonics you cowards), and the Seattle Kraken are playing really well in year 2. Heck, we even have the World Cup going on right now. While baseball may have just finished, the offseason hot stove is heating up, as one of the most fascinating times of the MLB season is upon us and the Seattle Mariners. It’s time to talk about the elephant in the room… Carlos Correa.

The Mariners are in a unique spot. They just made the playoffs for the first time in two decades and had a moderately successful, if not wildly entertaining, postseason run. They have one of the brightest futures in baseball, but there’s only one problem…Houston.

If there’s a team in the AL with a better bullpen than Seattle, it’s probably the Astros. If there’s a team with enough star power on offense to overwhelm Julio Rodriguez, it’s the Astros. If there’s a team that has a better staff than the dominant potential in Seattle, it’s the Astros. Dominance…Dynasty…Destiny…It all leads back to Houston for this Mariners franchise. Everything the Mariners want, Houston stands in their way.

In a baseball way of thinking, they are the enemy. If Seattle wants to ever hang a banner in T-Mobile Park again, which means to win the AL West, get to an ALCS or better, they need to start looking at creative ways to beat the Astros.

The Mariners are not going to weaken the Astros by stealing Justin Verlander away from Houston or trading with them for one of their current stars. Instead, I believe that the Mariners should look to an old Houston star, and a former rival of Seattle, to join forces and take down the evil empire.

Three reasons why the Seattle Mariners should sign SS Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa: He’s the best player on the market

Before we get into the personalities and concerns most of you have, let’s talk about the type of player we’re looking at that is available. Carlos Correa turned 28 in September and has been one of the best players in baseball since he stepped onto the field for Houston back in 2015. One of the game’s very best defenders at the shortstop position, Correa is also an underrated slugger. With comparisons to Alex Rodriguez when he first came up, Correa has never matched the power that Seattle ARod showed but is a complete all-around hitter.

Over the course of his seven full seasons (excluding the 2020 Covid season), Correa has consistently been at an all-star level, hitting a slash line of .280/.357/.479. He has averaged over 25 doubles and 21 home runs a season while posting an OPS+ of 129 for his career. For those that don’t follow the numbers as much, OPS+ is one of the most accurate ways to put a value on a player offensively. The average hitter posts a 100 OPS+, so Correa has been 29% better than the average SS.

Many people questioned if Correa leaving the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park, as well as the Astros “culture”, for the Minnesota Twins and their pitcher-friendly ballpark would affect his bat. All Correa did was post a slash line of .291/.366/.467 for a 140 OPS+, as well as matching his career power numbers.

For reference, J.P. Crawford posted exactly an OPS+ of 100 this season. Correa was 40% better offensively than Crawford this season. While he has historically struggled at T-Mobile Park, I think his success in Minnesota is more of an indicator of success than his struggles in Seattle.

Correa has an all-star bat that has received MVP votes in the past. As great as that bat is, it almost pales in comparison to the type of defender Correa is. For three straight seasons, Correa has been a finalist for the Gold Glove Award. He won the award in 2021, as well as the Platinum Glove, awarded to the best overall defensive player in each league. Considering his size, he has incredible range and has ranked 3rd, 5th, and 6th over the last three years for arm strength from shortstops.

When I look at Correa, I see the best overall player on the free-agent market. He doesn’t have Judge’s power or Turner’s speed, but when you consider the hitter overall, as well as his defensive dominance, he’s the real deal.

Carlos Correa fits Seattle’s needs and timeline

We know that Correa is a special talent, but is he a player that sees as a fit? They should. The goal this offseason is clear, try to catch Houston. Obviously, economics play a major factor in this off-season hunt, but Seattle needs more star power on the offensive side.

Signing a player like Carlos Correa, who would have been Seattle’s second-best hitter last season, completely changes the lineup as well. We already know about the Teoscar Hernandez trade, so let’s just assume no more major offensive moves are made other than Teo and Correa. If you slot Teo in at the #5 hole and Correa at the #3, this is what a potential lineup could look like 1-6.

1. 1- Julio CF
2. France 1B
3. Correa SS
4. Raleigh C
5. Teo RF
6. Geno 3B

Obviously, that is very right-handed heavy, but that is a powerful and imposing 1-6. All six are projected to hit over 20 home runs and have an OPS+ of at least 120. I wrote this summer about how the great teams, those that make League Championships and World Series, have a minimum of 4-5 OPS+ 120 hitters. This lineup has the first six hitters all meeting this requirement. Any positive improvement or rebound from guys like Crawford, Winker, Kelenic, and this lineup could be a top 3 lineup in the American League.

On top of Correa being a great player, he’s a clutch performer. Playing for the Astros, Correa was raised in the playoffs. During his career, Correa has made the postseason six times, winning the AL West four times. His teams won three AL Championships and the controversial 2017 title. While these numbers have, and will always be questioned, he has shown up in October.

He put up pedestrian numbers in 2018 and 2019, but his numbers in 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2021 are borderline historic. Overall, Correa in 79 career playoff games, has 16 doubles and 18 home runs to go with a slash line of .272/.344/.505. This is the type of bat that could have helped push a run across in the Mariners heartbreaking 1-0 loss to Houston in Game 3 of the ALDS.

The last area where Correa fits the Mariners is in their timeline of contention. Seattle is one of the younger teams in the league and is hoping to be competitive for championships over the next five seasons, not just one or two. Most players reach free agency after they turn 30, which means you’re starting the dangerous game of paying a player for their past accomplishments rather than their future performance.

With Correa, that is not the case. Because Correa was called up at an early age, he is hitting free agency a second time at just 28 years old, which will be his playing age for almost the entirety of the 2023 season.

As players begin to decline around age 32 or 33, the Mariners will have enjoyed 5-6 years of Correa’s prime. Most 10-year mega contracts hope to get 3-4 good years, which makes Correa so attractive as a target.