Mariners: Who won the Robinson Cano/Jarred Kelenic Trade?
Mariners/Mets Trade: The Verdict
Here’s what it ended up being, when you take everything into account. This includes all the money paid as well as money that still needs to be paid, salaries of guys who were traded, WAR to this point, and all the players involved in total.
Incoming: Edwin Diaz
Outgoing: Jay Bruce, Robinson Cano (in and out), Gerson Bautista, Anthony Swarzak, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic
WAR: 3.6 WAR
Incoming: Jarred Kelenic, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez
Outgoing: Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Anthony Swarzak (in and out), Jay Bruce (in and out), Gerson Bautista (in and out), Justin Dunn (in and out), Brandon Williamson, Jake Fraley
WAR: -0.3 WAR
Is 3.9 WAR worth $30.97 million? Well, that’s about the going rate, as a Win is estimated at around $7.5-8.0 million. There is more to it than that. The Mariners have Kelenic through 2027 and Suarez signed through 2025 at 3yr-$37.6 million, with Winker eligible for Arb 3 in 2023. The Mets are going to have to re-sign Diaz if they want to keep him, and they are going to have to pay heavily to do so.
Here’s what I see. The Mets have a great closer, and it cost them a lot of money. It’s going to cost them even more to keep him. Raisel Iglesias for 4-58, and I would expect Diaz will want that, if not more.
The Mariners got some good pieces in Suarez and Winker by moving Dunn, even if it cost them Brandon Williamson. They also received the Mets most recent first-rounder at the time of the trade, and even 3.5 years later, he’s still only 22-years-old. The Mariners have 6 years left of control on Kelenic. Six!
Even if you call the money exchange a wash, the Mariners have a bit of control left on Winker, Suarez under contract for a few years, and Kelenic through 2027. The Mets have Diaz through this year. That’s it.
Even if Kelenic never does anything (I doubt it, I’m still 100% in his corner), the Mariners win this trade running away. The Mets were dumb to trade for Cano while sending out a highly touted prospect with a massive ceiling. It’s a great closer for a massive prospect, a powerful third baseman, and a LF who has a history of destroying RHP.