When you are looking to make interesting trade proposals, one of the fun teams to investigate is the Tampa Bay Rays. They have a great system for developing players, great scouting, and do not like spending money. It means that as players get older, the phone opens up and they become available. It’s why the Mariners could call to inquire about Tyler Glasnow.
Now, Tyler Glasnow would be one of the hardest values to gauge in baseball. He is likely going to be out for the entirety of the 2022 season after having Tommy John surgery. Then, for 2023, it’s going to be his final arbitration season before becoming a free agent. Whatever you send out for him, you are only going to get one year from Glasnow, even though you will still have to pay his 2022 salary.
Earlier in the offseason, the idea of Evan White for Tyler Glasnow was proposed by Joe Doyle. It’s an interesting proposition. Glasnow is extremely talented, strikes a ton of hitters out, has decent control, has a good WHIP, ERA, and FIP. However, he’s thrown over 100 innings just once in his career.
It’s why I don’t particularly like the Evan White trade. The 6 year-$24 million extension he signed keeps him under cheap team control through 2025, and he has three more years of club options at 10, 11, and 12.5, with very small buyouts. If White becomes a decent player, even one with a yearly WAR of 2.0 or so, then the club options are worth it. If he finds his bat, you know the level of defense he can bring, and the deal could turn into quite the bargain.
You would be giving all of that up for a pitcher who has made it halfway through a season… never. Sure, you could count 2020 since he made 11 starts, but with his history, you would have to predict him to stay healthy. Which is what you would be doing if you traded for him as well. You can see the talent, with a 2.80 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 0.976 WHIP, and 12.7 K/9 since 2019. Instead of White, I think it would be better to send out a couple of people.
Tampa is smart. They know what they’re doing. It’s why I think you could send them someone who could make the MLB roster right out of the gate if Tampa chose to put them there, and add in a prospect as well.
Look, I know people want to value Glasnow highly. He definitely has the talent. His track record is spotty, and Tampa has a history of not wanting to pay people who are either not currently producing, who are expensive, or who are getting older and closer to UFA. Glasnow hits all of those.
I really don’t think it would take a ton because of the associated risk, but you still have to give something up that makes you worry a bit. Again, he’s hard to value, and it might take a bit more or a different styled package, but Tampa could value that cap space as an asset they acquire in the trade as well.
Dylan Moore seems exactly like the kind of player who could figure it out in Tampa. He moves around, spelling multiple positions, providing solid defense at second and in the corners, and finally does what Mariners fans have been hoping for. He hits .240 with 20/20. Even though he is 29, yeah is controllable through 2024, giving the Rays three years of Moore.
They also get a low-value prospect in Michael Limoncelli who showed good stuff (12.2 K/9) but massive command concerns (9.2 BB/9) in 2021. It was his first season back after Tommy John, so 2022 will be an important year in his development. I could also see Tampa looking for multiple prospects instead since they wouldn’t be giving up any major league talent in 2022.
Should the Mariners go for Glasnow? I think it’s one of the highest risk/highest reward plays out there that they could go for via a trade. If he’s healthy, the Mariners have a Cy Young candidate talent to add to their rotation. If not, they’ve spent ~$12-15 million and assets for nothing. It’s a risky move but is fun to think about.