Mariners Prospect Update: Julio Rodriguez just keeps getting better

Every time that news comes out about Julio Rodriguez, it just seems like he is getting better and better. At just 20 years old, he’s essentially still a kid… but isn’t slowing down at all. The Mariners top prospect, and is arguably the top prospect in all of baseball, is impressing at every turn.

A few years ago, the thought process you would hear from scouts was that as Julio got older and got bigger, he would slow down. Well, it looks like that isn’t the case at all.

Yeah, that’s fast. Labrada has borderline elite speed, coming in with a grade around 65/70. That’s really fast. It’s not Jonatan Clase fast, but it’s still impressive.

Julio beat him in a race. Just think about that. Julio is a guy that is supposed to have 35-40 HR power, with a great average to go along with it. The speed was supposed to be decent, capable of allowing him to play decent defense in the outfield.

Beating Labrada in a race though? It’s tough to fathom how impressive that is. Last year, his run grade was a 50. Straight-line speed doesn’t directly translate to that grade, but winning a race vs Labrada definitely pushes him up to that 60-65 range for speed. Personally, I think that pushes his fielding up as well. If you’re faster, you cover more ground, and become a better fielder. That’s the hope, at least.

Do you know what else that means? It means that Julio doesn’t have a single tool below 60. NONE! That’s insane. From being a corner outfielder with a great arm to potentially being the team’s next CF. He turns 21 in December, and there are rumors that he is going to start with the big league club in 2022.

He dominated every level he played at, including the Olympics. Check out his splits from every level that he played at in 2021.

• High A (Everett) – 134 PA, .325/.410/.581, 6 HR, 5 SB, 8 2B
• AA (Arkansas) – 206 PA, .362/.461/.546, 7 HR, 16 SB, 11 2B
• Olympics (DR) –  24 AB, .417/.444/.625, 1 HR, 1 SB, 2 2B

Julio Rodriguez is like the energizer bunny of hitting. He just keeps on going.

Whether or not you think Julio should start on the big league club in 2022 could be an argument for another day. I’m just amazed at how he continues to improve and impress.

His foot speed was supposed to go down. Instead, it’s greatly improved. Normally, if a player’s speed improves, they’ve lost weight to move quicker, and in turn, lose power. That hasn’t happened either. Julio Rodriguez is proving why he is one of the best prospects in baseball, and it’s fun to try and think of a good comp.

I compared the ceiling for Julio Rodriguez to Frank Robinson earlier this year. Robinson had a nice stretch of speed, swiping 153 bags in 9 seasons. However, we might be seeing a prospect that doesn’t really fit in with anyone in history.

“Hold on. No one in history? Isn’t that a pretty lofty statement?”

Look, the only one might be Barry Bonds, but to put it nicely, he can shove it. Here’s why. Julio is likely going to debut next year at the age of 21, whether it’s at the beginning of the season or sometime in June. If he is the prospect that people think he could be, that’s going to potentially lead to a career that pushes 15-20 years.

Now, if the speed is real, he is going to push for 300 SB. It’s not too far out there if he really is a 60-65 grade speed guy. 20 SB a season, with some higher years, and he will get there even with a second-half slowdown to his career.

Then, the power. That’s what everyone expects from Julio. 35-40 a season. That’s a lot.

The only guy out there right now like that is Ronald Acuna and a healthy Mike Trout. Before that, it was probably Matt Kemp. We don’t see guys like this very often, and trying to project it out to an entire career is crazy when you see the capabilities. I’m not sitting here projecting that he actually hits 35 HR and steals 20 bags a year for 18 years. However, he is showing the potential for that, and it’s something that now sits at his ceiling as a possibility.

Here’s why I say it’s hard to find someone in history with what he projects to. There aren’t a lot of 300/300 guys. In fact, there are only eight. EIGHT! If I had to pick someone to compare him to, it’s probably Andre Dawson, who finished with 438/314.

Could he actually get there? You have to factor in health, consistency, and good luck. I think it’s a realistic ceiling of expectations for Julio. Again, I’m not saying I think he is going to hit 40 a year for 18 years and steal 25 a year over that same time frame. That would be 720/450. That’s Barry Bonds numbers.

If things work out right, I definitely do see Julio Rodriguez going down as not just one of the best Mariners of all-time, but pushing into that argument for one of the best players of his generation… and possibly all-time.