The Seattle Mariners Offseason Plan: A Collaborative Approach

We are less than a month away from the biggest offseason in recent history for the Seattle Mariners. Coming off of an unexpected 90-win season, plus President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto being given the green light to spend big in free agency, Mariners fans are brimming with excitement for what’s to come.

This article will feature contributions from four SoDo Mojo writers: Ben Ranieri, Derek Richwine, Max Ellingsen, and myself, as it would be impossible for one writer to try to accurately tackle the activities coming up this winter. The Mariners’ offseason plan is obviously in the hands of Dipoto and company, but our team will give our humble opinions on what Seattle should do once the World Series wraps up in early November.

The five biggest question marks for the Mariners heading into next season are how to handle their starting rotation, plus the everyday duties at catcher, second base, third base, and the outfield. So, we’ll focus primarily on those five aspects of the team (though the Mariners will assuredly address all positions during the offseason).

Enough with the intros – we’ll take it away with next year’s starting pitchers:

The Mariners had an overall solid performance from their starting rotation this season, but there’s always room for improvement.

Ben:  Marco Gonzales, Logan Gilbert, and Chris Flexen are all locks for the starting rotation in 2022. The Mariners will likely decline the club option that would add four years to the deal of lefty Yusei Kikichi, but he will likely accept his player option keeping him in the rotation for 2022. This leaves one spot for the Mariners to be creative with. George Kirby and Emerson Hancock are not ready yet, so I expect the Mariners to be active in free agency.

If the Mariners sign a big-name free agent position player, it would limit their options here to a pool of lower level guys. Jon Gray, Anthony Desclafani and Noah Synergaard are all names to keep an eye on, with Desclafani joining the rotation in the remaining spot. I’d like to see Syndergaard in somewhat of a buy low deal, but I see the Mariners going in a different direction.

Connor:  I have confidence that Logan Gilbert will be a top-of-the-line starter as early as next season, so I don’t think the Mariners should overspend on an older pitcher such as Max Scherzer or Zack Greinke. Instead, I hope to see the Mariners pursue Carlos Rodon of the White Sox, a left-hander whose fastball, according to Fangraphs, was the most effective pitch in baseball in 2021.

The Mariners’ best minor-league starters are George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, and Matt Brash (all right-handers), and all figure into the Mariners’ plans in their long-term rotation. Adding a young lefty with playoff experience, such as Rodon, would make this rotation much better next year and beyond. In two years, I’m thinking Gilbert, Rodon, Kirby, Gonzales, and Hancock/Brash could be one of the best rotations in all of baseball.

Derek:  While the Mariners pitching rotation didn’t end up looking anything like what most people expected coming into the season, the guys they rolled with got it done. I’m looking for the Mariners to make a big splash this offseason to solidify the top of the rotation. Signing Robbie Ray or Max Scherzer would convince me that this front office is really in it to win it. We all know Marco is a solid piece, but he can’t be the #1 guy on a World Series contender. I’d like to see them add one top of the rotation guy in free agency, and bring back Tyler Anderson to round out the rotation.

Max:  If the Mariners sort two new lefties (Carlos Rodon and Kyle Freeland) into the rotation, the 2022 starting pitching staff could be a force to be reckoned with. Rodon had a tremendous year with the White Sox in 2021, and would be a bonafide ace for a team lacking a true number one. Coupled with the acquisition of Freeland from the Rockies, the Mariners would have tremendous depth on the mound.

The Mariners’ catching tandem of Cal Raleigh and Tom Murphy struggled in 2021; what’s the plan behind the plate next season?

Ben:  Cal Raleigh got off to a rocky start at the big league level in 2021. However, Jerry Dipoto and company should know catcher development takes time, and they wont give up on Cal just yet. But for a team that needs to win now, the Mariners need a splash.

With a weak free agent class at catcher, the Mariners can look to the trade market, and I believe Willson Contreras can be their guy. Acquiring Contreras gives the Mariners a solid, proven option at the position, and allows them to bring Raleigh along slowly to soften his landing a bit more.

Connor:  Since the Mariners have heralded Cal Raleigh as the “catcher of the future” for the past couple of years, I think it’s far too early to bring in an everyday catcher who would take all of his at-bats. With a weak free agent market at catcher, the Mariners would have to give up quality prospects to bring in a player such as Willson Contreras, and I’m not willing to do that.

I wrote earlier this month that Luis Torrens’ best future consists of him developing his catching skills, and I stand by that. Raleigh and Torrens splitting time against righties, and Torrens playing against lefties, feels like the best plan to me going into next year.

Derek:  I don’t envision the Mariners moving on from Cal Raleigh before giving him a full season as the primary guy behind the dish. Personally, I would like to see the Mariners move Torrens back to catcher. I know the team loves having Murphy call games, but I just don’t see a spot in the lineup for Torrens other than backing up Cal, and I think the Mariners would prioritize keeping his bat in the lineup over Murphy calling games.

Max:  Cal Raleigh, despite struggling mightily in his first glimpse at the big leagues, showed enough promise behind the dish to warrant the chance to start next year as the team’s primary catcher. Still getting established in the majors, Raleigh’s defensive ability and offensive upside provide the team with an intriguing option behind the plate. Giving Raleigh time to develop will be crucial for the future success of the team.

Abraham Toro took over at second base for the Mariners at the trade deadline, but there could be better options in free agency.

Ben:  Marcus Semien had one of the all-time great seasons for a second baseman in 2021. The Mariners are desperate for infield/offensive help, and Semien is the perfect fit. He is a West Coast guy, and Dallas Braden had hinted on his show “Starting 9” that Semien would prefer to return to the West Coast. It will take a high dollar amount to land him, but for a team this thin in the infield, it is a necessity. If he is their one big money signing, Semien is a no-brainer to plug in with JP Crawford in the middle.

Connor:   Arguably the best free agent on the market this offseason is Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Marcus Semien, and I believe he would be a perfect fit on the Mariners. A .265/.334/.538 slash line, 45 home runs, 102 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, and a .985 fielding percentage at second base tell the whole story for Semien; he’s a player that can hit anywhere between in the top four of the batting order, can help produce runs with his speed, and can give you solid defense.

Derek:  This is the position where I would really like to see the Mariners go out and give a guy like Marcus Semien a blank check. Second base production has been atrocious since Robinson Cano was shipped out, and while they have the guys with the athleticism to play the position defensively, no one has been able to produce consistently at the plate. My plan calls for them to go all in and get a guy that can fill that hole in the roster.

Max:  One of the top free agents available, Marcus Semien is a premier talent that can seriously augment Seattle’s hopes of contention. Semien was one of the most valuable players in all of baseball last season for Toronto, and fills a position of need for the Mariners. With all the payroll flexibility in the world, Semien needs to be the starting second baseman for the Seattle Mariners in 2022.

Veteran third baseman Kyle Seager is likely headed out of Seattle; who will be his replacement?

Ben:  Abraham Toro was a much scrutinized acquisition for Seattle at this year’s trade deadline, but he silenced a lot of those critics by tearing up the American League in August, before faltering in September. Allowing him to slide over to his natural position of third base fills a hole for the Mariners, and allows Toro to show what he can do in a full-time role. Although Toro is probably best suited as a Marwin Gonzalez-type utility player, I see him beginning 2021 at the hot corner.

Connor:  Abraham Toro didn’t appear overly comfortable at second this season, and baseball is all about being comfortable. So, I’d like to see the young Toro switch back to his original position of third base, while working with infield guru Perry Hill to hone in his craft before the season.

The next few seasons will be something of an audition for Toro, as top prospect Noelvi Marte is waiting in the wings to take over at third by at least 2024. I expect Toro to hit somewhere in the 6-9 range of the order next season, and he should see better pitches than he did in the 5-spot last season, giving him more opportunity to succeed.

Derek:  When the Mariners traded for Abraham Toro, my initial assumption was that he was the heir-apparent to Kyle Seager at 3B. My ideal scenario here would be the Mariners move Abraham Toro back to his natural position, and he produces like he did during the first month after joining the team. This would change if they made a big acquisition through trade or free agency, but if Toro could give the Mariners anything close to the .832 OPS he posted in June, that money might be better allocated elsewhere.

Max:  Alec Bohm, a potential trade acquisition from the Philadelphia Phillies, is a young infielder with immense potential. Though he has struggled so far in his career both at the plate and in the field, Bohm has the minor league numbers and pedigree to warrant time to develop in a new home. He may not be a guarantee, but at some point you have to take a shot on upside.

The Mariners have a good mix of productive veterans and young stars in their outfield, but it’s never a bad idea to add depth.

Ben:  For a team that has as much outfield talent as the Mariners, the key is to not block any of it while still maintaining depth. With the health of players like Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley seemingly constantly in question, I would look for the Mariners to add a short-term addition that would not block players like Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic.

Adam Duvall is a name I believe the Mariners were interested in at the trade deadline this year, and could look to sign to give their outfield some depth and stability at the beginning of the year, especially if Kyle Lewis is not ready.

Connor:   If the Mariners land Marcus Semien in free agency, they are desperately going to need a left-handed bat to balance out the middle of their order. I don’t believe Jarred Kelenic is quite ready for this task, so I hope Seattle dips into free agency and pursues Michael Conforto.

Conforto is coming off of a down season, but has had great career numbers, and could sign a one-year deal before re-entering free agency in 2023 with hopefully a much better market. A one-year deal for Conforto could be around $15 million, but I believe it would be well worth the investment until Kelenic is ready for a middle-of-the-order spot in 2023.

Derek:  My plan for the outfield has Kelenic, Haniger and Lewis serving as the primary guys in LF, RF and CF, respectively. With Julio Rodriguez doing damage in the minors, I’d expect him to be with the big-league club before the end of June. Once Julio is called up, he slides in as the primary right fielder and Haniger moves into a more permanent DH role, occasionally relieving the guys in the outfield.

If Lewis can’t stay healthy, I think Kelenic goes back to CF and some combination of Jake Fraley, Jake Bauers, and Taylor Trammell fill in in left until Dipoto can make a trade to offset the loss of Lewis’s bat.

Max:  A platoon that could do some serious damage, both Jake Fraley and Andrew McCutchen have elite numbers against opposite handed pitchers. I believe McCutchen could bring both talent and leadership to a team looking to take the next step and break through. Pair him with Fraley or Taylor Trammell, and the left field position becomes a strong point.

In center, Jarred Kelenic really began to turn his rookie season around in the last month of the season. Arguably the team’s best hitter down the stretch, Kelenic should have no worries maintaining his role as the teams center fielder. Look for Jarred to have a breakout 2022.

Finally, coming into a contract year, Mitch Haniger has already fired up Mariners fans with his recent Player’s Tribune article. That said, Mitch had a great 2021 season and was able to hold down the right field position. He may cycle through as a DH for load management purposes, or a potential Julio Rodriguez promotion, but look for Hanny to be the Mariners’ opening day right fielder.