Seattle Mariners 2021 Wild Card Chase Breakdown, Pt. 2

New York Yankees (85-67, Last 10: 6-4; Playoff Probability: 39.3%)

The Yankees were 78-61 a few weeks back and in the midst of a losing skid that had them winning only 2 of their previous 10 games.  I previously predicted the Yankees would be at 83 wins and likely out of the Wild Card spot – while they sit at 85 wins, they’re still behind Toronto.  While this team will still clear 90 wins, a lot hinges on their remaining 3 series against Boston, Toronto, and Tampa.  It does help that the Yankees just activated Domingo German off IL.  Below is their upcoming schedule:

1.      1G vs. TEX: The series finale against the Rangers scheduled for later today involves Corey Kluber throwing against Taylor Hearn.  I’d tilt this to the Yankees for the sweep.
Prediction: 1 win.

2.      3G @ BOS: This series is going to be wild.  As much as I think the Red Sox take this series 2-1, the Mariners likely need the Yankees to sweep here to prevent the Yankees from pulling away.  We’re rooting for the race for the second spot to tighten, so only for this stretch of three days…Go Boston.
Prediction: 1 win.

3.      3G @ TOR: Simply because of where both teams are right now in the standings, the Mariners need the Yankees to win 2 of 3 here to prevent Toronto from pulling away with that second Wild Card spot.  Do I like picking the Yankees to win this away series?  No.  It’s September baseball, and I’d bet the Yankees play pissed off after losing to the Red Sox in Fenway.
Prediction: 2 wins.

4.      3G vs. TB: Finishing your season against the best team in the AL is brutal.  I think some would be tempted to say that Tampa rests players here to prep for the postseason, but I’ve always enjoyed teams that have clinched but still play hard through the last game.  Why not spoil the Yankees’ season and allow America to enjoy a postseason sans-Yankees?
Prediction: 1 win.

Given the predictions above, the Yankees would finish with exactly 90 wins.  If the Yankees finish the season at 90 wins, there’s a chance that we tie them in the standings (I’ll explain how shortly).  I didn’t think the Yankees would clear 90 wins, and they still might not – potentially having a postseason without Boston or New York would be a ton of fun.