Seattle Mariners 2021 Wild Card Chase Breakdown, Pt. 1

Oakland A’s (75-64, Last 10: 5-5)

Oakland has the potential to pick up some momentum over the course of the next two weeks.  They’re currently 3G behind the Yankees, and 0.5G behind our Mariners.  They’re playing a rubber match today at home against the White Sox, with Manaea on the mound.  Given Oakland’s upcoming schedule, they could put some pressure on teams above them in the next two weeks.  Their end-of-season schedule is…brutal.  More on that below.

Below is New York’s upcoming schedule and what the Mariners can realistically expect:

1. Final game against CWS: Both teams are throwing stud pitchers, so it’ll be a battle.  I always tend to slightly lean towards the home team (even if the A’s only draw ~6,000 fans per game), so this series tilts in favor of the A’s.
   Prediction: 1 win
2. 3G vs. TEX: The Rangers are a difficult team to play.  Texas won the previous series in Arlington, while the A’s took care of business the last time the Rangers came to the Coliseum.  This series tilts towards the A’s, but I don’t see a sweep in play.
   Prediction: 2 wins
3. 3G @ KC: The A’s are throwing their studs in the first two games of this series (Manaea and Montas), so another series win seems likely.  This would mean a 3-series win streak for Oakland, which is not something to get excited about as a Mariners fan.
   Prediction: 2 wins
4. 3G @ LAA: The Angels have a few players looking to come off the IL right around this series, including players like Dylan Bundy and…Mike Trout.  If they start to get their studs back, they could be a team that looks to ruin at least one team’s playoff hopes.  Dear Baseball gods, please don’t pick us.  Take Oakland, instead.
   Prediction: 2 wins
5. 4G vs. SEA: This is the start of a brutal stretch for the A’s.  We play the A’s incredibly well lately, as we’re 5-1 against Oakland during the second half of the season.  If we can keep that going, it’s going to be hard to stop us down the stretch (Oakland and Seattle play each other 7 times down the stretch).
   Prediction: 2 wins (cautiously optimistic for 1 win here)

If Oakland can keep their winning streak alive, they’ll be a dangerous team and in contention by mid-month.  Given the above predictions, Oakland would find itself at 84 wins by 9/23 and would be tied with Toronto.  Oakland’s big problem is their remaining 9 games: they have 6 games left against Houston and 3 games left against Seattle.  Clearing 90 wins seems highly improbable, thus likely eliminating them from contention.