Seattle Mariners 2021 Wild Card Chase Breakdown, Pt. 1

Toronto Blue Jays (76-62, Last 10: 9-1)

The Blue Jays are playing like one of the best teams in baseball right now.  They’re on the verge of a 4-game sweep against the Yankees in the Bronx, which I would’ve thought was inconceivable if someone told me that a few weeks back.  They also benefit from having 4 games in Baltimore on deck to further pad that win column.  At 1.5G behind NYY for the second Wild Card spot, Toronto is a team that could really open up a lead in the Wild Card standings.

Below is New York’s upcoming schedule and what the Mariners can realistically expect:

1. Final game @ NYY: I think this team’s too hot to lose right now.  Series sweep, and another game gained on the second Wild Card spot.
   Prediction: 1 win
2. 4G @ BAL: Back-to-back 4 game sweeps feels improbable.  It does feel like the Blue Jays have to cool off at some point, given the emotional toll that such a pivotal series against the Yankees can have.
   Prediction: 2 wins
3. 3G vs. TB: The Blue Jays aren’t necessarily dominant at home (39-29), and the Rays are the best team in the American League.  I think the cooling period from the Orioles series lingers, and Tampa Bay snags the series win on the road.
   Prediction: 1 win
4. 3G vs. MIN: Getting to play a team like the Twins after a tough loss to the Rays allows the Blue Jays to correct themselves and get back on track.  They’re last in the American League, and the Blue Jays have Ryu and Matz assigned for Games 1 and 2.  Definitely, 2 wins here, I’d even say likely a sweep.
   Prediction: 3 wins
5. 3G @ TB: What I’ve realized from Toronto’s schedule is a fluctuation between playing teams at the top and bottom of the AL standings.  Going into Tampa Bay and expecting a series win is tough (unless you’re the Seattle Mariners), so it’s fair to assume the Rays take care of business at home.
   Prediction: 1 win

Tampa Bay’s schedule down the stretch is a continuation of this fluctuation, as they play 4 games in Minnesota before a 6-game homestand against the Yankees and Orioles.  With 10 games left, Toronto could find themselves well-positioned in the Wild Card standings with 84 wins and 7 games left against two teams at the bottom of the American League.

Similar to the Red Sox, Toronto could end the season with between 90-91 wins – and that’s assuming they don’t win the series against the Orioles in a few days.