Bringing back Seager on a $15 million contract for next year could be the right decision, but the Mariners might also be wise to look into renegotiating a 2-year contract.
The Mariners’ third-baseman of the future is likely Noelvi Marte, Seattle’s #2 prospect and the #11 prospect in all of MLB. Marte is currently playing like a superstar in Single-A this year as a shortstop, but his abilities may transition best to MLB as a third-baseman, with J.P. Crawford holding down shortstop quite well on the major league team. However, at the ripe age of 19 and currently playing in Single-A, Marte is at least two to three years away from joining the Mariners.
With the Mariners playing so well this season and hoping to contend for a playoff spot over the next two years as well, Seager is a very valuable piece – he produces in the middle of the order, plays a clean third base, and is a proven leader in the clubhouse. Bringing Seager back next year is a good move, but if he has an excellent year, then he’ll hit 2023 free agency with a big market, likely leaving the Mariners without a solid third-baseman that year.
The only reason Seager would turn down a 2-year, $30 million contract with the Mariners this offseason is if he is betting on himself so highly that he believes he will be able to make much more in free agency the next winter. However, as a veteran ball player, this isn’t always the best strategy; if he gets hurt or has a down season, he will have a much smaller market in 2023. So, it may be in his best interest to guarantee himself another $15 million instead of taking that gamble.