The Mariners will need a stronger finish than you think to make the Playoffs

With about a quarter of the season left, the Mariners find themselves in a spot that very few realistically thought they would be this far into the season. They are 63-56, and a handful of games out of the wild card. They are fully in the race though, sitting just 5.5 games behind Oakland and Boston. Tampa and Oakland are 8 and 8.5 games ahead and lead their division, so we are leaving them alone for the time being.

The Mariners are seven games above .500, which is a record that they should 100% be proud of this season. Vegas had them in the low 70s for wins, and you had to search hard to find anyone who thought they were a legit contender for the playoffs. However, it still might not be good enough to get there.

The Mariners have a long road ahead of them if they want to make the playoffs.

At around the halfway mark, I checked in on how the team was doing, and looked at the records of teams who had won the wild card in the past. Around 91 wins are the number that teams average with a wild card berth.

91-71. 20 games above .500. going about 23-17 each quarter of the season. Doesn’t sound too tough, but you have to account for injuries, rough stretches, and the dog days of summer grind that teams run into.

At that point earlier in the season when I looked, the Mariners were 41-38. Since then, they have gone 22-16. Hey, look at that. That’s right in line with the 91 win pace. Unfortunately, they needed to do more than that after being a .500 club through the first half of the season. Here’s why.

Say that Oakland (68-50) and Boston (69-51), each finish out the year at .500. That would put them each at 90-72. Even apply the same thing to New York (65-52) and Toronto (63-54). They would get to about 86-88 wins. You can give a buffer to the team you favor, but in all likelihood, two of those four teams are going to end up with about 90 wins.

This means that the Mariners need to get to 91 wins to have a CHANCE to finish well enough to make the playoffs. That would be a record of 28-15. That’s a winning percentage of 65.1. The Giants aren’t even that good right now, and they have the best record in baseball at 76-42 with a win percentage of 64.4.

That’s guesstimating that two of the teams ahead of the Mariners don’t get hot as well. Let’s extrapolate the four teams ahead of the Mariners and see where they would end up if they keep winning at the same pace they have done so far in 2021.

1. Oakland: 93-69
2. Boston: 93-69
3. New York: 90-72
4. Toronto: 87-75

The Mariners might have to get to 94 wins to make the playoffs. It’s not like I’m giving an unrealistic number here, as its based on what those teams have done for the majority of the season. This would mean that the Mariners would need to finish off the year at 31-12. That’s an insane win rate of 72.1%. Think it’s reasonable? For a full season, that would be 117 wins. A new MLB record.

Look, we have seen the Mariners perform some magic before in August and September. Back in 1995, they were 53-53,12.5 games out, and would go on to rip off a 26-13 run to finish the year. That was thanks to an epic collapse by the Angels. If we are going to see the Mariners make the playoffs again, we are likely going to need some of the teams ahead of them to collapse in a similar matter. Unless that happens, the Mariners are going to have quite the tough road to the playoffs.