Mariners Have a Magic Number… But Not the One You Typically Think Of

Turns out when your favorite team hasn’t made the postseason in two decades you can find some interesting playoff “qualifications” that other teams can meet, but your’s cannot. Many of these “qualifications” are just superficial reasons for why the Mariners haven’t made the postseason in recent history instead of taking an honest look (because that’s a lot more depressing). Nonetheless, there could be a simple goal for the Mariners that could dramatically increase their playoff chances.

That goal? Have a six-game winning streak sometime in the last two months of the season. The emphasis here is on “simple”, not easy. As we just saw, the Mariners dropped two out of three games to the cellar-dwelling Texas Rangers. Would that have been a good series to start a streak? Of course.

So why is the number six? Out of the last 56 playoff teams (dating back to 2016), 53 of them have had a winning streak greater than or equal to their longest losing streak. That rounds to a whopping 95% of teams. The Mariners have a season-high winning streak of five games and a season-high losing streak of 6 games. As is, this leaves them to try and squeeze into the playoffs as a part of the 5% of teams that don’t fit this criterion.

Now, this isn’t a perfect indicator for making the playoffs. Since 2004 the Mariners have had three seasons where their longest winning streak has been greater than or equal to their longest losing streak and obviously missed the playoffs in those three years. It’s more accurately said that teams typically don’t make the postseason with losing streaks greater than winning streaks, rather than saying teams do make the postseason with winning streaks greater than losing streaks.

In 2019 and 2016, not a single team that didn’t fit this supposed “qualification” made the postseason. If the season ended today, all ten playoff teams would have a longer season-high winning streak than a losing streak.

The Mariners playoff indicator would be finding their way to a six-game winning streak.

To put this to the test, my answer to the question of “Will the Mariners make the postseason?” will completely depend on if they can win six games in a row before the end of the season.

Of course, there are other factors (which is why this is not a clear-cut criterion for playoffs) such as the success of the Athletics, Yankees, Blue Jays, and various other teams that are in the run for the wildcard.

You could also potentially look at this from the other side. If the Mariners set a new 2021 high by losing seven in a row, I believe that would be the kiss of death (If it didn’t already happen by losing a series to the Rangers). It would be pretty tough to gain ground if you don’t win a game for an entire week.