Some of you Seattle Mariners fans may be wondering, should I pick up Justin Dunn for my fantasy baseball team? My answer: yes you should.
The Boston College product has surprisingly been excellent, especially in terms of fantasy baseball. Justin Dunn still needs to work on his control issues, but he hasn’t allowed a lot of runs.
Justin Dunn doesn’t have the greatest advanced metrics, but it doesn’t matter
If you haven’t looked at Justin Dunn’s Baseball Savant already, you’re not missing much. The only positive numbers from Dunn’s advanced metrics are his hard-hit rate and xBA. He owns a .217 xBA and a 36.8% hard-hit rate, which are in the 73rd and 62nd percentile respectively.
But for fantasy baseball, those numbers don’t entirely matter. It might give you an idea of what to expect from Justin Dunn in the future, but all that really matters are the ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and wins.
After yesterday’s gem against the Texas Rangers, the 25-year-old has brought his ERA down to 3.18. His WHIP is at a solid 1.19 and has struck out 47 batters.
Justin Dunn himself probably won’t win you the league, but he can certainly add some stability to the back end of your starting rotation. For a player being owned in just 7.2% of ESPN fantasy leagues, a 3.18 ERA is pretty darn good.
If you compare Justin Dunn to other pitchers around the league like Austin Gomber, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Jake Arrieta, Dunn is arguably the best option out of all of them.
- Austin Gomber (23.1% owned) 4.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP
- Matthew Boyd (51.7% owned) 3.43 ERA and 1.13 WHIP
- Jameson Taillon (49.0% owned) 5.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP
- Jake Arrieta (43.2% owned) 4.37 ERA and 1.29 WHIP
Obviously, the four pitchers I just named are just a little more well-known than Justin Dunn, which is exactly why those players are owned more frequently. That being said, you should probably add Dunn to your fantasy baseball team before non-Mariners fans realize how good he has been.
Not only does Justin Dunn have decent season numbers, he has also been trending in the right direction. Over the last 15 days, he now owns a 2.20 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP. The Seattle Mariners pitcher has also struck out 21 batters over 16.1 innings.
Over the last 30 days, Dunn owns a 2.52 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. He has also struck out 29 batters over 25 innings. One other thing to note is that Justin Dunn doesn’t allow very many hits.
This season, he has allowed 27 hits in 45.1 innings. Even some of the best pitchers have a 7:10 hits to innings ratio but Justin Dunn is sitting right around 6:10. For example, Gerrit Cole has allowed 50 hits in 70.2 innings (~7:10).
That being said, the main area that has hurt Dunn has been the walks. So if he is able to fix his walks (which I think he will over time), there will be even fewer runners on base which means fewer opportunities for the opponent to score.
To me, Justin Dunn seems like a very good waiver pick-up for the short term and the long term. I don’t really expect him to be an All-Star but you never know.