Prediction: 5 Mariners that could make the All-Star team

Opening Day is tomorrow, so we have to do all of our pre-season predictions today! I made some early Mariners All-Star predictions two months ago, but now we need a refreshed version on who I think is going to Atlanta this summer.

In January, I listed Marco Gonzales, Kyle Lewis, Tom Murphy, and Justus Sheffield as my candidates to represent the Mariners. But this time, I am going to change things up by a bit. You could even consider some of my predictions as bold.

Mariners All-Star prediction no. 1 – James Paxton

James Paxton has yet to make the All-Star team, and I have a feeling that the “Big Maple” is going to have a huge season after returning “home” to Seattle. Paxton was Seattle’s fourth-round pick in 2010 and he has pitched like one since being drafted.

The 32-year-old veteran owns a career 3.58 ERA, a 3.31 FIP, and 829 strikeouts. When he was with Seattle for six years, he had a 3.42 ERA and 3.13 FIP. While with the Yankees, he posted a 4.16 ERA and 3.92 FIP.

With this prediction, I am hoping for a little luck and a big turnaround. Paxton’s numbers haven’t been trending in the right direction since the best season of his career. In 2017, he posted a 2.98 ERA, 2.61 FIP, .259 xwOBA, and a 2.87 xERA. Since then, he has declined but not to the point where he doesn’t provide value to a team.

In 2019, he posted a 3.82 ERA, 3.86 FIP, .291 xwOBA, and a 3.77 xERA. As I said, it’s not bad but it’s not what we associate with prime James Paxton. Last year, his numbers dropped even further but that was mostly a result of injuries.

Based on how he pitched in Spring Training, there is every reason to believe that he can bounce back. In 8.1 innings in the Cactus League, he allowed just one run. The Big Maple only gave up four hits and four walks, while striking out 17 batters.

I hope we get to see the 2017 version of James Paxton, and I am confident that we will. Now onto the second prediction.

Mariners All-Star predictions no. 2 – Ty France

It seems as if the Mariners were lucky to acquire Ty France in the trade package from the Padres last year. Taylor Trammell and Andres Munoz were the main players of focus in the package, but France is certainly putting his name into the spotlight.

Last season, he finished with a .362 wOBA and .430 xSLG. Both ranked in the 76th and 75th percentile of the MLB respectively. The Mariners infielder has continued his hot hitting into Spring Training is finished with the second-highest OPS on the team.

France batted .327 and slugged .714 in Arizona. He also led the team with five home runs (the league leader had eight). What is even more amazing is how many times he struck out. The 26-year-old struck out just seven times.

If you compare him to other power bats in the Mariners lineup, Mitch Haniger struck out 13 times, Julio Rodriguez struck out 11 times, and Evan White struck out 10 times. France’s plate discipline plus his natural hitting ability is an amazing sight to see, which is exactly why he is one of my candidates to be on the All-Star team.

2021 will be an exciting year for France because he will be hitting at the heart of the order while playing every day. In his first two seasons in the MLB, he hasn’t received consistent playing time yet so it will be a good confidence booster for him as well.

Now onto my third prediction.

Mariners All-Star prediction no. 4 – Mitch Haniger

For my fourth All-Star prediction, I am going with Mitch Haniger. He and Kyle Seager are the only Mariners players to appear in an All-Star game and I think he can make his second mid-summer classic of his career.

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Obviously, the veteran outfielder has missed a lot of time and has taken a long road back but he’s healthy and firing on all cylinders. The 30-year-old was off to a great start to Spring Training and has cooled down a bit, but his numbers are still promising.

He finished the Cactus League with a .234 average and .818 OPS. Haniger has also hit three home runs and driven in eight runs. The outfielder has also hit two doubles, one triple, and managed to keep his strikeouts down despite missing most of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season.

I am hoping Mitch can get back to his 2018 All-Star ways. That year, he hit 26 home runs and hit for a .285 batting average which seems more than doable from Mitch Haniger when healthy. Let’s hope he can stay on the field this season and shows us what he’s been working on in the lab.

Now onto the final Mariners All-Star prediction.

Mariners All-Star predictions no. 5 – Anthony Misiewicz

My fifth and final All-Star prediction might seem a bit of a surprise, but hear me out. Anthony Misiewicz had one of the best, if not the best, advanced metrics in the Mariners bullpen last season. The former 18th round pick of the 2015 MLB Draft posted these stats last year:

xwOBA: 76th percentile

xERA: 76th percentile

xSLG: 73rd percentile

Barrel percentage: 98th

Strikeout percentage: 81st

Walk rate: 68th

Whiff rate: 79th

Fastball spin rate: 81st

Curve spin rate: 86th

Phew, that’s a lot of numbers right? Keep in mind, he did all of this in his first season in the big leagues. The 26-year-old continued his performances into this year’s Spring Training.

Anthony threw 8.1 innings and allowed just one earned run. That one run came off of a mistake pitch that was hit over the fence. He’s also struck out eight batters while only allowing one walk and three hits.

I know it’s hard for bullpen pitchers to make the All-Star team, especially for those that aren’t closers. But based on the small sample size, I have every reason to believe that Misiewicz could be deserving of a spot on the All-Star team this year.

Plus, the Mariners haven’t yet announced the official closer for the 2021 season and Misiewicz could be a sneaky candidate. ESPN currently lists Rafael Montero as the closer, and Kendall Graveman as next in line, but don’t sleep on the 26-year-old southpaw.

All this to say, these are all predictions and anything could happen this year. It’s hard for five players to make the All-Star team from one team, but I think it’s viable to say that at least two of these players should make it. Opening Day is tomorrow which marks the beginning of a fun season of Mariners baseball.