Kyle Seager is heading into his 11th season in the majors with the Seattle Mariners. What is the bare minimum that we can expect from him heading into the upcoming season?
It’s a bit tough to answer. You have to ride the line of what is acceptable and what we want as fans. Of course, we would want him to have a great season, but we need to take a step back and think about what we would be okay with him accomplishing during 2021.
Let’s start by taking a look at his batting average. Since turning 30, he hasn’t been the same hitter in this department. Prior to then, he was a career .263 hitter. Nothing special, but it was definitely good enough to make him dangerous. Since then though, he has only been a .231 hitter.
Like his batting average, Seager has struggled on defense since he turned 30. Taking a look at his dWAR, he has a combined -0.3. In his first seven seasons, he turned in an impressive 6.3 dWAR with a Gold Glove in 2014 as well.
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Can the Seattle Mariners expect, at the bare minimum, for Kyle Seager to up his batting average and defensive numbers back to his pre-30 form?
The most consistent part of Seager’s game has been his home runs. Every year (if he projects out to a full season) he ends up with between 20-30 home runs. Never under, and never over. He’s been pretty consistent in doubles as well, hitting between 27-37 (again, projecting to a full season.)
There is some more good news. Although it was his tenth season, he had a career-high BB rate and a career-low strikeout rate. If he can continue those trends, we are going to see him put more balls in play than ever before, and get on base just as often as he did when he was hitting in the .260’s. His at-bat per RBI rate was a career-high as well, showing that as the Mariner’s talent around him increases, he drives in more when shown the opportunities.
At a bare minimum, here is what I think we could expect from Kyle Seager. A .230 average, 20 home runs, and 25 doubles, with a defense that sits right around 0.0. We should see around 70 RBI as well. This is assuming that we see around 650 plate appearances, which has been the norm throughout his career. To put it all in one line…
.230/.330/.430. 20 home runs. 25 doubles. 70 RBI. 0.0 dWAR.
If Kyle Seager can match his career-highs
Just for funsies, here is what we could expect if Kyle Seager manages to match his career-high in each stat, but projected over the entire upcoming season. As a side note, if he is able to do that, there is almost no chance he is still with the team after the trade deadline. Maybe to the Nationals? Who knows.
.278/.359/.499. 30 Homeruns. 37 doubles. 99 RBI. 2.2 dWAR.
I don’t expect that second set of numbers, but it sure would be nice to see. When it comes to the bare minimum, don’t expect anything too spectacular from Kyle Seager. It’s going to be a decent season… although I’m still going to holdout hope that he puts it all together for one last go-round as the third baseman of the Seattle Mariners.