Is Marco Gonzales the ace of the future for the Seattle Mariners?

Seattle Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzales had a fantastic 2020 season but is he the ace of the future?

If there was an All-Star game in 2020, I would bet that Marco Gonzales would have made his first All-Star team. The current Seattle Mariners ace posted some incredible stats and almost led the Mariners to a late postseason run.

Marco posted a 7-2 record, with a 3.10 ERA and 136 ERA+. He struck out 64 batters, posted a 0.947 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9, 9.14 SO/BB, and 1.5 WAR.

The former St. Louis Cardinals first-round pick who the Mariners acquired in 2017 began to show promise in 2018, but he certainly turned it up a notch in 2020. The 28-year-old Gonzales is trending in the right direction and is nearing the peak age for MLB pitchers, but is it enough?

If you compare Marco Gonzales to the 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, Gonzales is not nearly on the same level as Bieber who had a 3.3 WAR, and 1.63 ERA in 2020. Or if you compare the Seattle Mariners ace to Trevor Bauer, who I think would be a great fit for Seattle, had a much better 2020 season. The free agent and NL Cy Young winner posted a 2.7 WAR with a 1.73 ERA.

I will first say that I love Marco Gonzales, and I am not in any way trying to say he is not good enough. But, if the Seattle Mariners want to take the next step forward in 2021 and beyond, adding a pitcher who is better than Marco is necessary. Here are three reasons why I think Gonzales will not remain as the Mariners ace.

Reason No. 1: Stats show that Marco’s offspeed pitches are very hittable

Marco Gonzales’ sinker and cutter were nearly untouchable according to Baseball Savant. In 2020, opposing batters had a batting average of .195 against his sinker. Against his cutter, batters only hit .188. These are extremely impressive numbers, and those two pitches accounted for roughly 70% of all the pitches he threw.

The other 30% of pitches include his changeup and curveball which are my sources of worry. In 2020, opposing batters had a .310 average against Marco’s changeup. As far as his curveball, the batters posted a .262 average. The easy answer might be to throw those pitches less or throw a different type of curveball or changeup, but that is a tall task.

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What makes Gonzales so effective is his ability to change the timing of hitters by mixing in a variety of pitches so he still needs his curveball and changeup despite their low effectiveness. His curveball had the highest K% out of his pitches in 2020, so it is not entirely a bad pitch to finish off batters. As a big leaguer, it can be hard to re-learn a pitch or change the grip and have it be immediately effective so that is not a viable solution either.

2019 was a similar story where batters hit .324 against his curveball. In 2020, batters slugged .571 against his changeup and slugged .405 against his curveball which is also a big number. The highest hard-hit % came off his curveball at 41.4%, compared to his sinker which was 32.2%.

There are some other statistics that are concerning in terms of how his stuff plays out. Part of these numbers are a result of his pitching style but are important to still consider. Marco’s whiff percentage is in the 9th percentile in the 2020 MLB rankings (the higher the better). His barrel percentage is in the 31st percentile. Marco’s fastball spin rate is in the 25th percentile, and his curveball spin rate is in the 23rd percentile.

Gonzales was still a very effective pitcher in 2020 and is trending in the right direction. But I do not think the numbers I listed above will improve dramatically over the next couple of years. Thus, I think Marco is not the BEST answer to lead the rotation. And I put an emphasis on best because he still would be a good ace in the MLB, but my point is the Seattle Mariners could do better. Moving on to reason No. 2.

Reason No. 3: In order to become a playoff team, the Seattle Mariners would need more than Marco Gonzalez anyways

We have seen numerous MLB playoff teams with star-studded starting rotations, for example, the Washington Nationals who have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. The most recent Tampa Bay Rays with Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, and Tyler Glasnow. The 2020 World Series champions had Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urias.

What is similar about these teams? They have at least three-star pitchers to lead the rotation. Even if Marco Gonzales can have two to three Cy Young Award seasons, it will not be nearly enough to compete against these big playoff teams like the Dodgers. Right now, the Seattle Mariners are going with a 24-year-old Justus Sheffield, a 29-year-old Yusei Kikuchi, a 25-year-old Justin Dunn, and hopefully Logan Gilbert all behind Gonzales in 2021.

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Sheffield is the only one that has proven himself after the 2020 regular season, and the rest of them remain dubbed as question marks. That being said, even if Marco and Justus turn into stars, that is only two. The Mariners are going to need at least three really good starting pitchers, and at least two average pitchers to be in the No. 4 and No. 5 spots in the rotation.

I am hoping Logan Gilbert will become the answer for the Mariners’ search for an ace. He certainly has the stuff that translates well as a front of the rotation pitcher in the big leagues. Better yet, if Gilbert, Sheffield, and Gonzales can form into a deadly trio, imagine what signing an ace would do to the Mariners’ starting rotation. Even further down the line, the Mariners have a few more pitching prospects in the pipeline: Emerson Hancock and George Kirby.

You may be saying that the Seattle Mariners have enough, that they won’t make a big move, they won’t spend money, etc. But If the Seattle Mariners want to become a legitimate contender for the World Series in the next couple of years, they cannot just sit back and expect the current players to pan out. Trust me, I really like Marco Gonzales and his leadership right now, but the rotation needs more.