J.P. Crawford: A Gold Glover at Shortstop… but is it enough?

Keeping J.P. Crawford

It’s what you would think of when taking a look at a 25-year-old shortstop who is fresh off a gold glove with four years of control left.

A part of this decision is about appeasing the fans. When was the last time that the Mariners had a promising young shortstop? Do you want to take a second and think about it? Go ahead, I’ll give you a minute.

You could argue Ketel Marte. That would be reasonable, but he doesn’t play that position anymore, switching once he left Seattle.

Brad Miller? I don’t think he fits the mold either. Sure, we liked him, but he didn’t have near the promise or ceiling that was assigned to Crawford.

Then there’s Mike Morse. Never really played as much shortstop as we thought he would, and struggled as a Mariner.

Yuniesky Betancourt had some pretty good seasons for the Mariners and did it while he was young. He was an okay defender, but again, he just wasn’t expected to be great.

Figure it out yet?

It’s the year 2001, and Alex Rodriguez is gone. Enter the young shortstop that the Mariners had traded for, along with Freddy Garcia (I miss that sweaty guy) for Randy Johnson. Carlos Guillen has played a bit like a utility guy, filling in behind David Bell, Mark McLemore, and A-Rod over the past two seasons.

He’s probably the last, real, prospect that we have had that seemed promising and had high expectations at shortstop. We’ve had nice seasons from Betancourt, Josh Wilson, and others, but Guillen was probably the last one. If you want to argue he doesn’t even count (He was 25, and probably didn’t have a season as Crawford has), I would understand.

That means the answer is A-Rod.

We haven’t had a real shortstop prospect produce this millennium. We’ve had prospects. We’ve had shortstops produce. What we haven’t had is both. That’s the biggest argument, to me, for keeping J.P. Crawford. It’s been so long since we have had hope and a legitimate answer at the position. I’m 32 now and was in middle school the last time it happened.

The Gold Glove defense is likely going to stay. It does in most cases. If the bat can pick up a little bit, we are going to be looking at Crawford sliding into the second tier of shortstops in baseball. He would still be below those top guys, but a Gold glove Defender who hits .255, with a decent eye, 10-15 homers a year, and 15-20 steals is nothing to scoff at, and would easily fill the role for the next ten years.

But what if… what if Crawford could become a good to a great hitter as well? Is it really that far fetched?

Crawford’s going to be 26. He is approaching his prime, and should still be improving, at least hopefully, over the next couple of years. He hit .255, with two homers, six steals, and a decent eye, holding an OBP eighty points over his average.

What if he improves the average to .270? Finds a bit of power like division hopefully rival Andrelton Simmons did in a few of his season, and ends up in the 15 home run range. The speed stays there, and the steals increase as he gets on a bit more from the better average. Six steals in 50 games becomes 25 steals in a full season. The OBP separation stays about the same, and he ends up with a slash line of 270/355/385.

Gold Glove defense. A 15/25 split on homers and steals. Good average.

That sounds like a solid foundational piece that the team could help build around, planning on being a part of the squad long term, hopefully with Rodriguez, Kelenic, and some of the other top prospects the team is going to be seeing over the next few years.

Jettisoning J.P.

There’s a common folly that fans can fall into, and it’s valuing a member of the team you root for higher than where they actually should be. We have had guys like Griffey, the Big Unit, and Edgar, who are unquestionably one of the greatest to ever play their position. Those aren’t the arguments I’m talking about.

When you have a talented young guy, it can be easy to overrate him. After his Gold Glove, and having sent out Segura, are we doing just that with Crawford?

Let’s start with defense. Crawford won the Gold Glove with a 0.9 DWar, at least according to Baseball Reference. It was a great rate and comes from a decent sample size of 53 games, good enough to get him into the top ten of all players on the season. Let’s multiply that out to a full season, subtracting a bit for late-season attrition, and say he finishes at 2.5 DWar. How does that compare to the last few years, at least of shortstops?

Pretty good, it turns out. Check out how he would finish both as a shortstop, and for his ranking in all of baseball.

• 2019 – SS: 3rd – Overall: 6th
• 2018 – SS: 3rd – Overall: T-4th
• 2017 – SS: 2nd – Overall: T-4th
• 2016 – SS: 3rd – Overall: 7th
• 2015 – SS: 3rd – Overall: T-6th

His defense isn’t going to be a problem if he keeps it up. Turning in 2.5 DWar each year puts you solidly in the top ten overall, and in the top three at the position.

What about offense though?

He hit a career-best .255 this year, 33 points above his career average. To avoid falling into the trap of rating someone too highly, that I mentioned above, let’s keep those numbers going forward.

With a slash line of .255/.336/.338, there is a lot left to be desired at the plate. In fact, he is just about the opposite of a qualified hitter as he is as a defender. That top three ranking on defense is offset by quite a poor ranking on offense when compared to the qualified hitters at shortstop.

There are around 20 hitters that qualified, depending on where you look. Let’s take MLB.com, since it’s the site of the sport being played, to see that there are 22 qualified shortstops. Here’s exactly how poor Crawford was at hitting in 2020.

• Batting Average: .255 – 19th
• On Base: .336 – 11th
• Slugging: .338 – 22nd, dead last by 16 points
• Homeruns: 2 HR – 22nd, dead last again
• Steals: 6 SB – 6th… but caught three times. not a great success rate, and below league average

It’s not great. Again, only about a third of the season was played in 2020, but you have to go off something. Baseball likely is for arbitration numbers, just expanding/projecting out into a full season.

If this is what Crawford is going to do on offense, we are potentially looking at a poor man’s Andrelton Simmons. Less average, less pop, less defense.

Let’s move over to Fangraphs for a cleaner look at War and rankings. Not to try and cherry-pick, but because they have a nice, clean, easy to sort mode to look at stats. Of the 23 qualified shortstops in 2020, J.P. Crawford was 16th. This means, according to them at least, that he was a below-average shortstop in 2020.

Keep him… or trade him?

When we get to the question of keeping J.P. Crawford, it all depends on whether or not you think he is going to keep growing on offense.

If he can turn into the hitter that I mentioned, approaching a combo of 35-40 homers and steals, with a 270/350/380 type slash line, he would have to be mentioned with the best shortstops in baseball. He’s never going to hit for power like Story or put up the kind of numbers that you would see from Lindor.

He is going to be one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball for the next decade. This isn’t 1994 though, and a top defensive shortstop with the bottom of qualifier offensive numbers just isn’t good enough anymore.

It’s tough, we have waited so long in Seattle for a good shortstop. Not just good, but young, with a high ceiling as well. A real, respectable prospect that you could build around.

It’s what every fan base wants, which was why Crawford was so highly-touted when he was sitting as the number two prospect in all of baseball.

I’m split. A lifelong fan, he seems like exactly what we need. Is it enough though? Would we be settling with Crawford, taking someone just above mediocrity after literal decades of below-average play?

When it comes down to it, I think we should trade him and look for an upgrade. I’m worried that the offense isn’t going to show up, and we are going to be looking at a poor man’s Andrelton Simmons. Not elite defense (still great though), and a below-average bat. Someone who holds onto the position into their 30’s, never good enough to love, but not bad enough to replace.

What about you? Should the Seattle Mariners keep the talented young Gold Glove shortstop? Or should Trader Jerry put J.P. Crawford back on the market? My answer is to roll the dice and trade J.P. Crawford for a stronger candidate for the position.