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Seattle Mariners: To pursue or not pursue Corey Kluber
34-year-old Corey Kluber is a 2021 free agent. Should the Mariners pursue the two time Cy Young Award winner?
At one point, Corey Kluber was one of the scariest pitchers to face as a batter. The former Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers pitcher has won two Cy Young Awards and was an All-Star three times. Kluber had five consecutive dominant seasons from 2014 to the 2018 season, all with the Indians.
Kluber missed most of the 2019 season with a fractured ulna bone in his throwing arm and the Indians did not see him as part of their future with young pitchers making their way up in the organization. In December of 2019, the Indians shipped off their veteran starting pitcher to the Rangers who only had one more year on his contract.
The Rangers did not give up much in return to bring in the injured Kluber, who was a high risk / high reward asset at the time. The team was excited for Kluber to pitch in 2020 after his solid intrasquad outings during summer camp. In his first 2020 outing against the Rockies, Kluber was pulled after the first inning due to right shoulder tightness. He would later be diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in the back of his right shoulder.
As you could imagine, the Rangers declined Corey Kluber’s club option for $18 million. Kluber was recently cleared for his normal offseason routine so he will begin working his way back for a 2021 season. Now the big question remains, should Jerry Dipoto and the Seattle Mariners pursue Kluber or not?
Mariners should not invest too heavily in Kluber because he has not pitched an entire season since 2018
As mentioned earlier, Kluber has dealt with injuries in the past couple of seasons. He has only pitched 36.2 innings in 2019 and 2020 combined. This is a discouraging sign for the Mariners organization, and quite frankly the entire league. The Rangers took a chance on Kluber bouncing back by trading for him and that backfired.
Corey Kluber is also 34-years-old and is not going to get any younger. But at the same time, Kluber was a late bloomer considering his All-Star seasons were in his early 30’s. According to FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity has been on a downward trend.
- 2013: 93.8mph
- 2014: 94.6mph
- 2015: 93.6mph
- 2016: 93.4mph
- 2017: 92.9mph
- 2018: 92.4mph
- 2019: 92.3mph (35.2 innings)
- 2020: 92.1mph (one inning)
Outside of the fact that he has missed time, and his fastball average velocity is slightly dropping, there is not a whole lot of glaring numbers to look at. 2019 and 2020 numbers are not of sufficient size to compare to his Cy Young like seasons with the Indians. The start of the 2018 season is somewhat of a red flag because, in his seven starts, he recorded a 5.80 ERA. Kluber was able to maintain a high strikeout rate but was giving up a lot more hits compared to usual. At the same time, Kluber was not able to finish the season and lower his ERA which he could have done.
But, what we do know is that the Mariners pitching staff already has competition and Kluber might not be worth the money.
Current starting pitcher options ranked:
- Marco Gonzales
- Justus Sheffield
- Justin Dunn
- Yusei Kikuchi
- Nick Margevicius
- Ljay Newsome
The current starting rotation will not frankly lead us to a postseason, based on past performances. But, Gonzales and Sheffield made huge improvements in 2020 and are looking like reliable pitchers for the Mariners. Dunn also improved which is promising. Margevicius filled in nicely. Newsome was a spot starter. And Kikuchi still struggled and could be the last piece of the puzzle if he can turn things around.
Kluber would be a nice addition but the expectation is that he will be in high demand. When demand is high, the player has the leverage to bargain and get the best deal. The Mariners are in a spot where they need another really good starting pitcher, or a few more safety picks for depth. The Mariners have an opportunity to bring in an ace like Trevor Bauer and someone of his caliber is worth the money.
Kluber on the other hand may be asking for too much, as a player who has barely played the last two seasons. Kluber is an extremely high-risk player but has the potential to be a star player like he was in 2016-2018.
The Mariners should sign Corey Kluber because he is still Corey Kluber
Although I just shared reasons why Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners should not sign Kluber, there are also reasons why he would be a good investment. The story of the Seattle 2020 season is the young group of players showed up in numerous ways. Kyle Lewis is leading the ROY race, Evan White and J.P. Crawford won Gold Gloves, some bullpen pitchers had good 2020 seasons and contributions from others.
What is still missing in this Jerry Dipoto rebuild which is starting to look better after every season is a veteran presence. Kyle Seager is the only Mariners play right now to be born before 1990. Having an abundance of young players with many more on their way in 2021 and 2022 is a good problem to have, but having a good balance can change the team.
Seager seems to be a great influence on the young offense as a 10-season tenured Seattle Mariners player, but there is not much playoff experience in the team. Corey Kluber is 34-years-old, who has two Cy Young’s under his belt. On top of that, Kluber was a part of four postseasons with the Indians. In 2016, he helped lead the Indians to a World Series appearance where they ended up losing to the Chicago Cubs in seven games.
At some point, the Mariners are going to sign or trade for veteran players who can help the team win and build a winning culture. Kluber could be the first of many for Dipoto to help the Mariners team develop into a playoff team.
Going back to his numbers, he has not really declined despite his age. Kluber was a late bloomer and peaked in his early 30’s and the only thing that has prevented him from being an elite free-agent target is the injuries. The 2019 injury he sustained was a matter of bad luck. Kluber fractured his ulna after being hit by a scorching line drive off the bat.
Kluber was able to recover quite well from the ulna fracture, which is basically your forearm. His 2020 was obviously uneventful after missing the entire season to a shoulder problem. But prior to Kluber’s shoulder injury, he looked good in summer workouts with the Rangers and was averaging a 92.1mph fastball in the one inning he did pitch in 2020. I still find it impressive that Kluber can throw above 90mph with a great mix of offspeed pitches even as a 34-year-old.
As stated on the previous page, the Mariners are not in dire need of starting pitchers, but it is an area that Dipoto could get an upgrade in. I would much rather sign a player like Trevor Bauer who had a career year, but he will be one of the most expensive players this offseason. The Mariners might be able to afford him, but Dipoto has to weigh the costs of committing to one player, as opposed to signing multiple this offseason.
I would also think Charlie Morton would be a safer pick than Corey Kluber because Morton has proven his stuff is still good the past couple of years even as a 37-year old. Morton had an outstanding 2020 postseason. Kluber might have the better resume, but missing the last two seasons is a huge risk to bet on.
The inherent risk of signing Kluber is obvious, but the potential reward is impossible to ignore. If Kluber is at his best, he is one of the most dominant pitchers in the MLB and would surely lead the Mariners starting rotation. Just imagine a Cy Young Corey Kluber followed by a growing Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield. That seems like a fantasy, but it is not so much of a fantasy as you may think.
Charlie Morton | Mariners potential free agent target. dark. Next
If Dipoto can get a bargain one or two-year deal with Kluber, it will absolutely be worth taking the risk on. But if Kluber is asking for a three to a four-year deal, with an annual salary of $10m+, I would think it is a no-deal for the Mariners. It will be an interesting offseason as I imagine Dipoto being extremely busy as the Mariners’ future looks brighter and brighter.