Sodo Mojo’s Top 40 Seattle Mariners Prospects: 15-11

The Cactus League season is underway and the Mariners young players are playing quite well. But we continue to move along, unveiling our Top 40 Mariners prospects 5 at a time.

Today, we continue our official countdown, revealing the next 5 prospects to crack our Top 40 list. As we move up the list, more or more names will be familiar to Mariners fans. These are exciting times, so let’s get to it.

But before we do, let’s review our process. First, the rankers consisted of 4 staff writers. All 4 writers produced a list of their top prospects. The average rank of each player is the spot they landed on our list. In this case, the lower the number, the higher the rank.

Our rankers were not given any criteria for their list. Different eyes see different things and unique minds value things differently than others. There are no cookie cutters for prospect scouting and beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Also, take these ranks with a grain of salt. We do not get to see many of these players often and are relying on graining video, scouting reports, and statistics to cover our bases. If you want top-end prospect ranks, I suggest Keith Law of ESPN as well as Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel.

Without any further delay, let’s get started.

For the record, Juan Then tied Braden Bishop for this spot in our ranks, but we asked you guys to break the tie and this was the result. So a player who was traded by the Jerry Dipoto only to be re-acquired by Dipoto lands at #15 on our countdown, which isn’t too bad for a player most people scoffed at as the return for Edwin Encarnacion last June.

Juan Then is a 20-year-old, RHP who stands 6’1″ and weighs just 175 lbs. Despite his slight frame, Then can pump the fastball up to 94 MPH and sits in the 91-92 range with good riding life and solid spin rates. In addition to the heater, Then also has a changeup and slurvy slider, both of which have a good chance to be average or better MLB offerings.

The slider is his best pitch and it will occasionally flash as a 60-grade offering. The changeup is behind the other two offerings but shows promise. Then throws the changeup a bit too firm and doesn’t trust the pitch enough to use it often, something that will need to change for him to hit his ceiling.

Then throws a lot of strikes for a player his age and peppers the strike zone with quality pitches, giving him a 55-grade command. If Then maxes out his arsenal, he could be a #3 starter in the next 5 years and an MLB debut sometime in 2021 isn’t out of the question.

3 years ago, a prospect with tools like Jake Fraley would have likely landed him inside the team’s top 5 on a list like this. Fraley checks a lot of the boxes you look for in an everyday player. He has the size, standing at 6’0″, 195 lbs. He has the speed, earning 65-grade marks from scouts. Fraley also has average or better raw power and is an above-average defensive centerfielder. Fraley is, in short, a really good prospect.

Acquired as a bit of an afterthought in the Mike Zunino for Mallex Smith trade, Fraley set out to prove that his surge in 2018 as a member of the Rays organization was repeatable. For the most part, Fraley did just that, producing in both AA and AAA before getting a cup of coffee with Seattle in September.

Fraley has average or better tools across the board, with the exception of his throwing arm, which is firmly below-average. Fraley is a good centerfielder but may be pushed to left field thanks to some other solid option in the Mariners organization. 2020 will go a long way in determining Fraley’s future in Seattle.

The two things he needs to prove is that he is healthy and that he can manage against left-handed pitching. If he can check both of those boxes, he profiles as a solid, everyday leadoff hitter with a lot of pop. If not, he should still be a serviceable 4th outfielder or a strong side platoon player.

Fraley is trying to win a job on the Opening Day roster and looks to be in line to start in left field on March 26th against the Rangers. If not, Fraley will likely begin the season in AAA Tacoma, but won’t be down long. Expect Fraley to get a lot of playing time at the big league level this season.

If Fraley proves to be an everyday player, his game may remind some fans of Brett Gardner or Johnny Damon, two comps that should leave Mariners fans very happy.

When Sam Carlson was selected in the second round of the 2017 draft, it was perhaps the most applauded move of the young Jerry Dipoto regime. Carlson was a Top 20 talent of the draft, with legitimate #2 upside and a high probability of success.

But Carlson’s path to the majors got derailed early after undergoing Tommy John Surgery after 4 pro innings. The injury and the ensuing rehab cost the young Carlson two full seasons of growth.

But Carlson is now healthy and figures to restart his path to the big leagues in 2020. Coming out of high school, Carlson had 3 MLB quality offerings, including a 93 MPH fastball with life that touched 97, a good breaking ball, and a plus changeup throw with great arm action and fade.

Carlson is a great athlete. So much so, that had he not signed with the Mariners, he was headed to be a pitcher and outfielder at the University of Florida. Carlson looks the part of a big leaguer and spent the last two seasons rehabbing from the surgery and putting in serious time in the gym.

Carlson has the work ethic, stuff, size, baseball IQ, and athleticism to be a #2 starter down the line. Seattle will need to be patient as Carlson works himself back, but the reward is well worth the wait.

Wrapping up this portion of the list is a player quickly climbing the charts of Mariner’s fans favorites, Kyle Lewis. The story of Kyle Lewis is pretty well known at this point. He was a superstar prospect who suffered a major knee injury just a month into his pro career and spent the better part of 2 seasons just trying to get and stay healthy.

He finally accomplished this in 2019 and after a decent season in AA Arkansas, he made his MLB debut last September. Lewis wasted no time in showing off his best tool, his power, by hitting 3 home runs against the Reds in his first series.

Lewis would finish 2019 with 6 home runs in 75 PAs, slugging .592 in that time. The home run surge sent fans celebrating the young player as a major building block of the franchise going forward. And, to be fair, I don’t think it is unfair to feel this way. Kyle Lewis is a good prospect.

But as much as we want to celebrate the former first-round pick, you and I need to be willing to look at the areas of concern. The biggest being his 38.7% strikeout rate and his 4.0% walk rate. These are major issues that cannot be ignored, no matter how much you liked the home run power.

Lewis struck out nearly 30% of the time in AA Arkansas, so this wasn’t just a one-month thing in September. Lewis has to put the ball in play more this season and he needs to take more walks. Thankfully, the latter hasn’t been a major problem and should return with positive regression.

But for Lewis to get to his other considerable tools, he will need to make more contact. It really is that simple. And if he can do that, the Mariners could see Kyle Lewis hit .260/.340/.550 with 30-35 home runs and above-average to great defense in either left or right field. That is on the spectrum of potential outcomes.

Seattle may be wise to send Lewis to AAA Tacoma, at least early in the season, to help with his contact issues. But Jerry Dipoto seems to be adamant that Lewis will be on the Opening Day roster and in the lineup in right field against the Texas Rangers on March 26th, so expect that to be the case.