5 Non-tendered targets the Seattle Mariners should pursue

4. Jimmy Nelson

Two years ago, it was laughable to assume Jimmy Nelson would be non-tendered in the winter of 2019. But after missing all of 2018 and most of 2019 with injury, that has been the case. It is a real shame too, since the last time we saw a healthy Nelson, he was pitching like an All-Star.

In his last full season in 2017, Nelson posted a 3.05 FIP, a 10.21 K/9, a 2.46 BB/9, with a 50.3% groundball rate, all on his way to a 4.8 fWAR. Unfortunately for Nelson, the shoulder is what plagues him, not his elbow. Shoulder injuries are now much worse than Tommy John surgeries and many careers have been seriously diminished by similar injuries.

However, the same logic applied to Gausman also fits here. The Mariners have a rotation spot open, at least for part of 2020. Seattle is a good place to pitch and their track record of developing pitchers is quickly earning a great reputation around the game.

Nelson’s fastball and curveball spin rates are still well-above-average. There is still upside in his game and if the shoulder injury checks out, he is worth the gamble. Nelson has #2 starter upside and while a contract like the one given to Graveman may be wishful thinking, it is something worth exploring.

(Quick side note, Travis Shaw is super interesting as well. Not a great fit, but the bat is hard to ignore.)

3. Aaron Sanchez

Yes, another RHP coming off an injury. Are you seeing a pattern? Aaron Sanchez is perhaps the most interesting name to be non-tendered yesterday. A former Cy Young contender who has been ravaged by injuries and poor performance is now available in free agency and the price tag could be at an all-time low.

Sanchez’s 2019 season ended with a shoulder injury and it is expected to linger into 2020. It is unclear how much time he could miss, but that is something we won’t know until Sanchez is checked out by team doctors.

Houston took a chance on Sanchez at the trade deadline, thanks in large part to the elite spin rate Sanchez can put on his curveball. Despite that ability to “spin it”, Sanchez used the curveball as more of a third offering, preferring instead to use his four-seam fastball and sinker.

The sinker and fastball have been incrementally worse every year since 2016, but the curveball has remained an above-average to great pitch ever since. Sanchez should re-brand his curveball as his out pitch and in 2019, he appeared to be making that transition, throwing the curve a career-high 23% of the time.

He still shows good velocity on the sinking fastball (93-94 MPH) and has shown an above-average changeup in recent years. The solution to fixing Sanchez could be as simple as changing his pitch mix.

For the past 3 years, Sanchez has been using his two worst pitches significantly more than his two best offerings. Houston was beginning to change that before the shoulder injury. Seattle is a natural fit to help continue that trend.

The Mariners have a spot to give and one that comes with relatively low pressure to succeed right away. Sanchez is the ultimate scratch-off lottery ticket. There is a low cost and high reward factor that shouldn’t be ignored. Get it done, Jerry.

2. Blake Treinen

Do you guys remember when Blake Treinen was going shot for shot with Edwin Diaz for the best reliever in the AL in 2018? Man, have things changed. After a dominant 2018 season, Treinen crashed hard in 2019 and now finds himself without a job.

In 2018, Treinen was as elite as elite gets, posting a 0.78 ERA, a 1.82 FIP, an 11.2 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, with a 51% groundball rate on his way to a 3.6 fWAR season in 80 innings. For a reliever, these are the equivalent of MVP numbers.

Well, 2019 was not so kind. In 58.2 innings, Treinen saw his ERA jump to 4.91 and his FIP rise to 5.14. His K/9 dropped by 2 full points and his BB/9 more than doubled until he was removed from the closer’s gig in favor of Liam Hendricks.

Those struggles, combined with a near $10 million projected salary in 2020, led to the Oakland A’s decision to let Treinen become a free agent, suggesting the trade value just wasn’t there. So all this begs the question: why should the Mariners be interested?

For starters, the stuff is still really good, with a sinking fastball in the upper-90s and a cutter and slider that gets swings and misses.

Second, we go back to what is becoming evident with the Mariners: they are great at developing pitchers. Getting Treinen into your system and working with your staff could turn him from non-tender fodder to All-Star closer with extreme trade value in July.

But why would Treinen be interested in Seattle? Again, the glowing reputation of pitcher development. The opportunity to close games in a low-pressure situation is a plus. The Mariners have money to spend. These are all selling points for an arm like Treinen, similar to the way they nabbed Carl Edwards Jr., just on a more expensive scale.

1. Taijuan Walker

Yes. It is time to bring the young “Sky” Walker home. Taijuan Walker was not offered a contract by the Arizona Diamondbacks, making him a free agent and making way for a rarity in professional sports: a potential homecoming that actually makes sense for both sides.

For what must be the 20th time in this article, remember that the Mariners’ reputation for developing arms is one of the best in the game. Walker is still just 27-years-old with only 528 innings of wear and tear on his arm.

Walker has missed most of the past 2 seasons dealing with recovery from Tommy John surgery and a capsule strain in his right shoulder but was actually quite good for the Diamondbacks during his one healthy season with them.

In 2017, Walker posted a 3.49 ERA, a 4.04 FIP, with an 8.35 K/9 and a 3.49 BB/9. In addition, he also produced a 48% groundball rate, all on his way to a solid 2.5 fWAR season in 157 innings pitched.

Walker is still a good athlete with a 4 pitch mix. Once again, the Mariners need at least another starter to fill out their rotation (really 2 more) and Walker is familiar with the city and franchise. The key piece in the now-famous Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger acquisitions, Walker has a chance to return to Seattle.

The two sides are a good fit for each other. Seattle already signed an upside play coming off of Tommy John, so there willingness to double down is unknown. But if the Mariners are really looking for placeholders in the rotation with legitimate upside, offering Walker a Graveman like contract could be exactly what the doctor ordered. Plus, and I cannot stress this enough, Tai Walker is fun to watch. And in 2020, that could be a fun asset.

Well, there we have it. 5 names who make a lot of sense for the Mariners to consider. There are countless more out there, but these 5 instantly jumped out me. They are a good blend of probability to hit their upside while filling an important need for the 2020 big league club.

Other plays could make sense and there are now 57 more to choose from. But for now, these 5 should be the focus and hopefully, Dipoto doesn’t make us wait long to find out.