Seattle Mariners 2019 Rule 5 Draft Big Board: Top 5

The Seattle Mariners may not have made any moves to protect their eligible players from the Rule 5 draft, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be involved. If the past few years is any indication, they will make a selection this year.

Unlike the past two years, when the Mariners picked in the middle of the Rule 5 draft order, they’ll have the 6th pick this winter, which could help them land a useful piece for 2020 and beyond. With the Rule 5 player pool now known, there are a few names that should pique the interest of GM Jerry Dipoto.

Dipoto has made a selection in each of the past 2 Rule 5 drafts, selecting Mike Ford in the winter of 2017 and Brandon Brennan last winter. Brennan was an absolute success who, despite battling injuries, was one of the best relievers in the Mariners bullpen and showed high leverage stuff in stints this year.

And therein lies the goal of the Rule 5 draft: to find a player you think you can help get to their full potential. It is entirely possible that the Mariners do not select anybody in the Rule 5 next month, and if they don’t, it isn’t going to sink their off-season.

But if they do make a selection, there are a few names it would help to know about. So today, we present our 5 favorite Rule 5 Draft targets for your Seattle Mariners.

5. Griffin Jax

The Seattle Mariners need to take chances on fringy arms who could pop and that label applies to Minnesota Twins RHP Griffin Jax. He turns 25-years-old tomorrow and just wrapped up his 2019 season splitting time between AA and AAA.

He spent most of the season in AA Pensacola where he posted a 2.67 ERA, 84 strikeouts, 24 walks, a 1.10 WHIP, a 1.3 GO/FO ratio, and an OBA of .235. Jax uses his pitchability and commands more than his stuff to get hitters out, but he does it well.

At 6’2″, 195 lbs, Jax has a wiry build but is a hard worker in great shape and is a great athlete. The fastball sits 92 MPH but can hit 94 MPH, and throws a good fading changeup to back it up. He will use both pitches against lefties and righties and the combo is good enough to get hitters out.

The lack of a third offering is what is holding Jax back. He offers just a fringey breaking ball, a mediocre slider that doesn’t generate swings and misses. But the Mariners have shown an ability to both raise a pitchers fastball velo and teach new pitches, both of which could help Jax.

Ultimately, there is a lot of Andrew Moore in Jax, but if Seattle believes they can improve his slider or add velocity, he could be this year’s, Brandon Brennan.

4. Cristian Santana, CIF Los Angeles Dodgers

The next name on our list is a bit of a difficult fit on the Mariners roster. But thanks to his plus raw power and missile arm, Cristian Santana could be worth that risk. About to enter his age 23 season, Santana wrapped up a fairly successful season in AA Tulsa.

In 102 games and 399 AB, Santana hit .301/.320/.436 with 10 home runs, 22 doubles, and 57 RBI. Remember, AA didn’t use the Major League ball as AAA did, so while the power numbers are only okay, the offensive environment is favorable.

Santana is more raw tools than a polished hitter at this stage of his career. His bat speed is described as electrifying and as such, he carries a 65 raw power grade. However, he swings and misses quite a bit (88 strikeouts), thanks to his overly aggressive approach.

Santana is not the “control the zone” type of hitter Dipoto typically targets. He only walked 10 times last season. But when he does stay within the zone, he crushes the ball to all fields and can be a dangerous hitter.

Whether or not the Mariners think they can help Santana learn to control his aggression may determine whether or not Seattle even considers him. But the raw power is legitimate.

So too is his 65-grade arm. Santana has an absolute cannon and can make any throw needed on the baseball field. He isn’t a great defender at the moment, but currently carries an average grade at the hot corner. There are some concerns he may need to move to first, putting more pressure on his hit tool to mature.

But at 6’2″, 175 lbs., Santana still has room to add good weight and could push his raw power tool to near elite levels. Santana is definitely more of a project than an instant contributor but with the raw tools he has to work with, he will be a tempting option to many teams in the Rule 5 Draft.

2. Wander Javier

Perhaps the most talented player not protected today was Minnesota Twins shortstop prospect Wander Javier. The 20-year-old posses average or better tools across the board including above-average foot speed and a strong arm.

He should be able to handle shortstop, but could also handle third base down the line. Javier shows good ability to work counts and draw walks, especially for his age, and has the bat speed to hit .270 and club 15-20 home runs.

If everything goes right, Javier could spend half a decade hitting .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 HR power and average or better defense up the middle, which would be a very good player. Javier still has room to grow as well, currently sitting a 6’1″, 165 lbs.

However, 2019 was a struggle for Javier who was working his way back from labrum surgery that cost him all of 2018. In 80 games, Javier hit .177/.277/.323. He clearly needs more time in the minor leagues but the talent is interesting enough to at least have the conversation. Teams like the Tigers have taken players like Javier recently, but the success of those decisions is still up for debate.

Ultimately, the fact that Javier hasn’t played above A-ball (and didn’t even perform there) means he will likely squeak through the Rule 5 Draft. However, don’t be surprised if you hear his name called, as gambling on a potential everyday shortstop without giving anything of consequence up is very tempting indeed.

1. Zack Brown, RHP Milwaukee Brewers

Easily the biggest surprise of today came from the Milwaukee Brewers who decided not to protect one of their very best prospect, right-handed pitcher Zack Brown. Brown, who spent the entire season in AAA San Antonio, will more than likely be selected very early in the Rule 5 Draft. In fact, the odds of Brown falling to the 6th pick may be slim to none.

Brown isn’t a future ace or anything and he isn’t coming off a stellar season by any stretch. But what Brown could be is a solid, mid-rotation arm and those are extremely valuable. When Brown is on, he throws a sinking fastball that sits 92-95 with the ability to maintain velocity late into his starts.

He backs up the good heater with a plus curveball and has shown a good feel for a changeup which could leave him with 3 quality offerings. Brown is able to work both sides of the plate and earns high praise for his work ethic and baseball IQ, things the Mariners covet from their prospects.

Brown needs to clean up his delivery to have more consistent command. He walked 64 hitters in 116.2 innings in 2019 and his 4.94 BB/9 was a career-high. But in the past, Brown has hovered in the 3.5 BB/9 range, with over 8 K/9 as well.

2019 just wasn’t a great year for Brown but his track record should ease some of those concerns. His best trait is his ability to induce groundballs, which he did at a 56% clip in 2019. Brown is an excellent candidate to stash in the bullpen as an opener or low-leverage, multi-inning reliever early in 2019 while determining his future in Seattle.

If Brown hits his ceiling, he can be a groundball heavy, #4 starter similar in results to Mike Leake. While it isn’t an exciting comparison, Brown would be working for the league minimum for his first 3 seasons and could work his way into the future plans of Seattle at that time.

There is no downside in giving Brown a chance to figure himself out at the big league level. If he can, the Mariners may recoup enormous return on investment. Brown is exactly the type of player to gamble on in 2020 and if he is sitting on the board with the 6th pick in the Rule 5 Draft, the Mariners should jump at the opportunity to add him.