10 Under the Radar Trade Targets for Mariners: 5-1

5. Jeff Samardzija

Recently, we wrote about Samardzija as a potential trade target for the Mariners this off-season, so we don’t need to go into too much detail. For a more in-depth look, click here. But to keep things brief, Samardzija is a good pitcher who can help save innings on the young arms and recoup prospects in a trade this summer.

Samardzija is entering the final year of his contract and is due to make $19.5 million with the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco is looking to shed payroll this year and as such, players like Samardzija and Brandon Belt should be available.

Samardzija had a nice 2019 season, so he will have some interest around the league, especially if the Giants are willing to eat some of his salary. But that doesn’t mean the Mariners can’t acquire him.

Seattle has the payroll space to absorb the entire deal and Samardzija has an opportunity to gain value with a solid first half. He raises the floor of the current rotation and allows for the team to compete early without trying to rush Justin Dunn and Logan Gilbert.

Samardzija isn’t a sexy name and probably won’t be on the team past July, but rentals can have value to rebuilding teams as well. How great was Edwin Encarnacion for the Mariners in 2019? Samardzija could be more of the same on the pitching side of the game.

The cost to acquire won’t be cheap, but won’t cost you any top 10 prospects and probably nothing in the Top 15. In short, he is good, cheap, already on the block, and a great fit for Seattle’s needs for the first part of 2020. Samardzija makes a lot of sense and as such, finds his way onto our list.

4. Vince Velasquez, RHP Philadelphia Phillies

If you’ve followed the site with any regularity, you guys know I am a pretty big fan of Phillies RHP Nick Pivetta. So much so, calling him “under the radar” is probably hypocritical coming from me. The Mariners should be interested in Pivetta, but also Vince Velasquez as well.

Velasquez, who doesn’t turn 28-year-olds until June, has been a steady presence in the Phillies rotation since 2016 but was moved to the bullpen at the end of 2019 and it may be time for both sides to move on.

Velasquez certainly isn’t a bad pitcher by any stretch, but inconsistency has prevented him for reaching his ceiling. In his career, Velasquez has punched out 9.8 K/9 while posting a career 4.34 FIP. Rock-solid. Unfortunately, he also walks 3.48 hitter per nine and is susceptible to the long ball which is, let’s say a sub-par combination.

But the real question is whether or not Velasquez can provide league-average or better innings until the team believes Dunn and/or Gilbert is ready to face big-league hitters. Based on his track record which spans 99 big league starts, I think it’s safe to assume he can.

Unlike Samardzija, Velasquez has 2-years of club control and is scheduled to earn roughly $3.9 million in 2020 and will likely earn $7 millionish in 2021. Velasquez falls into the “opportunity buy” category that GM Jerry Dipoto has already admitted he thinks the team will be interested in.

He can give you 20 starts and if his home run rate drops outside of the bandbox in Philadelphia, he could get you some nice return in a trade next summer as he will have 1.5 years of club control remaining.

Velasquez is young enough that it is possible he pitches himself into the future plans for the team as well. The Mariners can basically use 2020 as an audition, using Velasquez as a starter until Dunn and Gilbert are ready, the transition him into the bullpen before deciding if they’ll bring him back in 2021.

There is a lot of roster flexibility that comes with acquiring 2-years of Velasquez and he should be relatively cheap to acquire as well. The Phillies may be looking for a centerfielder, so perhaps some form of Mallex Smith for Vince Velasquez makes sense for both teams.

3. Kyle Schwarber, OF Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are bizarrely looking to shed some payroll this winter and while Kris Bryant is the big name being floated, trading Kyle Schwarber and his projected $8 million salaries could make sense for the Cubs. So too could the Mariners acquiring him.

A few obvious holes in this balloon may stop it from getting off the ground so let’s address them. First, Schwarber is a true left fielder and the Mariners are loaded with corner outfielders. The second is Schwarber will be departing after the 2021 season, meaning he likely won’t be around when the team is expected to start winning 90 games on a consistent basis.

These two hurdles do limit the likelihood of this happening but 2 things should be remembered. First, Schwarber isn’t just an outfield only bat. He plays a decent left field and would be an upgrade over the likes of Domingo Santana (who wouldn’t).

Second, Schwarber is just 27-years-old and is a good, above-average, everyday player. Perhaps a move to first base is possible, or Schwarber straight up wins the left-field job for the next two years. Or heck, maybe the Mariners finally use the DH as most teams do, a rotation designed to get certain players half days off and get your matchup advantages in the lineup without sacrificing defense.

Schwarber is coming off a solid 2019 that saw him play in 155 games, hit .250/.339/.531, and slugged 38 home runs. This led to a 120 wRC+ and a solid 2.6 fWAR. He struggled a bit defensively, which hurt his value a bit.

But Schwarber knows his strike zone and fits the “control the zone” mantra of the Mariners well. Seattle isn’t in a position to scoff at adding talent, particularly talent who may just be entering their prime.

Schwarber would surely cost a nice little package but anything involving a player from inside the Top 8 or so prospects likely won’t be required. Only time will tell if the Cubs actually do dump salary, but if Schwarber’s name comes up in talks, the Mariners should be interested.

2. Amir Garrett, LHP Cincinnati Reds

So this may be the most interesting name on the list because unlike other players we have talked about, the likeliest path for the Mariners to acquire Garrett probably involves a big name player going back the other way.

I’m not suggesting that you trade Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, or Logan Gilbert for him. Or really any top prospect, but perhaps we have found the MLB piece that could sway Jerry Dipoto to move Mitch Haniger?

We know the Reds are looking for controllable bats and we know the Mariners have a few to offer, including Haniger. Obviously, it is fair to assume that Dipoto wouldn’t trade Haniger for just a bullpen arm so the deal would need to be bigger, but that’s not what we are here to discuss.

Instead, let’s talk about the player and why he is deserving of a spot on this list. Amir Garrett just wrapped up his second full-season coming out of the Reds bullpen and there are certainly some real positives to look at.

For starters, we can look at Garrett’s insane 12.54 K/9 and 53.9% groundball rates and see some serious upside. Of course, we can also look at his 5.63 BB/9 and his 19.4% HR/FB rate and make the argument the other direction.

But not allowing home runs was harder than ever this year and Garrett spent most of his year pitching in the bandbox of Cincinnati didn’t help. But despite those issues, he did post a 3.21 ERA and a 3.80 xFIP.

I’m not trying to sell you Garrett as an elite reliever, at least not yet, but the upside for it is there. Garrett was downright filthy the first part of 2019 before his command slipped even worse in the second half.

But aside from all of this, when Garrett throws strikes, he is nearly impossible to square up. Remember the high home run rate? A closer look at his numbers shows that Garrett ranked in the top 5 percent of all baseball in expected slugging percentage (xSLG), indicating some bad luck for him in the 2019 season.

Garrett also ranked in the 88th percentile in xBA (expected batting average) further suggesting that Garrett was a bit unlucky in 2019. There is no question about it, he needs to throw more quality strikes. But if he can, you could have a potential lights-out closer with 4-years of club control.

And considering the success Seattle had with arms like Connor Sadzeck and Austin Adams, it could be a massive opportunity to buy. As I mentioned, the Reds fancy themselves contenders in 2020, so trading a useful piece away would require sacrifice, but if the deal makes sense, this could be a golden opportunity.

1. Tommy Pham, OF Tampa Bay Rays

Alright, so we reach the end and it is time for some confessions. First, the numbering of these players from slots 1-10 wasn’t supposed to mean anything. These are just 10 guys I thought of and the order in which they show up is meaningless.

The other thing I would like to admit is that what I just told you is 100 true… for numbers 2-10. But Tommy Pham is actually my number 1 trade target this off-season. And yes, I understand the logistics of it. Adding another outfielder is tough.

But as we discussed with Eddie Rosario and Kyle Schwarber, it is still possible to make work. Let’s start with a question with the simplest answer: why is Tommy Pham going to be available? He’s a good player under contract and the Rays are a good team.

The answer? He is starting to get expensive, at least for the Rays. Pham is projected to earn $8.6 million next season. The Rays have 9 other arbitration-eligible players, totaling roughly $28 million of projected salary next season. Yes, there are some easy non-tender candidates but let’s be honest: the Rays are pretty cheap.

Trading Pham helps them recoup Major League value as well as add payroll flexibility going into the off-season. Plus, we couldn’t have a Mariners trade list and not have a Rays player make an appearance.

Now let’s get to why the Mariners may be interested in Pham. At 32-years-old and just 2-years of club control remaining, he doesn’t seem like an obvious fit for Seattle. But Pham is also a really good player, posting fWAR’s of 6.2, 4.1, and 3.3 the past 3 seasons.

He takes walks at an above-average clip, doesn’t strike out a ton, has 20-25 home run pop and has stolen 65 bases the past 3 seasons. His career slash line of .277/.373/.472 is outstanding and despite him exiting his athletic prime, Pham did hit .273/.369/.450 in 2019.

The big concern comes defensively as his productivity in the outfield has fallen each of the past 3 seasons. Pham was still about league average overall, but his outfielder jump metric was in the 23rd percentile, suggesting there is possibly a positioning tweak that could help.

Pham did rank in the 82 percentile in both hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity, leaving little doubt the bat will be just fine. Pham is an offensive threat that can hurt in a multitude of ways. If you think the defense is salvageable, he may be the most underrated player in baseball. So yeah, I think that is a good thing to add.

As for finding a deal that works, we find a tough sticking area. There isn’t an obvious line to draw on this deal unless the Rays are interested in using some of their prospect depth to acquire Mitch Haniger or Mallex Smith in such a deal.

But remember, we aren’t looking for the actually trades that make sense. Today, we are just looking at names who could be available this winter who we wouldn’t automatically assume is a fit with the Mariners.

All 10 of these names in this series have some obvious flaws behind them and none are likely to send the fanbase into a frenzy. But all bring value to the team for at least the first half of 2020 and all are short-term enough to not block any major prospects coming down the line.

Time will tell us what the Mariners will do this off-season. But if any of the names listed on these two lists come to town, I would be pretty excited.