Seattle Mariners: 3 Breakout Candidates for 2020 Season

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The Seattle Mariners have a lot of work to do to get where they want to be in the time frame in which they want to be there. But some of what needs to happen can happen without adding another player to the organization.

Now, don’t misunderstand me. The Mariners do not have the players necessary to get to where they want to be right now. And if they wait for all of those players to come up organically, it’ll be another 4-5 years before we can even talk about competing for division titles.

But there are things that can happen inhouse to make the acquisitions from outside the organization a little less crucial. The biggest thing that can happen is that players can develop or refine tools to heights not previously envisioned.

For example, if George Kirby develops a nasty cutter and suddenly becomes a legitimate ace candidate, that can change the timeline for the Mariners, albeit a bit incrementally. We already saw something similar to this with names like Jake Fraley and Shed Long, who entered the year as nice bench pieces to legitimate everyday starters potential.

With that in mind, the Mariners are going to be looking for players to take big steps in 2020. They need players to, for lack of a better term, “breakout” in 2020. While these breakouts may not result in All-Star bids or 5 WAR seasons, significant improvement is the real goal for 2020.

With that in mind, here are 3 players I believe will break out and show significant improvement over their 2019 self.

1. Yusei Kikuchi

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – AUGUST 25: Yusei Kikuchi #18 of the Seattle Mariners looks on after the Seattle Mariners defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 3-1 during their game at T-Mobile Park on August 25, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. Teams are wearing special color schemed uniforms with players choosing nicknames to display for Players’ Weekend. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Yes, Yusei Kikuchi was a disappointment this season but there were a lot of very serious off the field situations the 28-year-old was dealing with. A small handful of these factors include: moving to another country and all that goes with it, competing in a brand new league, mourning the death of his father, fathering his first child, learning a new language, working with a new baseball, a new coaching staff, and a new team.

On top of being the biggest off-season addition to the 25-man roster and being expected to be great right out of the gates. That is but a fraction of what Kikuchi went through this season, but there is no denying that the numbers were rough.

What gives me hope is two-fold. One, Kikuchi flashed signs of brilliance throughout the season. He was never able to sustain said brilliance for more than a start or two, but the fact that it happened throughout the season shows that he did adjust.

And those adjustments lead me to my second reason for optimism: Kikuchi wants to be great. Anybody who has worked with the lefty can’t go more than a few minutes without talking about his work ethic. He worked hard to form relationships with his teammates. He worked hard to be available all season. And he showed he was willing to take criticism and even tweak his delivery at the end of the season.

Being successful in the Major Leagues is difficult. Being willing to move away from what made you successful in Japan is also difficult. But Kikuchi’s willingness to try and strick with it shows me that there is a commitment to making this work.

With a full off-season to work on his new mechanics and his body now starting to adjust to the new baseball calendar, 2020 could be a nice year for Kikuchi.

2. J.P. Crawford

BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 21: J.P. Crawford #3 of the Seattle Mariners hits a three-run home run in the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 21, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

In what was likely the most “controversial” of all of last winters trades, J.P. Crawford entered his Mariners tenure with the label of a first-round bust hanging around his neck. And in his first year in Seattle, he was anything but.

Now, don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t all great for Crawford, but 2019 did prove something: that he is a viable, everyday shortstop. With that as the starting point from which to build, Crawford should be even better in 2020.

In his 93 games with the Mariners in 2019, Crawford hit just .226/.313/.371. But more importantly, he showed patience at the plate, posting a 10.9% walk rate, and an average or better glove at shortstop.

Interestingly enough, Crawford has just over one full season of games played in his career (165 games total) and his career slash line is pretty solid for a 24-year-old starting shortstop. In his 165 games, he has hit .222/.320/.367 with 10 home runs, 8 stolen bases, 31 doubles, 8 triples, and a 2.1 fWAR. That is a solid, everyday option at short.

And now, with an entire season at the big league level, those numbers should, in theory, go up. But there is a serious issue that needs to be addressed in regards to Crawford the offensive player. His swing just isn’t where it needs to be.

The swing is a bit long, leaving him susceptible to high velocities. This is likely done in an effort to create more power and while his frame certainly suggests there could be some serious raw power, Crawford and the Mariners will need to make a choice this off-season.

Either they need to ramp up Crawford’s lower half to match his swing and allow him to sell out for max power (which is likely around 20 home runs) or they need to shorten the swing and live with less over the fence power but more hard contact.

Personally, I prefer the latter. Crawford as a .260/.340/.420 guy with 30 doubles and 8-12 home runs is still a good value and is also where I expect to see his final slash line of 2020 look like.

3. Justus Sheffield

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 10: Justus Sheffield #33 of the Seattle Mariners reacts after getting into a jam in the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds during their game at T-Mobile Park on September 10, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

We saw quite a bit of Sheffield in August and September this year and the results were a bit mixed. On the one hand, we saw a devastating slider and 92-96 MPH fastball from the left side. On the other hand, we never quite saw the third pitch take off and his command was a bit spotty.

But I like Sheffield for a relatively big breakout in 2020. What makes me so confident? 2 stats in particular: K/9 and groundball percentage. In his limited 36 innings with the Mariners in 2019, Sheffield posted a 9.25 K/9 and a 52.3% ground ball rate.

Those numbers by themselves are good. But when you compare them to other starters, you start to see exactly what Sheffield may be becoming. If he had enough innings to qualify, Sheffield’s groundball rate would have ranked him 6th in all of baseball amongst starters.

In groundball rate, he finished just ahead of guys like Stephen Strasburg, Sonny Gray, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. But by itself, who really cares? Brad Keller produces a lot of groundballs and he’s not great. And while that is true, I would point out that Keller was still a productive pitcher in 2019, posting a 2.2 fWAR.

But what makes me the most excited about Sheffield in 2020 is the groundball percentage combined with the punchouts. Amongst qualified starters, the number of pitchers with higher groundball% and K/9 numbers is a short one. Just Max Fried and Luis Castillo beat him in both categories amongst qualified starters. That is the whole list.

In raw K/9, Sheffield would have tied for 23rd with Noah Syndergaard. Now I know that a lot of this based on ridiculously small sample size. I get it. My argument is full of holes. But in that short time, Sheffield missed bats and got a lot of groundballs and those are facts.

The slider is a legitimate putaway offering, causing a whiff rate of 47.5% in 2019. The fastball has above-average velocity for a lefty and we saw a glimpse of a useable changeup and quite possibly a developing cutter in Septemeber.

I’m not saying that Sheffield is a Cy Young Award level pitcher. He still has command issues he needs to sort out and a third pitch to develop. However, Sheffield is a young, athletic pitcher who got his first taste of big-league action as a 23-year-old. Call me crazy, but a Robbie Ray type of season isn’t out of the question in 2020.

Next. National Media has no clue on Mariners Rebuild. dark

If I was betting on a breakout in 2020, I’d put the most money of Justus Sheffield. Perhaps it is just wishful thinking, wanting to believe that 37 innings is enough for me to tell. But my eye tells me the stuff, arm, and athleticism is there. If it all clicks for Sheffield, you wouldn’t want to be in the box against him in 2020.

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The Seattle Mariners have a lot of work to do to get where they want to be in the time frame in which they want to be there. But some of what needs to happen can happen without adding another player to the organization.

1. Yusei Kikuchi

2. J.P. Crawford

3. Justus Sheffield

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