Sodo Mojo’s Seattle Mariners Twitter Mailbag

It has been a long time since we have done this, but today we open up the site to questions from Mariners fans sent to us on Twitter. Today, we cover a wide range of topics from future payroll to prospects and everything in between.

We have a lot of questions to get to, which is great. It means our audience is still interested in the Mariners despite coming to the end of a long season and there seems to be real excitement regarding the 2019-2020 off-season.

We would like this to become a recurring series on the website, so if you have questions, please send them to us on Twitter @sodomojoFS and we will try to answer every question you might have.

Without further ado, let’s just dive right in with question #1:

The simple truth of the matter is, we don’t know. Should they be open to dealing Mitch Haniger? Absolutely. The Mariners may not have an area of strength greater than in the outfield, and despite a poor 2019, Haniger still has the most value of the group.

We know they at least listened to a few ideas in the last off-season, but it sounds like only the Braves were seriously interested and a deal couldn’t be struck. If GM Jerry Dipoto had his pick, I believe he would love to sign Haniger to an extension, but there have been no indications Haniger is interested in such a deal.

Things change quickly and we don’t have all the information but for now, let’s assume he doesn’t want to sign an extension and is instead willing to go to arbitration each of the next 3 winters to hit free agency on time. At that point, seriously shopping him makes a lot of sense.

You have Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana, Jake Fraley, and Braden Bishop seemingly ready to go for 2020. You also have OF talent like Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, and possibly Evan White not far off. And you have the ability to go trade or sign an outfielder as well.

If they do trade him, two teams jump out as possibilities that probably weren’t last off-season: the Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays. Both could use some right-handed thump, have the farm systems and MLB talent to meet the price tag, and Haniger’s relatively low salary will be appealing.

At the end of the day, I think Haniger sticks around into 2020. Whether or not he finishes 2020 in Seattle is anybody’s guess.

Daniel Vogelbach a Lock for 2020?

It’s a question I can only imagine was dreamt up to hurt Colton Swanson but it is a fair one to ask. Let’s start with the first part of the question, the likelihood Vogelbach gets dealt this off-season. For me, the answer is slimmer than Vogey, but definitely not impossible. If we have learned anything from Dipoto, it is that nobody should feel safe.

The reason I say the chances are slim is for the reasons you mentioned at the end of the question. Very few teams are going to see Vogelbach as more than a DH. Only half the teams in the league can use a DH and only a handful of those teams seem willing to use one player in their DH spot.

Vogelbach’s recent struggles haven’t helped his value, nor has the growing platoon split issue. This doesn’t mean it is impossible though. Vogelbach is still an above-average bat with 5 years of club control after 2019. He is cheap, in his prime, and what he does well isn’t going away anytime soon.

Does he do enough things well to make it worth trading for him? For a lot of teams, the answer will be no. And since there is no reason to give guys like Vogelbach away for nothing, you’re probably better off keeping him.

Now since you talked about Evan White, let’s talk about him real fast. He is having a nice season in Arkansas, slashing .280/.332/.473 with 16 home runs and 12 doubles. But these are far from amazing and White has dealt with a hamstring injury and a hip flexor strain. Both of these injuries certainly set him back a little but there is still work that needs to be done.

White will likely begin 2020 in AAA Tacoma, where the offensive environment of the PCL will almost certainly enhance his numbers, but also make it more difficult to judge readiness. White is a gold glove first baseman who will hit for average, but is that enough to hand him first base for the next 6 years? No.

Don’t forget, White’s athletic enough to play a well-above-average corner outfield spot or even decent centerfield if needed, so it is possible to get both Vogelbach and White on the field at the same time while maintaining flexibility with the DH.

I don’t see a big enough market developing for Vogelbach to justify trading him and I still see too many red flags on White to think he will be any impact on the 2020 Mariners… but I have been spectacularly wrong before.

Bad Clubhouse Corrupting Prospects?

This is an interesting perspective and not one I entirely agree with. The bullpen has been quite good lately, both Dee Gordon and Kyle Seager are playing well. I guess I don’t see a lot of veterans who appear to be “mailing it in”.

However, Scott Servais has certainly been trying to send messages to a few young vets in recent days. He publicly called out Yusei Kikuchi after his start in Detroit. He benched Mallex Smith for repeated mental errors on the bases during the road trip.

Perhaps I’m not watching close enough, but I don’t see anything like a serious clubhouse problem. Remember last year when Jean Segura was throwing punches at Dee Gordon because his buddy Robinson Cano wasn’t playing second base? That was a problem.

And to their credit, the Mariners fixed the problem by trading both Cano and Segura away in the off-season. But to answer the question, no I don’t think it will be a problem. Any clubhouse issues can be dealt with pretty easily unless they are being caused by Seager or Gordon. The Mariners only have 4 players with guaranteed contracts for 2020, so flushing those guys out won’t be an issue.

Besides that, rookies are typically so focused on performing at the level so they can stay there, that doing anything to jeopardize their standing in the organization would be beyond stupid. I don’t know if there is a clubhouse drama right now. But even if there was, you cannot shield rookies away from the natural dynamic of a clubhouse.

You play long enough, and you’ll have to deal with the veteran who doesn’t give you know what anymore or the two teammates that hate each other. It is a part of the game. So is working around those issues, a skill you can only obtain by going through it. I wouldn’t let it change anything this year.

Payroll

So I am not a huge “payroll guy”, but I do my best to keep track of where things stand at any given moment. Currently, the Mariners have a payroll of roughly $145 million, which ranks just outside the Top 10. Thus far, under the John Stanton regime, the team has shown a willingness to go right up to or a little beyond the $170 million figure. No reason to believe that won’t be the case going forward.

But studying the payroll is interested. For example, the Mariners have only 4 players who have guaranteed money on their contracts for the 2020 season. These four players; Kyle Seager, Yusei Kikuchi, Dee Gordon, and Marco Gonzales will eat up roughly $55 million in payroll. The team owes roughly $30 million to other teams in buyouts and paying down traded salaries, giving them a starting figure of roughly $85 million. Just like that, half their max payroll is gone.

This winter, players like Mitch Haniger, Omar Narvaez, and Mallex Smith are all arbitration-eligible for the first time. So are Sam Tuivailala, Matt Wisler, Ryon Healy, and Keon Broxton. These 7 players are likely to make less than $20 million total and Healy and Broxton are prime non-tender candidates. Let’s say they all get offers and make $20 million total. We are up to $105 million.

Next, we come to the arbitration 2 or higher guys: Domingo Santana and Tim Beckham. The former will likely earn roughly $5-7 million and the latter will nearly certainly be non-tendered a contract. Let’s play it safe and call it $5 million for Santana and you are up to $110 million for 12 guys.

The rest of your players aren’t arbitration-eligible yet meaning they’ll make the minimum of just under $600,000. Tack on another $10 million for these players and you are already at $120 million. So assuming they have the green light to spend $170 million in 2020 (I don’t think they will) they would have roughly $50 million to play with.

And this is all assuming they don’t trade, extend or make any surprising non-tenders decisions. The numbers are stranger in 2021, but that is so far ahead, it makes no sense to consider it right now.

But to answer the crux of the original question: I would estimate the Mariners total payroll next year to be roughly $140 million. After that, it is anybody’s guess, but I think the absolute max out for this ownership group will be around $180 million.

Thank you guys so much for sending us your questions. If you have any questions you want to be answered in the future, please send them to us on Twitter @sodomojFS. And while you’re there, you may as well give us a follow! Thanks for reading and enjoy the last 5 weeks of the 2019 season!