Seattle Mariners: Power Ranking Top 20 Free Agent Options this Winter

We are in the final 6 weeks of the Mariners difficult to watch 2019 season. But as we all know, the building of a Major League Baseball Team never really stops, even when there are no more trades to make until November.

In what figures to be a busy off-season for the Mariners and GM Jerry Dipoto many will wonder what the point of spending money this off-season is, while others will demand Dipoto to sign multiple $25 million AAV deals to be satisfied.

But let’s be honest, with the aggressive timeline set forth by Seattle, their only shot is to add in both the trade market and free agency this winter. We can expect an aggressive Dipoto, but perhaps not as aggressive as many would like.

But as we look at the potential pool of over 100+ big leaguers who will become free agents, we ranked the Top 20 options for the Mariners… with a twist. Let’s make sure we are all on the same page before we get started.

First, you aren’t going to find Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg on this list. Could they make sense for Seattle? Sure. Does Seattle make sense for them? No. If you are a pitcher in your prime, why would you sign a deal that would waste at least one, but more than likely 2, of your prime seasons in a rebuild?

The answer would have to be money and while the Mariners have no shortage of that, spending $30+ million a year on one player who isn’t going to be the difference in a world series run for 2020 is a major risk. Basically, I didn’t include many “big names” because I think it is too early to get into bidding wars with World Series contenders for the handful of elite talents on the market today.

Second, we need to recognize how drastically things can change. It is only the middle of August and we don’t even know who will be a free agent. Extensions could be signed before November. Players will be non-tendered or DFA’d before free agency who will make sense for Seattle.

We are working with only part of the potential pool of free agents, to begin with. In addition, the play of current Mariners could drastically impact this list. If Kyle Seager takes his hot streak all the way to October, the need for a lefty power bat goes down. If Domingo Santana ends up getting Tommy John Surgery in September, the need for a right-handed power bat goes up.

Finally, every move made this off-season creates a domino effect for the rest of these ranks. If the Mariners trade for a Matt Boyd type, the mid-rotation arms go down the list. If they trade away Marco Gonzales, the need may go up.

Just remember that a player who makes sense in August may not make sense in October, let alone December. With all that in mind, let’s get started with our number 20-16 free agent targets.

20. Arodys Vizcaino

He’s actually in the Mariners organization right now as he was acquired to help “even out” the salaries of the Anthony Swarzak trade. But when he was acquired, the team knew he wouldn’t pitch in 2019 but Dipoto did say that we would probably look to target somebody “like Vizcaino” in free agency.

A likely target anyways, Vizcaino makes some sense as the Mariners may not be looking to compete in 2020 but do need to improve. The easiest place to improve is in the bullpen. Vizcaino could be similar to the Hunter Strickland signing from the last off-season; a veteran reliever who could be a stop-gap closer before ultimately being dealt in July.

He will be cheap, has a solid chance to be valuable in July, and can stabilize a pen early in the year, as can the next few names on this list.

 19. Sergio Romo 18. Tony Cingrani 17. Steve Cishek

See Vizcaino. Veteran relievers, some closing experience, probable trade chips in July.

16. Jonathan Schoop

Nobody would be doing cartwheels over Johnathan Schoop. At least, I hope not. He doesn’t walk, helps on the basepaths, and is only a passable defender at second base. But he is going to be a cheap source of right-handed power, may be able to actually handle 3rd base, is in his physical prime, and has a 121 wRC+ against LHP.

While second base may seem crowded with Dee Gordon and Shed Long presumably on the roster entering the off-season, it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility that that one or both are traded. Even if Long isn’t, he is far from a sure thing and the Mariners really seem to want to use him in as much of a Marwin Gonzales type of role as possible.

Signing Schoop gives you another option in the infield and one with a higher upside than Ryon Healy if the team decides to platoon Schoop against LHP.

15. David Freese

Similar to Schoop. More of a first base platoon partner with Vogelbach if that’s a route they want to go. Would the veteran be interested? Maybe.

14. Justin Smoak

Can we just be rational for a minute? Let’s clear up the concerns I know you are quickly trying to come up with to make this a bad idea. First, Daniel Vogelbach is not an everyday first baseman. You can upgrade at first base and DH by moving Vogey to his real future home and add a solid bat and glove to your lineup.

Second, yes, Justin Smoak is now a solid bat. Has been for a while. Yes, he has struggled this season but still has an elite walk rate, an above-average K rate, 18 home runs, and a .348 OBP in a down year.

Third, he isn’t blocking Evan White. First and foremost, we don’t even know if Evan White will survive the winter(Daniel Vogelbach too for that matter). If he does, the odds of him breaking camp with the Mariners is slim to none. White has been good in AA but isn’t blowing the doors off the league and there are still very real issues he needs to address at the plate.

If White, who will likely start 2019 in AAA Tacoma, can fix these issues, 33-year-old Justin Smoak isn’t going to block him, especially since the going rate for his services will likely be a 1-year deal.

Smoak has the same barrel percentage as Vogelbach this season, ranks in the Top 100 in average exit velocity, and his xBA (expected batting average) and his xSLG both point to a lot of bad luck in 2019.

Complaints can be filed on Twitter @sodomojoFS or you can save us both some time and just drop them in the trash can. Thanks.

13. Jhoulys Chacin

He is going to be 32-years-old, with a durable arm that has provided #4 results in 3 of the last 4 seasons. He will be cheap, eat innings, and provide stability until the likes of Justin Dunn and Logan Gilbert are ready to assume their spots in the rotation. Just a solid arm to have.

12. Derek Dietrich

There is some confusion as to whether or not Dietrich is a free agent after this season. MLB Trade Rumors has him listed as one, but Dietrich has not gotten his 6-years of service time yet, so should be arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter. For now, let’s call him a free agent.

Either way, somebody is going to give him a chance to show whether or not he is for real. In May, Dietrich was the best hitter on the planet. For the rest of the season, he has been mostly mediocre. But his age (30), versatility, and newfound power are still real positives for him, so somebody will bite. Why not the Mariners?

He has significant experience at first, second, third, and left field. He isn’t great at any one spot, but the bat could play at any of those spots. He has been an above-average bat for all 6 of his MLB seasons (based on wRC+). Could be worth a look.

11. Alex Wood

I’m fascinated by Alex Wood. When he pitches, he’s good. And in 2017 and 2018, he logged a total of 300+ innings with an 8.5 K/9, a 2.30 BB/9, and an over 50% groundball rate. That was all good for 5.4 fWAR and a FIP in the 3.40 range.

Of course, the keyword is “when”. He has missed most of 2019, as he did in 2016. The lefty turns 29 in January and has the upside of a #2 starter. There is a little James Paxton here, but with the lack of options available, signing an arm like Alex Wood could be the best bang for the buck signing in the off-season.

Even as I write this, I want to move Wood into the Top 5 targets. Perhaps next time.

5. Michael Pineda

When he’s healthy, he is good. He isn’t exactly healthy on a regular basis. He should be cheaper than Odorizzi and could be just as good. Believe it or not, Pineda turns 31-years-old in January but he doesn’t have the typical workload associated with that age.

The stuff is still good and if you can get him on a 3-year, $30-40 million contracts, you could make that investment back threefold. He is a lottery ticket, but maybe the highest payoff if you are right.

4. Mike Moustakas

Moustakas is my favorite bat in this class. He has been underrated in his last 2 trips to free agency and is doing everything in his power to make sure it doesn’t happen again. He does have a mutual option, so it’s no guarantee he becomes a free agent, but it does seem unlikely he will activate that option.

He is a solid third baseman, has 35-40 home run power, doesn’t strikeout, and is just 31-years-old. Did I mention he has 360 innings at second base this season and has actually held his own? He can play third, first, and now second, and handle all three spots well.

He is a solid #6 bat in the lineup type has been worth more than 2 fWAR in 4 of his last 5 seasons and has playoff experience. I really like the idea of Moustakas, but admittedly, finding the perfect fit isn’t easy right now.

3. Collin McHugh

Now that Keon Broxton has donned the Mariners uniform, my next fantasy acquisition is Collin McHugh. I love watching him pitch and like a lot of other guys on this list, is coming off a down season.

A solid starter for the early Astros run, McHugh posted 9.3 fWAR as a starter from 2014-2016. But as the Astros continued to acquire more starting pitching talent, McHugh transitioned to the bullpen and found success there as well, at least until 2019.

Even in this, his down season, McHugh still has elite spin rates on his fastball and curveball and is missing plenty of bats in the process. At 32-years-old, he isn’t a perfect fit in the timeline, but a team like the Mariners could benefit from converting him back into the rotation, where he could gain significant value on the trade market.

2. Kyle Gibson

Gibson is one of the better pitchers in the AL nobody talks about. The 32-year-old is remarkably consistent, and this season, his strikeout rate has jumped to nearly 1 hitter an inning, when in 2017, that number was at 6.89 K/9.

He gets a lot of groundballs, is a safe bet to have a sub-4 xFIP, and is likely the safest arm on the free-agent market, outside of the Cole and Strasburg types. He isn’t spectacular but provides stability and allows for more options in the market Dipoto really wants to play in: the trade market.

1. Zack Wheeler

Last off-season, the Seattle Mariners sent a message about the seriousness of their intent to compete for a wild card spot by 2021 by signing Yusei Kikuchi. It showed that the Mariners were not interested in the typical 5-7 year rebuild and they can send a similar signal this off-season.

Zack Wheeler isn’t on the same level as Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, but he may be the best option on the whole market for Seattle. He’s not so good that teams will bid for him as they will with Cole.

He is the best blend of age, probability, upside, and realism for Mariners fans this season who could actually bring the team significantly closer to their goal. This is the real prize for Seattle. While Kyle Gibson would be fine, and Porcello and Wacha are fine gambles, Wheeler is the statement move without spending ridiculous money.

Signing Wheeler would cost the Mariners their third-round pick, but a healthy Zack Wheeler is well worth it. Yes, there are some injury issues in his past. But he is well on his way to back to back 4 fWAR seasons and would immediately become the best arm in the system.

Wheeler is the perfect player to make your statement without sacrificing ridiculous amounts of cash or assets to make 2021 a realistic option. Will Jerry see it the same way? Only time will tell.