Seattle Mariners: The Upside Kyle Seager Trade Comp

A large portion of Seattle Mariners fans are demanding that Kyle Seager is off the roster by Opening Day. However, like a lot of mob mentalities, the actual answer is the opposite.

In fact, trading Kyle Seager this winter is probably the worst thing the Mariners and GM Jerry Dipoto can do. It would be a pure salary dump if you can even find anybody to take his salary, and Dipoto has gone out of his way to not make those types of trades.

On the contrary, Dipoto has actually taken on significant contract this winter, including Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Carlos Santana. and Edwin Encarnacion. So no, the Mariners have not made bad deals to simply get money off their books.

But with Kyle Seager’s value at an all-time low, the Mariners would need to eat a large chunk of that contract and still wouldn’t get anybody of real significance back. Instead, they should spend at least the first part, if not all of, 2019 to see if he can re-establish some value.

It isn’t ridiculous to assume that Seager can bounce back in a major way in 2019, especially since it may not be statistically possible to be worse than in 2018. But let’s say that the Seager jumps back to his modest 2017 numbers when he slashed .249/.323/.450 with 27 home runs and a 3.6 fWAR. What would he be worth?

Fortunately, we don’t have to go back but 1 off-season to get the trade comp that works best. Last winter, the Tampa Bay Rays traded franchise icon Evan Longoria to the San Francisco Giants. In his final season in Tampa, Longoria slashed .261/.313/.424 with 20 home runs and a 2.4 fWAR.

Depending on when the Mariners actually trade Kyle Seager, he will have a shorter commitment, which may actually help his value versus Longoria. Let’s assume the Mariners wait until after the 2019 season to move Seager. In that scenario, Seager would have 2-years remaining at $38 million, with a player option for $15 million for the 2022 season. A max of 3-years, $53 million.

When Longoria was dealt, he had 5 guaranteed years at $80 million, with a $13 million team option as well. Longoria was dealt before his age-32 season. Seager would be traded in his age-31 seasons.

So, at the very least, if Seager rebounds he will get in the neighborhood of the Evan Longoria trade package. This begs the question; is the Longoria trade package worth gambling on a Seager rebound? Let’s take a look.

The biggest name coming back to the Rays in this deal was Christian Arroyo. A fringe Top 100 prospect in most ranks, Arroyo is seen as a solid regular with an above-average hit tool, with below-average power but average tools the rest of the way. A good, but not elite prospect.

Matt Krook is a simple lottery ticket with high-upside. A first-round talent at Oregon Krook struggled with injuries and command in college and fell to the 4th round as a result. Krook misses bats and gets groundballs, but is a fringe starter.

Stephen Woods is the throw-in for this deal. Denard Span, a player Mariners fans should be familiar with, was sent to Tampa Bay as a way to balance out the salary of Longoria. The Rays also sent money in the deal to help the Giants afford some of Longoria’s massive contract.

So overall, the Rays got a borderline Top 100 prospect, a solid veteran player, and 2 lottery ticket arms for Longoria. Is that worth betting on a Kyle Seager bounceback? The answer is, for me, unequivocally yes.

Kyle Seager has virtually no trade value right now. So why trade him when you absolutely don’t have to? Just doing it to save a little cash isn’t acceptable. At least, not right now.