Seattle Mariners: Who gets flipped and who stays for now?

As the Mariners continue to restructure their entire organization and shed future payroll, they have taken on the short-term commitment of several veteran contracts to complete a multitude of trades this past month.

Seattle has already offloaded one of these contracts in Carlos Santana, dealing his two-year, roughly $40 million commitment in exchange for the one-year, $25 million commitment of Edwin Encarnación. Jerry Dipoto’s strategy this offseason, and going into the regular season, is simple enough: continue working down the ladder, shed more payroll and collect more value along the way.

Value is always relative, however. The amount of money you successfully shed certainly plays into the value of a deal. The kind of contract you get back and the talent of the player the contract is attached to also plays a major role, which is why the Mariners hit an absolute home run with the Encarnación acquisition.

With Encarnación, specifically, the Mariners lose very little trade value (or perhaps even gain some) by swapping Santana for him. They also obtain a top 80 draft pick, which should turn into a top 15 prospect in the M’s system.

Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of this rebuild has been Dipoto’s ability to acquire valuable players with bad contracts. He hasn’t taken on players who have seemingly hit a dead end, such as Martín Prado and Jacoby Ellsbury. Every veteran that Dipoto has taken on to offset some of the money he’s offloaded still have high enough upside to bring back a worthy return.

So that’s what we’re going to look at today. It’s obvious that any veteran Dipoto has acquired thus far will likely be moved either this Winter or by July’s trade deadline, including Encarnación. It’s just a matter of when, not if, and who makes the most sense in terms of a trade partner.

1B/DH EDWIN ENCARNACIÓN

As we touched upon, the trade that brought in Encarnación this past may be some of Dipoto’s best work in his tenure with the Mariners. Flipping Santana for Encarnación may have been a value gain than a loss, as Encarnación maintained a solid on-base presence while providing more power than Santana last season.

Of course, unlike Santana, Encarnación is practically useless in the field and should be looked at more as a designated hitter. That will always hurt E5’s trade value, and may even cut out the National League entirely if no team is comfortable in playing him at first base for a full season.

Still, the Mariners should be able to get a decent lottery ticket prospect or two depending on how much of Encarnación’s $25 million salary they’re willing to eat. It shouldn’t matter if they decide to hold on to him until July or part ways over the next few weeks, as Encarnación has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball and has hit very well in Seattle throughout his career. His value will likely remain the same no matter what.

Potential destinations this Winter: Rockies, Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Prediction: Traded to the Rockies this offseason.

RHP ANTHONY SWARZAK

Anthony Swarzak is one of the more overlooked acquisitions of Jerry Dipoto’s incredibly busy offseason, but may become of note as July approaches.

Coming off an injury-plagued season in which he posted a 5.48 FIP in 26.1 innings of relief, Swarzak is just one year removed from a campaign that landed him a two-year, $14 million contract and should be viewed as a real bounce-back candidate in 2019. With a career-high 4.78 BB/9 (his high before that was 3.05 in 2009), it’s clear that Swarzak wasn’t right all season long and the outcome should not be reflective of the effect he could have on a bullpen moving forward.

Of course, the Mariners are not relying on Swarzak being good and rebuilding his trade value this year. If he busts once again, it’s not a huge deal, and even if he succeeds, he may not bring much back.

What I find most interesting is Seattle’s current bullpen situation, and how Swarzak may very well be their closer going into 2019. If that were to happen, and Swarzak is able to bounce back while fulfilling that role, that may boost his value above expectations. But that’s the best case scenario, and Swarzak may never be given such an opportunity depending on which other pieces the M’s bring into their deconstructed bullpen.

It’s something fun to think about a relatively boring player and situation, at least.

Possible destinations this Winter: Brewers, Indians, Athletics, Padres, Cardinals
Prediction: Traded in July or August.