Seattle Mariners: 5 Free Agents That Fit the Rebuild

Rebuilds are always fun and exciting, even if it means your team is likely heading to the cellar for the foreseeable future.

The Mariners are openly entering a rebuilding year in 2019, though they see a new window for contention opening relatively soon. The moves they make this offseason and next will determine whether or not they can reach this seemingly unrealistic goal.

Once Seattle’s season ended in late September, I’ve been of the belief that they could – and should – be active in this year’s free agent market. Jerry Dipoto has been reluctant to dip his toes too much in the free agent pool over the years, and seems to be sticking to his guns on a trade-first strategy, but there is plenty of value to be had as the Mariners look to fill out their roster.

Even in a self-proclaimed rebuilding year, Seattle will look to field a competitive team each and every night. Not only will they load their roster with young, controllable talent to see what they have for their future; they’ll also look to find value on one-year deals and aim to flip them at July’s trade deadline. In a year in which teams are competing for the services of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, the Mariners will seek to find themselves the next Rich Hill or Steve Pearce.

By that, I mean finding someone who’s serviceable in the constructs of a rebuild that have the potential to exceed expectations and become a valuable asset come July. That’s the type of player we’ll mostly profile throughout this list, though we’ll also look at help for 2019 and beyond. Any of these help the Mariners in attempting to fit through the small window they’ve given themselves for 2020 and 2021. How they get there is a complete mystery at this time, but the first steps in making it there have already begun.

RHP MARCO ESTRADA

The starting pitching market is a minefield. You could either hit big and find great value, or have it completely blow up in your face. The Mariners have experienced their fair share of the latter recently, seeing names such as J.A. Happ and Yovani Gallardo (both trades, but similar players to those we’re showcasing) completely fizzle out and the M’s saw little-to-no return whatsoever.

Marco Estrada is exactly that type, as he provides very little middle ground. It’s either one extreme or the other with him. For most of his time with the Blue Jays, Estrada was a serviceable third or fourth option in their rotation, but hit a brick wall in 2018 with a 5.44 FIP in 28 starts. Given his past success, however, Estrada is a solid bounce-back candidate who could fare well and build some value on the trade market to playoff teams looking for a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.

Estrada would have a good chance of doing that in Seattle, as the 35-year-old righty has posted a 3.44 FIP in 18 innings at the field formerly known as Safeco. He’s also very reliant upon the flyball, finishing first among starters with at least 140 innings logged with a 55.6% flyball rate, which should play better in a more pitcher-friendly park. Still, such high numbers should call for a bit of hesitance, even for a rebuilding team. But there’s potential there, and Estrada may be worth a look.

RHP GARRETT RICHARDS

I was a fan of the Mariners acquiring Garrett Richards back when I assumed they were aiming to contend in 2019, and I’m even more of a fan of the idea now that they’re all-in on a rebuild. After undergoing a second Tommy John surgery this past July and becoming yet another Angels starter run into the ground, Richards finds himself in a free agency period in which he was initially set to receive a significant payday. One UCL tear later and Richards will likely have to sell high on himself to find a new home this offseason.

In all likelihood, Richards will not pitch at the Major League level in 2019. For the Mariners, that’s absolutely fine. Paying Richards a couple million to guarantee he’s with you in 2020 is absolutely worth seeing what you have in him at a discounted rate. Richards has the makeup to be the next Nathan Eovaldi, fighting back from one devastating injury after the other to finally reach the ceiling so many fans and scouts alike put on him.

Seattle has absolutely nothing to lose here, and they make a lot of sense for Richards. Jerry Dipoto is very familiar with Richards’ potential from his days as the Angels general manager, and he fits the theme of low-cost, high-reward the Mariners can afford to acquire in this time of transition. The stars seemed to be aligned on this one, and I almost feel inclined to say this is a matter of “when,” not “if” at this point.

C A.J. ELLIS

This one is not from a value standpoint, but rather need and opportunity to help a young pitching staff grow. Among the many solid options in this year’s free agent catching market, A.J. Ellis is certainly not at the top, but the 37-year-old backstop is coming off a sneaky-good offensive season in which he also continued to be a dominant defensive force. With David Freitas as the lone catcher on Seattle’s 40-man roster, they need to address their catching position and Ellis makes a lot more sense than you may think.

After trading James Paxton last week, the Mariners are looking to get younger in their rotation with Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield, and Erik Swanson at the forefront of those plans. They no longer have Mike Zunino, who famously built a strong repertoire with a constantly fluctuating M’s rotation and made the most of what he had. In a rebuilding year, the Mariners don’t need an offensive upgrade at catcher; what they need is a veteran who can lead and mentor the budding starters making their way to the rotation this season.

Over the years, Ellis has worked with some of the best pitchers in baseball, including Clayton Kershaw, who apparently cried when Ellis was traded to the Phillies in August 2016. Though often overlooked, Ellis is far from a scrub. In his seven full MLB seasons, Ellis has never posted a neagtive defensive rating per FanGraphs, and has performed a Gold Glove level at times. He’s also had a bit of success at the plate as of late, slashing .272/.378/.344 in 183 plate appearances in 2018.

LHP YUSEI KIKUCHI

We’ve talked about Yusei Kikuchi quite a bit on this site lately and for good reason. Kikuchi, 27, is the perfect free agent target for the Mariners this offseason. Coming off some shoulder issues last season in the NPB, Kikuchi may not be able to make an immediate impact with the M’s. Alas, given his age and the long-term contract he’s expected to sign once he’s posted next week, Kikuchi will have plenty of time to adjust to the MLB and recover health-wise, and the Mariners can afford to let that happen.

Kikuchi’s ceiling appears to be as a #3 starter in most rotations, though his high strikeout capabilities could catapult him into #2 territory. Still, he fits more in the tier of the Kenta Maeda and Hisashi Iwakuma types rather than Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka. That’s still a very nice asset to add towards the beginning of a rebuild, as Kikuchi could wind up hitting his Major League prime by the time the Mariners are ready to compete once again.

The Mariners aren’t the only team that makes sense for Kikuchi, and they’ll likely have a great deal of competition from both rebuilding teams and contenders. As always, Seattle is an attractive destination for Japanese players, though that narrative has slowly started to fade with names such as Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani choosing to play elsewhere. This is definitely a “wait-and-see” situation, but man, does it make a lot of sense for the Mariners.