Seattle Mariners: James Paxton Trade Profile, San Diego Edition

Surprisingly, James Paxton is still a Seattle Mariners pitcher. That may be about to end. We have profiled numerous places Paxton may end up, and today we look at a potential dark horse, the San Diego Padres.

The Padres have one of the longest playoff droughts in the game, nearly sharing the dubious honor with the Mariners. They have seemingly been “rebuilding” for a decade, and have never really gotten all that close to breaking the cycle. However, things may be beginning to chance.

The Padres now posses a young MLB team and a near consensus Top 3 farm system. Last off-season, the Padres showed just how close they thought they were when they signed Eric Hosmer to a massive contract. While he disappointed greatly in 2018, the move was nonetheless a signal to baseball that the team may be ready to contend.

Now, the team has reportedly sharpened its focus this off-season to add more impact to its rotation, while also looking for help at SS and 3B. The Mariners appear unwilling to discuss Jean Segura, and Kyle Seager isn’t going anywhere. But a pitcher like James Paxton could be just what the doctor ordered.

As with all the deals we have proposed(including this one for the Reds), we begin by looking for the major league player most believe Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is asking for in every offer. The Padres have several candidates to fill that role.

First and foremost may be Wil Myers. Myers, who will enter his age-28 season in 2018, is a nice player who can hit, posting a 112 wRC+ in his 4 seasons in San Diego. In that time, Myers has shown impressive 30 home run upside, and the ability to steal 20 or more bases as well.

Naturally, the question is: why would the Padres look to move this player. First, he has a history of missing games. He played just 83 games in 2018, and only 60 in 2015 (though he played in 155+ games in both 2016 and 2017). Second, he doesn’t play much defense anywhere.

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But the biggest reason may be his contract. Myers signed a 6-year extension in 2016. The first 3 years were extremely team friendly and Myers will have made a grand total of $7 million from 2017-2019. But after next season, his salary jumps to $20 million a year from 2020-2022, with a $20 million option for 2023.

So I don’t see the Mariners, who are about to climb out from under Felix Hernandez contract, take that step. Another name to watch is Travis Jankowski. Jankowski is a straight speed-demon who plays an excellent CF. He is blocked from being much more than a 4th OF by his lack of power but is only 27 with 4-years of club control remaining.

Hunter Renfroe makes a bit of sense. But he is a 1-dimensional player (power) and not exactly on the young side of the spectrum to ever develop another tool. While all these names could be discussed, perhaps the best fit is Austin Hedges.

Hedges, a 26-year-old catcher who is super two eligible, has 4-years of club control remaining and is scheduled to make $2 million in 2019. The trade of Mike Zunino earlier this month has left a hole at catcher, and Hedges is a good fit as a replacement. A defense-first catcher, Hedges has some of the power of Zunino, while not giving up an inch in pitch framing grading.

With Hedges as the Major League piece of the deal, it is time to go shopping for the headliner. And here is what we have come up with:

As much as we would like to have Fernando Tatis Jr., Mackenzie Gore, Francisco Mejia, and Luis Urias, the overwhelming odds say they are not available. However, the Padres have a deep farm system, so finding another piece that fits the “headliner” bill won’t be difficult.

Perhaps the most Dipoto friendly arm in all of baseball belongs to Padres RHP prospect Chris Paddack. The 6’4″, 195lbs pitcher dominated Advanced-A and AA ball in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA in 90 innings. Paddack has an above-average fastball that sits 93 MPH and can hit 95 at times. He also throws a good curveball with nice depth and bites.

The thing that separates Paddack from other young hurlers is his ultra-advanced changeup. It is a devastating swing-and-miss pitch. But what makes Paddack the ideal Dipoto target? Control the Zone. In his 90 innings in 2018, Paddack did exactly that. Not only were his 120 strikeouts in that span elite, so were the walks he surrendered.

He walked 8 batters in 2018. 8. EIGHT. Paddack has 2 above-average pitches, a double plus changeup, and misses bats while walking nobody. Did I mention 8 walks? 120:8 K/BB ratio? Jerry Dipoto may have just fainted.

With Hedges and Paddack in tow, we now turn our sights to Anderson Espinoza. The one time jewel of the Padres system, Espinoza has seen his career stall thanks to Tommy John Surgery, which cost him all of 2017 & 2018. He has yet to make it back on the mound.

When he is right, Espinoza has an Edwin Diaz like heater that hits 97 MPH and has late arm-side run. He backs it up with a sharp curveball and a plus changeup. There are concerns about his durability as Espinoza stands at just 6’0″, 160 lbs.

Espinoza is an arm to dream on, however, and he has number 1 upside if he can finally get healthy. He is likely 2 full years away from the big leagues but is the ultimate lottery ticket for the Mariners to consider.

Overall, in this proposal, the Padres get the #1 starter they desperately need without giving up significant money and holding onto their best prospects. The Mariners get a catcher to help them in 2019 and beyond, a probable number 3 starter who misses bats and walks nobody, and a potential ace if he can get right.

The beauty of trying to find a trade with the Padres is that there is a wide variety of packages to choose from. Their system is deep, and teams can get creative in finding the deal that works best for them. There aren’t many players the Mariners “must have” from the Padres, which actually bodes well for them.

The Padres and Mariners matchup quite well in trade, and on more players than just James Paxton. Hopefully, a deal or two can get done this off-season. And maybe, just maybe, they can be the team to plant “The Big Maple”.