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Seattle Mariners: Sodo Mojo’s 2019 Off-Season Plan

By Colby Patnode

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 8: Starter Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during the first inning a game against the New York Yankees at Safeco Field on September 8, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 8: Starter Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during the first inning a game against the New York Yankees at Safeco Field on September 8, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /
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FREE AGENT SIGNING: LHP ANDREW MILLER

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Andrew Miller #24 of the Cleveland Indians delivers a pitch in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros during Game Two of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 6, 2018, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Andrew Miller #24 of the Cleveland Indians delivers a pitch in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros during Game Two of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 6, 2018, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Contract details: Three years, $30 million

When constructing the Colomé deal, we knew there were plenty of options on the free agent market to fill the hole he would leave open, thus leading us to Miller. Let’s be real  — Andrew Miller is better than Álex Colomé, and Seattle has desperately needed an impact left-handed arm out of their bullpen for a while. James Pazos has been a nice piece in the M’s bullpen for the most part, but can’t compare to the dominance Miller has had over the past seven seasons.

Miller did struggle with some injury concerns in his throwing shoulder in 2018, ultimately leading to a relatively subpar season by his standards. However, his numbers still read off at an above-average rate, including an 11.91 K/9 and a 3.51 FIP in 34 innings. The injury didn’t hinder his velocity much but did appear to alter the bite on some of his other options. An offseason worth of rehab should bring him back to full speed, though, and we expect Miller could find his way back to an All-Star level of production right behind Edwin Díaz.

What makes Miller so fascinating is his cost. Even with the down year, an argument can be made for being the best reliever in his free agent class. However, the general consensus in free agency predictions seems to be that Miller will likely get a $9 million AAV, a pretty low number for someone of Miller’s capabilities, though that could be dictated one way or another depending on how the market truly shakes out. We’ve added an extra $3 million guaranteed to his widely predicted contract, giving him a $10 million AAV over three years in the Pacific Northwest.

Miller will be entering his age 34 season this year, putting him at 36 by the end of this contract. It’s a risky move, investing this kind of money in a reliever that age, but it all comes down to belief. Specifically, a belief in his ability to remain a dominant factor for a contender moving forward. We clearly believe in Miller doing just that.

(Written by Ty Gonzalez)

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