Seattle Mariners: James Paxton Trade Profile, Be Creative With Lefty

The Value

Ahead of the season, our own Colby Patnode put together a nice list of 5 trade packages for James Paxton had the Mariners been poised to sell. The value of a lot of those names have shifted dramatically, but it is worth a read to get an initial sense of what Paxton could bring in.

Obviously, at this point, Paxton comes with just the two years of control and while he threw some incredible ball games in 2018, home runs hurt him and he ultimately finished with a good but not great 3.76 ERA over a career-high 160.1 IP.

Still, he is the kind of starter that could fit on any competitive team. A limited track record due to various injuries may knock his value a little, but he has top shelf stuff and despite some inconsistency in his bottom line, teams won’t shy away from his potential.

A couple of recent trades should define Paxton’s value on the trade market.

Prior to 2017, the Mariners dealt OF Mallex Smith, SP Ryan Yarbrough, and SS Carlos Vargas to the Rays for two years of SP Drew Smyly.

Smyly struggled in the ERA department in 2016 due to a high home run total but he threw a career-high in innings while displaying good control and solid strikeout stuff (sound familiar?). The Mariners were betting on things breaking better for him and knew they had just two years to see if they could.

Mallex Smith — 77-minutes after being acquired by the Mariners — headlined the Rays’ return as a speedy outfielder with strong minor-league batting lines. His plate approach was rather ideal and allowed him to consistently use his wheels and project as a speed-first fourth outfielder at worst. He slotted in as the Braves’ 17th best prospect at the end of 2015 according to MLB Pipeline as there were some questions about how well he would hold up against more advanced pitching, but before an injury cut his 2016 MLB debut short, his bat did start to come around.

Ryan Yarbrough lacked the same pedigree yet put up great AA stats in 2016 with pristine command of mostly average stuff. Don’t let his initial MLB success cloud your opinion though. He was a 25-year-old finesse lefty in AA with an increasingly likely, but not guaranteed, chance to stick in the rotation.

Carlos Vargas hit well in Rookie ball as a shortstop who probably wouldn’t stick at short, but like basically any Rookie ball trade piece, he was essentially a throw-in with upside.

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More recently, the Astros dealt SP Joe Musgrove, 3B Colin Moran, RP Michael Feliz and OF Jason Martin to the Pirates for two years of SP Gerrit Cole.

Like Smyly, Cole didn’t turn in his best season results-wise immediately before his trade, but he still came with enough value to demand a top prospect from interested teams.

This deal was notable not only for Cole’s name value swapping hands but also for the fact that the Astros didn’t end up surrendering any of their top prospects to get him.

Instead, the Pirates opted for a more MLB-ready talent.

Joe Musgrove, for instance, had more than 170 IP to his name prior to being dealt. Although the results were not too impressive overall, he was solid in several regards. A full-time move to the bullpen seemed probable, but he still carried starting potential, especially with a change of scenery.

Colin Moran also made his debut well before being dealt (for the second time), but he came with much less MLB experience than Musgrove. His stock dipped with a rough AAA season in 2016; however, on the heels his best minor league performance yet, he was trending back upward in 2017 and once again looked like a potential average regular.

Michael Feliz had been in the majors more-or-less full-time since 2016 as a relief-only arm, yet his results consistently failed to match his abundant raw ability and he fell on the Astros depth chart enough to become a trade piece.

Jason Martin was the only real prospect here and despite his best efforts, he lagged behind a swath of position player talent in Houston’s system. He had hit at every level through his first foray into AA, but without much upside over that of a fourth outfielder, he was not highly regarded enough to be taken in 2017’s Rule 5 draft and was passed on to Pittsburgh.

These were both fair swaps for good-to-great pitchers with two years of control remaining in my opinion.

In their eyes, the Rays dealt for an everyday outfielder, a backend starter, and a lottery ticket infielder.

The Pirates didn’t receive a player with quite as much upside as Mallex Smith, but their return was surely thought to include an MLB-ready starter, a regular third baseman, a high-powered wild card reliever, and a fourth outfielder whose projection is based more on numbers than tools.

James Paxton is similar to Drew Smyly in terms of health and consistency of results, but he is also closer to Gerrit Cole in terms of talent and production. Considering these comparisons and the Mariners’ current position going into 2019, it would seem that a return for Paxton should be greater than that which netted Smyly in terms of value but be more geared toward MLB-ready talent like the package that landed Cole.