Seattle Mariners Arbitration Candidates: Deal or No Deal

It’s that time of year again. Arbitration estimates have been released, and they are usually pretty accurate. Let’s take a look at the Seattle Mariners and their arbitration candidates, and play a game of Deal or No Deal. Who is worth keeping around, and who should we decline.

The Seattle Mariners arbitration candidates total nine heading into the 2018-19 off-season. This is up a little bit from last year when they had seven players eligible for arbitration. The dollar amount is a bit more as well. This year they have a projected $33.5 million if they were to re-sign every eligible player. Last year was only $24.6 million. The main reason for this increase comes from two players, as James Paxton and Alex Colome make up nearly half the amount.

When it comes to the Seattle Mariners arbitration candidates, some of them are no-brainers. Whether it is “DEAL or NO DEAL”, it’s an easy answer. Some of them are much tougher. We need to look and see if the risk is worth the reward with the player. For others, it depends on their durability, and whether or not they can play enough games to take up a valuable roster spot.

Let’s dive in and take a look at the nine Seattle Mariners arbitration candidates. DEAL means the Mariners should take the player at that salary. NO DEAL means they shouldn’t. Keep in mind, these are projected numbers, although they are normally fairly accurate. It’s time to play DEAL or NO DEAL; Seattle Mariners style.

James Paxton: $9.0 Million – DEAL

This one is incredibly easy. Paxton had arguably his best season to date with the Mariners. Yes, his E.R.A was higher than in 2017. He did show more durability this year, pitching a career-high 160.1 innings, besting his previous best by 24.1. This is a huge improvement for someone who needs to show that innings eating ability to be considered an ace.

Getting his innings up was the main question surrounding Paxton. If the Mariners can get a mix of the stuff that he brought in 2017, and the innings in 2018, they have a bonafide ace. He has shown a little bit of all the things that it takes to be an ace. Now he just needs to put it all together.

Paxton at nine million is still a great deal, as he would get at least twice that on the open market. Heading into his age 30 season, the fact that the Seattle Mariners have their ace at well below market value is a nice bit of savings. As the most important Mariners arbitration candidate, Seattle will definitely say DEAL to James Paxton.

Alex Colome: $7.3 Million – DEAL

This one isn’t that easy. Deciding to pay over $7 million for someone who isn’t your closer is always a tough pill to swallow. Relievers seem to vary the most from any position year to year. However, with Colome, he seems to be worth the money.

The Mariners should take Colome at $7.3 million, as he gives them a fantastic one-two punch in the bullpen with Edwin Diaz. Having two guys that you know you can count on is a big help, especially to a team that finds themselves in a lot of close games.

Another way to look at the amount that the Mariners will be paying Colome is to imagine what he would get on the open market. There is always a need for pitchers, especially ones that have proven the capability to close games. Colome did just that in 2016 and 2017, with 37 and a league-leading 47 saves, respectively.

Like Paxton, Colome finds himself heading into his age 30 seasons. He is still in his prime, even if he is on the back half of his window. Knowing that they will have another solid reliever on a team that has struggled with innings from their starters is a must for the Mariners. That’s why they say DEAL to Alex Colome.

Erasmo Ramirez: $4.4 Million – NO DEAL

If the Mariners are going to spend some money on a back of the rotation fringe starter, there are better options than Erasmo Ramirez. $4.4 million is actually a slight drop from the number he received last year, but he still isn’t worth it.

Ramirez hasn’t shown himself to be the same caliber of pitcher when he wears a Seattle uniform. When he was in Tampa, he put together a pair of sub 4.00 E.R.A seasons and threw 163.1 innings in one of them. On the Mariners, it’s a different story altogether.

During his time in Seattle, he has really struggled. 2017 looked to be promising, as he finished with a 3.92 E.R.A in 11 appearances, all starts. He managed 62 innings as well, and the thought was he would flourish and build in 2018. It didn’t happen, as he had the worst run of his career.

In ten starts, he didn’t even average 5 innings a start. He threw 45 innings and had a miserable E.R.A of 6.50. He just isn’t consistent enough to rely upon, which is why Ramirez gets NO DEAL.

Nick Vincent: $3.5 Million – NO DEAL

Vincent is a good reliever. He did struggle during his limited playing time in June and July due to injury. He got off to a poor start as well, posting a 6.10 E.R.A through 10.1 innings in March and April.

$3.5 million is a lot to pay a middle reliever, especially one is likely used in low-leverage situations most of the time. The Mariners would love to keep Vincent around. For what he is set to make, and the innings he throws, it comes in a little above what is reasonable.

If the Mariners didn’t have one of Colome or Diaz, Vincent would be a great guy to have, as he could lock down the 8th inning. With the number of relievers that the Mariners have already under contract, or coming back for cheaper, Vincent is the odd man out.

If the Mariners can, they will likely try to get some kind of value from Vincent this winter. He is a good pitcher, only going into his age 32 season. Watch for some kind of trade this year at the winter meetings. If not, Nick Vincent is going to get NO DEAL.

Justin Grimm: $1.6 Million – NO DEAL

Justin Grimm pitched great for the Mariners this year in the majors. He did only throw 4.2 innings for them though. The rest of them he was in the minors or struggling in Kansas City earlier in the year. He posted a 13.50 E.R.A. there during 12.2 innings of work.

Grimm hasn’t done much since the 2015 season as a member of the Chicago Cubs. That season was stellar, where he compiled a 1.99 E.R.A through nearly 50 innings, with a 12.1 strikeout rate. He looks like a much different pitcher over these last few years.

The stuff might not be there anymore for Grimm. In 2017, he dropped to 9.6 on his strikeout rate. In 2018, he was limited to 17.1 innings of big league action, and it fell to 5.7. That’s an immense drop-off, and worrying for his usefulness going forward.

Grimm is one of the easier decisions for Seattle to make. He doesn’t look like he is able to bring much to the table. There are other options the Mariners can go after, whether they are on the market or in-house. When it comes to Justin Grimm, the Mariners say NO DEAL.

Chris Herrmann: $1.5 Million – NO DEAL

Herrmann was released by the Diamondbacks before the season started, and signed with the Mariners two weeks later. As the M’s backup catcher, Herrmann ended up with just south of 100 at-bats. He posted a better slash line than Zunino but wasn’t the same catcher defensively.

Unlike Zunino, Herrmann doesn’t bring much power to the plate, with only two home runs in 2018. The Mariners could bring Herrmann back, as they know they would be getting a slightly below backup, albeit one who showed more promise than in recent years.

If the Mariners believe that they can get the catcher who played 56 games in 2016, and slashed .284/.352/.493, they would have a steal. If they get that same catcher who hit much worse in 2017, .181/.273/.345, they would be in a world of hurt.

Herrmann is one of the borderline Seattle Mariners arbitration-eligible players. With the struggles of Zunino at the plate this year, it would make sense for them to go out and try their luck with a different backup. Unfortunately for Chris Herrmann, that’s going to lead to NO DEAL.

Ryan Cook: $1.0 Million – NO DEAL

Ryan Cook is the easiest decision to make for the Mariners. Hoping to get the incredible reliever from 2012-2014, they took a chance on him in 2018. Unfortunately, he was unable to stay healthy and produce. Cook only managed 17.0 innings, in which he had a 5.29 E.R.A.

It was tough to expect much from Cook, as 2018 was his first big league action since 2015, where he struggled immensely in Boston and Oakland. Injuries played a large part, and he just hasn’t been the same since 2014. He only managed 8.2 innings in 2015, with an E.R.A. of 18.69.

The player from 2012-2014 could still be in there if Cook can manage to stay healthy. One all-star appearance, 190.2 innings and a 2.60 E.R.A. with a strikeout rate over 9.0 are all things any team would want. It doesn’t look like he is going to be able to get back to that level.

Although Cook is only projected at $1.0 million, his roster spot is better served being filled by someone else. This isn’t to say he doesn’t deserve another chance somewhere else, and it is likely one he will get. When it comes to the Seattle Mariners though, Ryan Cook is a NO DEAL.

Roenis Elias: $1.0 Million – DEAL

After a two-year stint with the Boston Red Sox, Elias came back to the Seattle Mariners. As a long reliever and spot starter, Elias provided a lot of worth to the Mariners in 2018. He had four starts, and finished with 51.0 innings through 23 games, with an E.R.A. of 2.65. Although his strikeout rate dropped, his control improved. Elias posted a career-best 2.8 BB/9 this season, bettering his previous low of 3.4 in 2015.

Elias is likely only going to cost the Mariners around $1.0 million in the upcoming season. If he produces anywhere near as he did in 2018, it’s going to be one of the better contracts on the team. Elias is still in his prime and joins Paxton and Colome as players heading into their age 30 seasons. With multiple years left in his arm and limited innings on it, there is no reason for a slowdown from Elias anytime soon.

The fact that Elias is a multi-tool asset is huge. He has the ability to come out of the bullpen for an inning or two. He also can make starts when needed, and get the team to the fifth or sixth inning. Having a long reliever weapon like that is something that many teams need, and the Mariners have one in Roenis Elias. That’s why, as the last Seattle Mariners Arbitration candidate, Elias gets a DEAL.

Hopefully, you enjoyed this edition of DEAL or NO DEAL with the Seattle Mariners arbitration candidates. Numbers aren’t set in stone yet, but history has proven that the projections are usually very close. Now it’s time to wait and see just how accurate we were, to see how many of the players we agreed upon with the Seattle Mariners.