A.J. Pollock to Mariners: Does it Make Sense?

As the MLB playoffs continue on to the division series, the Mariners and their fans find themselves in an all too familiar place: watching from the sidelines. But hey, there is always next year.

However, nobody ever got something done at a pity party. So today, we will begin our winter long voyage to find the players who will help end the Mariners 17-year playoff drought. And as much as we want Manny Machado or Bryce Harper to don the Navy Blue and Teal, it doesn’t do much good to focus on pie in the sky ideas.

Remember, the Mariners have some payroll flexibility, but certainly not enough to go crazy this winter, assuming they want to stick around the current payroll, which we wrote about here. So instead, we look at arguably the next best position player available to them, Arizona Diamondback’s CF A.J. Pollock.

The Player

Pollock is a 31-year-old outfielder who has spent his entire 7-year career with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The former first-round pick has already posted an exceptional career and has even flashed MVP level talent at times in his career. As an example, in 2015, Pollock slashed .315/.367/.498 with 20 home runs and 39 stolen bases, good for a 7.2 bWAR season.

Since then, Pollock has taken a step back but has still posted back to back solid years in 2017 and 2018. In the 2 seasons, Pollock has averaged 18 homers, 16 steals, and a solid .261/.323/.477 slash line.

Pollock also grades out as a solid but unspectacular defender in center field, posting a career 5.9 UZR/150. He was once an elite defender, but past injuries have limited him recently. Speaking of injuries, yes Pollock has had a fair share of them.

However, the overall concern for his health might be overblown. Aside for 2016, where he missed all but 12 games with a fractured shoulder blade, Pollock has been reasonably healthy, including 112 and 113 games played in 2017 & 2018.

Overall, Pollock’s career .281/.338/.484 slash line paints the picture of a middle of the order bat who provides above-average value as both a base-runner and defender.

The Fit

There are several factors that lead me to believe that Pollock could be a natural fit in Seattle. First and most obvious is the gaping hole in CF. Entering 2019 with Dee Gordon and Guillermo Heredia as your “plan” is one that is likely going to fail. Pollock represents an upgrade both defensively and offensively over both players, without sacrificing much base-running skill by replacing Gordon.

In addition, Pollock has a track record with Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto. Dipoto played a role in selecting Pollock 17th overall in the 2009 draft while working for Arizona as the Director of Scouting. We have witnessed such connections matter to Dipoto in certain cases, such as Jean Segura and Wade LeBlanc.

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There will always be concern about a National League player moving to the American League. People will almost certainly be willing to give you NL players who bombed for the Mariners. However, with names like Marco Gonzales, Mike Leake, Jean Segura, and Mitch Haniger producing after making the league jump, as well as any degree of common sense, this myth should be debunked by now.

In addition, to worry about going from Chase Field to Safeco Field, Pollock could very easily see his defensive numbers go up. Safeco has a smaller outfield surface to cover than Chase. Plus, Pollock’s career 113 wRC+, which is adjusted for league and ballpark, shows that Pollock will be just fine hitting at Safeco Field.

The Cost

Determining the cost of A.J. Pollock is difficult. His agents will almost certainly highlight his 2015 season, using it as justification to make A.J. Pollock the next $20 million a year player. However, they cannot bury the 3 straight seasons of playing less than 120 games, as well as the production drop as well.

Another factor that must be considered is the qualifying offer. MLB announced the QO will come in at $17.9 million. The Diamondbacks could slap the offer on Pollock, in the hopes of recouping a compensation pick after the first round of the 2019 draft. If they do, signing Pollock would require giving up the 20th pick in the draft.

However, Arizona could just as easily decide not to as well. Pollock may very well accept the offer. He will play all of 2019 as a 31-year-old, allowing him to enter free agency again after the season with no QO holding down his value with $17.9 million added to his account. The D-
Backs are headed towards payroll problems of their own quickly and may be inclined to just let Pollock head to free agency without taking any risk of absorbing a large contract.

Overall, these questions may very well help the Mariners drive down the cost of Pollock. With the questions about health, as well as age and potential ballpark factors, Pollock’s contract remains difficult to nail down.

At the end of the day, something in the neighborhood of 4 years for $60 million may be enough to to get into a bidding war, and adding a 5th year might be enough to tip the scales in the Mariners favor.

The Verdict

Personally, I am a fan of A.J. Pollock. I like the player. I like the upside. And I also am not overly concerned with his health. The Mariners need outfield help and to lengthen the lineup without sacrificing defense. Pollock checks all these boxes.

Of course, there is a limit to how much I am willing to gamble on a free agent. Pollock is no exception. But the positives far outweigh the negatives, and snagging high floor with MVP potential is a rare opportunity for Seattle. If they can stay somewhere in the 4 to 5 years and $14-$17 million AAV range, I am all aboard the Pollock train.