SEATTLE, WA - JUNE 11: Seattle Mariners 2016 first round draft pick Kyle Lewis watches batting practice before a game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on June 11, 2016 in Seattle, Washington. The Rangers won the game 2-1 in eleven innings. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
It is trade deadline season. The Mariners also just infused their farm system with a fresh draft class and an international free agent class. Now is a good time to re-evaluate what Seattle has to work with.
If you missed part 1 of the article, in which we discuss the Mariners 20-11 best prospects, you can see the complete list by clicking here. 9 of the players on part 1 were acquired by Jerry Dipoto and his team. Of those 9, 8 came via the draft. Only one was acquired by trade.
In part 2 of our Top 20 Mariner’s prospect countdown, we will look at the ten best prospects in the farm system, at least according to me. Of those 10, 9 were acquired by Dipoto and company. 6 of the 10 were drafted, 3 are international free agents, and 1 is a holdover from the Jack Zduriencik regime.
I highlight this specific breakdown to strengthen my case that Dipoto and company have done a good job at restocking the farm. As I mentioned in part 1, Dipoto has been far from perfect. However, there is no denying that the Mariners farm system is in better shape today than the day Dipoto got here.
The system is undoubtedly deeper. I had 45 names that I considered for the Top 20. The system has a depth of bullpen arms with good upside, as well as toolsy outfielders. There is some legitimate upside in this system. Despite what the ignorant masses will say, there are prospects in this system that other teams want.
Whether or not all 10 of these players will stick around for next week, let alone survive the off-season remains to be seen. But remember, the job of the farm system is to improve the MLB team. Either by developing players to wear the Mariners uniform, or developing these players to become trade assets. Here now are our 10 best Mariners prospects.
SEATTLE, WA – JUNE 11: Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto watches batting practice before a game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on June 11, 2016, in Seattle, Washington. The Rangers won the game 2-1 in eleven innings. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /
10. Juan Querecuto, SS Dominican Summer League
Juan Querecuto is a 17-year-old shortstop who was the less heralded international signing from Jerry Dipoto’s 2017 class. This doesn’t mean he is not a player worth being excited about. Signed for $1.23 million, Querecuto has an interesting toolset that could lead to MLB success.
Like other players the Mariners covet, Querecuto shows an advanced understanding and approach at the plate. He shows good bat speed and an ability to hit the ball to all fields. At 6’2″ and 175 lbs, Querecuto has room to add strength, which should lead to a bit more power as he matures.
Defensively, Querecuto has all the tools to remain at shortstop if he can add weight without losing any quickness. He has soft hands, quick feet, and a good feel for shortstop. If he does ultimately move to third base, he should be a plus defender, with a big arm as his best tool.
Like most 17-year-olds, Querecuto has a ways to go before he will be playing at the big league level. But he has solid or better tools across the board and a unique, disciplined approach at a young age. Querecuto’s upside is too high to ignore.
Sam Carlson was perhaps the most popular Jerry Dipoto draft pick in the industry. Widely seen as a Top 15 player of the 2017 draft, Carlson fell out of the first round due to signability questions. Dipoto and company took his with the 55th pick and signed him to a $2 million signing bonus.
The deal was well above-slot, but it garnered the Mariners 2 first round talents in 2017. Unfortunately, the 19-year-old Carlson recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of 2018. Even worse, 2019 is in serious jeopardy.
Prior to the surgery, Carlson projected as a #3 type of arm. The fastball sat between 93-97 with good arm side run. What separated Carlson from other prep arms were his 2 off-speed pitches. The slider was already a solid offering and flashed better in spurts.
More importantly, Carlson had an advanced changeup with good fade that he could command as well as his fastball. It was a legitimate out pitch. Now, with TJ surgery likely wiping out 2 full seasons, Carlson’s future is reliant on how he bounces back.
Thankfully he is a premier athlete, who was headed to Florida to both pitches and hit for the Gators before the Mariners snagged him in the second round. Praised as a hard worker, Carlson will work through this the best he can. Whether or not his body responds remain to be seen.
Full disclosure, Braden Bishop might be my favorite player in the entire Mariners organization. His efforts to increase awareness and raise funds to end Alzheimer’s and dementia are well documented from his 4MOM foundation. Plus, he is a University of Washington alum.
On the field, Bishop’s defense might be the single best tool in the entire minor league system of the Mariners. He is an elite defensive center fielder. He combines with his blazing speed with impeccable jumps and routes to haul in everything hit in his zone. He also has a good arm to help control the run game.
At the plate, Bishop was a work in progress who is progressing. He burst onto the scene in 2016 but fell off in a big way in 2017. However, in 2018 at AA Arkansas, Bishop was on fire. After a slow start, Bishop is now slashing .284/.361/.412 with 8 homers.
Unfortunately, Bishop’s season is now over. He was hit by a pitch a few days ago, which fractured his forearm. Bishop was likely headed to AAA Tacoma by the end of the year but might find himself back in AA at the start of 2019.
Bishop is a grinder at the plate, who has already made changes to his swing that have shown results. He has lowered his hands and tweaked the bat plane of his swing, which has generated more back-spin and power.
Whether or not Bishop is an everyday outfielder depends on how his bat continues to develop, but Bishop is, at a minimum, a great 4th outfielder for years to come. I wouldn’t sleep on Bishop being the next great Mariners CF, and you shouldn’t either.
When the Mariners first selected Casetta-Stubbs in the 11th round of the 2018 draft, I really didn’t think much of it. Truth be told, I had never heard of the prep right-handed. All I knew was that he was the first prep player Seattle had selected, which felt newsworthy.
Then, I received an interesting scouting report out of the blue. What I heard, and subsequently read, has me very excited for the future of Casetta-Stubbs. A fastball that sits in the low 90’s but has touched 97 as an 18-year-old will do that.
He is described as a sinker/slider type of starter, who might not be as far away as most prep players. Casetta-Stubbs is the second highest ranked pitcher on our list, and for good reason. There is still room for growth in his game and has even drawn comps to Jered Weaver.
6. Josh Stowers
The second round pick of the 2018 draft was met with criticism, especially from yours truly. But at the end of the day, he fit nearly perfectly with the Mariners obvious draft strategy. He dominated the college game and has good enough tools to be an everyday type of player down the road.
Stowers is a well built, good looking athlete. He dominated at Louisville in his sophomore and junior seasons and is already off to a good start in Short-A Everett. In fact, Stowers could be on his way to a promotion soon. He is slashing .278/.391/.489 with 4 home runs and 6 stolen bases in 8 attempts.
Stowers has already shown willingness to put in the work, making major tweaks to his swing at Louisville, and give him more pop than he previously had. He is a hard worker, who plays the game with a certain swagger that is sure to make him a fan favorite for years.
Defensively, Stowers is getting a chance to stick in CF. He has the speed and instincts to make it there but can easily make the transition to LF where he would likely be a plus defender.
Newly minted as the #2 prospect by MLB Pipeline, we slot Evan White as our 5th best prospect. This is no knock against White, who I am actually a pretty big fan of. Instead, it speaks to just how much better the Mariners farm system has gotten.
White, the #17 overall pick of the 2017 draft, gives the Mariners a fun profile to work with. He hits right-handed but throws left-handed. He is a Gold Glove level first baseman, who doesn’t hit for the power associated with the position. He is a great athlete, and some scouts speculate that he could handle centerfield well if the Mariners are concerned about his offensive output.
Having strict offensive expectations based strictly on position played is stupid, but that is a different topic for another day. As for on the field, White is having a season fairly typical to what his profile might suggest.
He is slashing .289/.354/.406 in the minors, mostly at High-A Modest (he got a small cup of coffee at AAA Tacoma as an injury replacement). Not a lot of power for a first baseman. On the year, White has 18 doubles, 4 Triples, and 6 home runs.
Again I’m not a fan of traditional statlines based solely on position, but White will need to hit for a bit more power to move back up into the Top 3 of our ranks.
We have now reached the international free agent signing tandem of our Top 10 Mariners prospects list. Julio Rodriguez was a major prize for teams in the 2017 international signing period, but the Mariners snagged him for $1.75 million.
The 17-year-old already looks like a good investment, as he has impressed scouts with his first foray into professional baseball. In the Dominican Summer League, Rodriguez is slashing an impressive .316/.401/.493 which fits his scouting profile like a glove.
Scouts have long been impressed with his approach at the plate and willingness to take walks. This isn’t a common trait for teenagers. He has a quick bat and can use the whole field, with more power on the way once he adds strength to his wiry 6’3″, 180 lbs frame.
Rodriguez has the arm and defensive ability to play a solid right field, and scouts believe his bat can be an impact, middle of the order type. Rodriguez might have the highest upside of any player in the farm system.
We go from last years darling of the international free agent class to this years prize. Ranked as the #7 international free agent by MLB Pipeline and #4 by Baseball America, Noelvi Marte is quite a steal for the Mariners.
Signed for a $1.55 million bonus, Marte is the type of player who is easy to dream on. A 6’1″, 180 lbs shortstop who already has an advanced approach with exciting power upside. He has a smooth swing that generates plenty of backspin, giving him a plus power tool.
He is actually a solid defensive shortstop and should be given an opportunity to stick there. If he outgrows the position, he would be a natural fit at third and has the potential to be plus there. One of the scouts who are highest on him dropped a Jose Ramirez comp.
Marte just missed the #2 ranking on this list, but it was decided we needed to see him in game action before we make that next step.
What??? Kyle Lewis at #2? Why? Well, simply put, he hasn’t exactly done much to prove that he is what we thought he would be. Now, there is the obvious caveat that his career was certainly derailed by a bad knee injury just 6 weeks after he was drafted 11th overall by the Mariners in 2016.
But since then, Lewis has struggled to stay on the field. When he does play, the results have been mediocre at best. As a 23-year-old in High A Modesto, Lewis mustered just a pedestrian .260/.303/.429 slash. For a first-round pick in the Cal League, you’d expect to see much more.
Lewis has been promoted to AA Arkansas, but not because he earned it. He was only promoted after Braden Bishop broke his forearm. The Mariners need to start seeing results. Lewis has the raw tools and is in his first full season back from the injury. There isn’t any reason to panic yet, but the days of assuming he is going to be a really good player are fading fast.
Lewis did participate in the Futures Game this year, which speaks to the type of upside he has if he can get right at the plate.
Scouting Grades- Hit: 50 Power: 55 Run: 50 Arm: 60 Field: 50 Overall: 55 ETA: 2019 Comp: Adam Jones
1. Logan Gilbert
Yes, the 2018 first round pick is the new #1 Mariners prospect. Logan Gilbert is an exceptional blend of high ceiling, high floor, with numbers and stuff to throw into the mix as well. Gilbert led college baseball in strikeouts in 2018. That alone has to raise one’s eyebrows.
Gilbert will not pitch in the organization this year, as he was worked hard in college and is currently battling mono. What fans will see next year is an advanced starter with 3 above-average pitches and a 4th that isn’t far behind.
Gilbert’s fastball sits in the low 90’s but has touched 97 mph. He can live at 94 mph if he wants but typically sits at 92 mph on most nights. Gilbert also has a nice slider which is a little more slurvey than your prototypical pitcher. He has a curveball as well, which lags behind his other 3 pitches.
The changeup is the real price of Logan Gilbert’s off-speed repertoire. It shows good fade and run and generates swings-and-misses, as well as soft contact. Gilbert is fine mechanically, but with most young pitchers, there are tweaks to be made to help improve his average control.
Gilbert has the non-injury floor of a #4 type of starter. If he refines his command a bit and is able to take one of his pitches from above-average to plus, he could be a #2 starter.
It is this blend of high probability to hit and decent probability to be great that puts Gilbert into our #1 spot.
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