Sodo Mojo’s Mariners Trade Deadline Plan

The Seattle Mariners should have one of the busiest deadlines of any MLB team over the next 3 weeks. Naturally, we all want to play GM, so that is exactly what we have done.

Over the past few months, we here at the website have been in trade mode, trying to find the perfect player for the Mariners. The mission is simple: end the drought. We have examined countless players and will continue to do so throughout the month.

For the first time since 2014, the Mariners are undoubtedly buyers. Over the first 2 full-seasons of Jerry Dipoto’s tenure, the team has largely been caught in the middle. The trades that Dipoto has made around this time of year can hardly be deemed moves of a “buyer”.

In year 1, he acquired Ariel Miranda for Wade Miley. He also dealt away Mike Montgomery for Dan Vogelbach. 2 vets for two prospects. He also swapped Joaquin Benoit for Drew Storen. He would later acquire Ben Gamel, Arquimedes Caminero and Pat Venditte in August.

These deals were interesting, considering the team finished the year at 86-76. It was odd to see a team in the race make these types of moves, but 2016 Mariners were never expected to crack the playoffs.

In 2017, Dipoto acted much more like a buyer, despite having less reason to. Last year around this time, he acquired David Phelps, Marco Gonzalez, Erasmo Ramirez, and Yonder Alonso. He would later acquire Mike Leake on August 30.

In hindsight, these moves have had a much bigger impact on the 2018 squad than the 2017 team. The moral of this story? We really cannot climb into the mind of Jerry Dipoto. That is for the best.

However, that was not our mission in the plan we are about to present. Our goal was not to predict what moves the Mariners will make. Instead, we set out to play GM and offer up our thoughts on what we would do.

We have attempted similar projects in the past, including our 2017-18 Off-Season Plan (if you want a good laugh, give it a read). This time, we have new contributors to the plan. We tried to be creative, and we wanted to be aggressive. After all, 16 years is long enough.

Now, without further ado, we present, for your consideration, the 2018 Sodo Mojo Trade Deadline Plan.

Trade 1: Leonys Martin for Ronald Rosario

Sometimes, retreads work. The Mariners have a major offensive hole in centerfield. Guillermo Heredia is a nice defender, with a nice track record of hitting LHP well. However, Heredia is just a career .230/.319/.304 hitter against RHP. Playing every day has exposed Heredia’s weakness.

This doesn’t mean Heredia is a bad player or not a useful piece. He is a strong 4th OF, but cannot start 140+ games for anybody. He needs help. Enter former Mariners CF Leonys Martin. While some will grimace at the sight of such a move, the numbers do not lie. Martin would be an upgrade to the Mariners.

Martin is in the midst of a career season, but his fit in Seattle is undeniable. Defense? Martin is plus in all 3 OF spots. Baserunning? According to Fangraphs base-running score, Martin is above-average there.

In addition, he has pop, something Mariners fans should remember when he clubbed 15 homers for the 2016 squad. Martin is a natural fit in Seattle, as well as a platoon partner with Heredia in CF.

Martin has always hit better against RHP than LHP, and in 2018, he is slashing .281/.356/.452 against righties. A 122 wRC+ would dramatically improve the team’s ability to score runs, as well as prevent more.

Martin is absolutely a better defender than Heredia. He is an upgrade in every way over Heredia and should be available at a reasonable cost. Seattle will need to do at least one of two things to keep themselves in the playoff hunt: either score more runs or give up fewer. Martin allows you to do both.

We already know Martin will work in the clubhouse. We know he is a better defender than Heredia. And we know he can help the team against RHP. For the cost of Ronald Rosario, a toolsy OF who has never played higher than Low A-Ball competition, it seems to be something Dipoto can swing.

In fact, we might be over-bidding on Martin. But we are willing to roll the dice on our proposal. Leonys Martin is such an obvious fit, we couldn’t ignore the idea.

Trade #2: Wyatt Mills and Bryson Brigman for Seth Lugo

One of the few consensus selections during this process, Seth Lugo is an ultra-intriguing RHP. The 28-year-old is currently being used as a swingman by the New York Mets. He is excelling in the “Chris Devinski” style role and could be insanely valuable down the stretch for Seattle.

Lugo has appeared in 29 games for the Mets in 2018, including 5 as a starter. In his 66 innings pitched, Lugo has posted a solid 3.42 FIP and 9.4 K/9. Lugo also has a long track-record as a strike thrower, posting a career 2.6 BB/9 rate.

Lugo is well known for the spin rate on his curveball, making it one of the better pitches in Major League Baseball. He primarily relies on his 93 MPH fastball to go along with the strong curveball. He does have a changeup and slider, but he rarely uses either.

Lugo still has a full season before he reaches arbitration, giving him 4 years of club control for the Mariners. The Mariners are really going to need to protect their rotation down the stretch. Unfortunately, there has been little movement on the starting pitching market thus far, and prices are widely considered to be “ridiculous” right now.

Taking these factors into account, we decided to be creative and find an innings eater who may, or may not, be a starting pitcher. 31 of Lugo’s 65 career appearances have come as a starter. The Mariners could transition him back to the rotation, or they could get creative.

Of his 24 relief appearances, Lugo has gone more than 1 inning 15 times. Do you follow our train of thought? Here’s an example:

Marco Gonzalez will need to be shut down, or have his innings severely cut before the end of 2018. So instead of adding an expensive starter to cover 6 innings, pair Marco Gonzalez with Seth Lugo. Marco throws 3 innings, Lugo throws 3. It keeps Marco fresh down the stretch, but also doesn’t shut him down completely.

We saw the Mariners do this last season with Marco Gonzalez and Andrew Moore, so it is already an idea that Seattle would consider.

Acquiring a 28-year-old with 4 years of club control and starter potential wouldn’t be cheap. The Mets will want potential impact who should be MLB ready soon. Wyatt Mills could be ready by the 2019 season. The Steve Cishek-esque pitcher was a third-round pick of the Mariners in 2017 and should find himself in AA soon.

Bryson Brigman is another 3rd round pick of Dipoto, who is having a breakout season in High A Modesto. A smooth defender, Brigman appears to be on the fast track to be a utility man down the line. If his bat continues to develop, he could become an every day second baseman.

Finding starting pitching will be difficult, particularly if Dipoto doesn’t wish to go down the rental route. Trading for a guy like Lugo adds another potential starter down the line, and a solid bullpen saver right now.

Trade 4: Seth Elledge, Juan Querecuto, David Frietas and Juan Mercedes for Kirby Yates and AJ Ellis

I told you it was an aggressive plan. The Mariners need bullpen help. They could also use a backup catcher. The San Diego Padres have both. We have written about Kirby Yates in the past and has more or less become the official ” pleas acquire reliever” of the site.

We already discussed Yates at length here. However, here is a quick rundown of the Padres reliever.

Yates is a 31-year-old RHP who has a history for missing bats and throwing strikes. A career 11.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 ratios confirm that. This season, Yates has finally put his skill set together and has posted a 1.51 ERA and a 0.925 WHIP.

Yates would give the Mariners, and more importantly Scott Servais, a bonafide setup man to use anytime after the 5th inning.

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Perhaps overlooked but still important in the deal, is 37-year-old catcher AJ Ellis. The Mariners could really use a backup catcher down the stretch. Ellis represents a polar-opposite offensive approach to Zunino. Ellis has just over 1,900 career PA and has an impressive .341 career OBP.

While most would expect Ellis to be slowing at 37, he is actually having an excellent year, slashing .295/.400/.371. Ellis has playoff experience which is a nice bonus feature. He works well with pitchers and has an excellent reputation for calling a game.

Zunino will absolutely get the majority of PA down the stretch, but having a player like Ellis can actually allow the Mariners to treat Mike like an MLB catcher, getting him off his feet 2-3 times a week.

For their services, the Mariners will have to part ways with 2 of the highest-upside prospects in their farm system. Querecuto was a big-time international signing just last season. He is a good athlete who can play anywhere on the field. Most scouts believe he will hit for a decent average and has a good approach at the plate.

Seth Elledge is a 2017 4th round pick, who could be MLB ready as soon as 2019. The fastball sits at 95 mph, with a heavy sink which produces groundballs and swings and misses. He also flashes solid-average slider and changeup.

If the Padres want to wait a bit longer, he may have the stuff to be a solid rotation piece in a few years. As of now, he is a potential late-inning high leverage reliever who will be up sooner rather than later.

Juan Mercedes is an 18-year-old in the Dominican League with solid upside, and David Frietas gives the Padres a younger, more controllable catcher to replace Ellis.

Trade #5: Aaron Loup for Luis Liberato

Finally, the Mariners get their second lefty. Aaron Loup is a 30-year-old bullpen arm, who has an ability to miss some bats. Over the past 4 seasons, Loup has posted a respectable 3.58 FIP, 9.9 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9.

Loup is a side-winding lefty, who uses his 92 MPH fastball most of the time. It’s not that Loup is a dominant reliever. He strikes guys out, but his 1.46 WHIP and 9.9 H/9 tell the rest of the story. You’ll still be using James Pazos in the high-leverage spot, but adding a second lefty with swing-and-miss stuff is never a bad thing.

Loup isn’t bad against RHH, but he is better against lefties. In his career, lefties hit just .224/.298/.320 against him. He also has a knack for getting the groundball. He is a 54.1% GB pitcher in his career and is at 45% in 2018.

Because of Loup’s lack of upside and short-term club control, the asking price shouldn’t be extortionate. We threw Luis Liberato in the deal. However, that could be more than the Blue Jays want for Loup.

Liberato is a 22-year-old outfielder who has plus run and defensive skills. The bat lags behind the other tools, although he has shown decent pop in the past. Liberato is a no for the Mariners. He is a maybe for the Blue Jays.

Wrap Party

Well, there you have it. Our trade deadline plan. We told you it was aggressive. Hopefully, you found it creative. Oh, and you can stop right there. I know what you’re thinking. You want to know where the starting pitcher is.

It’s a fair question. But one we’ve already partially answered. Starting pitching is expensive. There are a lot of buyers, particularly in the National League. The Mariners aren’t going to win many bidding wars for those guys, so finding one that makes sense is tough.

What the Mariners can do, is shorten the game, making their starting pitching less important. By adding Seth Lugo, you add an inning eater, albeit not a traditional one. By adding Loup, you have a second LHP who misses bats and gets groundballs.

Adding Yates gives you a fourth high-leverage option (5 if Nicasio figures it out). The new bullpen now looks like Edwin Diaz, Alex Colome, James Pazos, Juan Nicasio, Kirby Yates, Aaron Loup, and Seth Lugo or Nick Vincent. Adding these arms also allows Seattle to make a trade using an MLB player.

The Mariners have 37 men on the 40 man roster. We added 6 big league players. However, we traded Frietas and Povse, which brings us down to one spot on the 40 man roster. The easiest way to clear the spot is to DFA Andrew Romine since you now have Josh Harrison.

Now, finding 6 spots on the 25 man is a bit trickier. Removing Romine for Harrison is one. 5 spots to go. Elias and Bradford each have an option(s) remaining, so sending them down for Loup and Lugo is easy. Lugo also has 2 options, so moving him down if you want to stretch him out as a starter is possible.

Heredia could be optioned for a while, giving Haniger the start in CF against LHP, with Harrison manning a corner spot. Ryon Healy could also be optioned. Even Ben Gamel has an option left. Jerry Dipoto has done an excellent job of acquiring talent with roster flexibility, and this is one of the positives.

At the end of the day, do we think the Mariners will make this many deals before the July 31st trade deadline? No. It is highly unlikely. Could they add a handful of players to their 25 man roster? Yes.

We cannot forget that while the trade deadline is on July 31st, teams can still make trades after the player clears through waivers. You may see guys like Cole Hamels, Ervin Santana, and Jordan Zimmerman moved then.

Dipoto has no issues making deals in August. In his time in Seattle, he has acquired Mike Leake, Ben Gamel, and Yonder Alonso in these types of deals.

Next: The 10 Worst Mariners Since 2001

We don’t know what Dipoto will do in the next 20 days. All we know is what we would like to see him do. The Mariners are buyers. And with Jerry Dipoto at the helm, there is no guessing what he will do.