3 Fantasy Baseball Questions About Your Seattle Mariners
3. Which Mariner Am I Most Likely to Own?
Obviously, this player will vary for every player. In most of the mock drafts I have done, one Mariner finds his way onto my team more than any other. That player is Jean Segura.
It is not like I think Segura is undervalued. In fact, his current ADP of 77 feels right after his 2017 season. However, I can not help but feel excited when I see Segura on the board in the 8th round. But why do I feel this way?
A big part of the reason is, shortstop is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. There is a pretty big drop off after the big 5 (include Manny Machado on the list). Jean Segura still has 2016 potential, and is only 28 years old. He adapted well in his first full season in the AL, was a solid option for a majority of the season.
Second, the injuries that plagued Segura took away his most valuable tool: his speed. In the 2 years where Segura had a .300 OBP or higher, he stole 44 and 33 bases respectively. While in the 2 seasons where he was below .300 OBP, he stole 20 and 25 bases.
In 2017, Segura had a .349 OBP, but only stole 22 bases. So why point this out? For starters, Segura played in roughly 20 fewer games than he normally does, and also played a sizable chunk of the season recovering from an ankle and hamstring injury. The injuries effect to his run game can be easily traced, if by no other metric than his base-running score dropped from elite to below-average in one season.
Assuming 140 games from Segura, I would expect 30 or more steals. We documented how difficult is it is to find steals in fantasy, particularly in the AL. So Segura gives me the opportunity to fill a shallow position with a good hitter, who can give me the most difficult stat in fantasy baseball? Yeah sign me up.
In addition to steals, Segura also has a high floor in BA, has 15-20 home run pop, and should score a lot of runs hitting ahead of Robinson Cano, Cruz and Seager. Segura is a 3 category shortstop, with the potential to be solid average in a 4th category( HR’s). I’ll take that every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.