Mariners Analysis: Who Do The Experts Have the M’s Drafting Tonight?

Jerry Dipoto will make his first section as General Manager of the Mariners on Thursday night.

The Philadelphia Phillies will make the first pick in the 2016 Major League Baseball Draft on Thursday night at 4 pm PT. The first 77 selections will be made live this evening on MLB Network. The Seattle Mariners will make a pair of picks tonight, the first one coming at #11 and the final selection of the night will be at #50.

Speculation is rampant today leading up to tonight’s draft. Rumors are swirling, and mock drafts live on the front page of nearly every major sports site. Here at SoDo Mojo we have compiled who 10 of the leading draft experts have the Mariners picking at #11 tonight.

Mocks are important in the NFL Draft and NBA Draft, but they are an even more useful tool in the MLB Draft. Unlike in the NFL or NBA, the vast majority of tonight’s picks will be complete unknowns to the average (or even above-average) fan. We have not seen them star on Saturday afternoons in the SEC, or dominate for Duke in March Madness. The players selected tonight will be athletes who have received very little in the way of national attention.

Every journalist has their own opinion on how tonight’s draft will unfold, but there are a few trends emerging about who the Mariners will select. It appears many of the experts believe the M’s will either pick RHP Justin Dunn from Boston College or C Zack Collins from the University of Miami.

Previously drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 37th round of the 2013 draft, Justin Dunn is currently ranked by Baseball America as the 22nd best prospect in this year’s draft. Dunn has spent the bulk of his college career working out of the Eagles’ bullpen, but he transitioned to the starting rotation midway through this season. The Freeport, NY product went 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA across 17 appearances (7 starts) in 2016. Dunn is an athletic hurler who can hit 95 mph on the gun with relative ease. Here is a Q&A Dunn did with Chris Cotillo over at MLB Daily Dish.

Zack Collins is a 21-year-old backstop who hits from the left side of the plate. Previously selected by the Cincinnati Reds in the 27th round in 2013, this Hurricane is considered one of the most advanced college bats in this year’s draft. Collins slashed .358/.534/.631 with 13 home runs and 51 RBI across 57 games in 2016. He posted impressive offensive numbers in all three of his seasons in Miami. Here is a Q&A Zack did with Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish.

Now let’s turn our attention to what the professional pundits have to say about what the Mariners will do tonight in the first round. We will begin by looking at who Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has Seattle taking.

Next: Mayo likes Collins

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com – Zack Collins, C, Miami

“There has been a lot of talk about Dunn landing here, but he’s off the board in this scenario, and there was a sense that perhaps Seattle wasn’t on him as much as everyone thought. The Mariners have never shied away from bats, and Collins has one of the most advanced ones among the college crop, with his name surfacing as high as No. 5.” – Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com

Next: Callis Thinks it's a 'Dunn' Deal

Christopher Crawford, Sports Illustrated – Zack Collins, C, Miami

“Seattle would be jumping up and down if Ray makes it here, but that’s not happening. Boston College righthander Justin Dunn is the other name I hear strongly connected here, but an advanced collegiate bat like Collins who has a chance—albeit slim—to stay behind the plate is the likely choice for the Mariners”. – Chris Crawford, SI.com

Next: Baseball America Prefers Dunn

John Manuel, Baseball America – Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College

“As we wrote in our May 27 mock, Seattle is the first landing spot for Boston College’s Justin Dunn, who has the most helium in the draft and likely will be the second college starter picked. Seattle also could pop Rutherford here if the price is right.” – John Manuel, Baseball America

Next: Perfect Game Shocks the World

Patrick Ebert, Perfect Game – Corey Ray, OF, Louisville (Please let this happen!!!)

“Ray’s productivity this season has leveled of, although he still is plenty dynamic of a player and is still in the mix for the No. 1 pick. However, he also could be in a position to fall a few spots, based largely due to draft logistics, and if so he would make a lot of sense to go to the Mariners here. The M’s are also in on surging Boston College righthander Justin Dunn and could also be a destination for Blake Rutherford should he be available.” – Patrick Ebert, Perfect Game

Next: CBS Sports Goes with the Power Righty

Mike Axisa, CBS Sports – Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College

“New GM Jerry Dipoto emphasized college players during his time with the Angels, and it stands to reason he will do so again in Seattle. Dunn is something of a “pop-up guy,” meaning he’s improved his stock in recent weeks and has jumped into the first-round picture. He’s been a reliever for most of his college career, but he did get a chance to start this spring, at which point he took off. Dunn has a big fastball and a wide array of secondary pitches. He had a 1.49 ERA with 66 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings this year.” – Mike Axisa, CBS Sports

Next: Sporting News Goes the High School Route

Ryan Fagan, Sporting News – Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Ala.) HS

“In his first draft as the Mariners’ GM, Jerry Dipoto has said he’ll take the best available player with this pick, whether that’s a college or high school player. If Garrett, a 6-3 lefty, is around (he could easily be top 10), he could very well be the pick. He’s rated sixth on Keith Law’s top-100 prospects ranking. Buddy Reed, an outfielder for the Florida Gators who brings a ton of speed and would be a natural fit in Safeco Park’s outfield, would be a good option, too.” – Ryan Fagan, Sporting News

Next: Bleacher Report Foresee's Seattle picking Dunn

Joel Reuter, Bleacher Report – Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College

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“No college pitcher has more helium heading into the draft than Boston College right-hander Justin Dunn. In his latest mock draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis wrote: “The hottest draft rumor right now is that Seattle is going to take Dunn, and we’ll play along.” So will we. The Eagles closer to start the season, Dunn saw his draft stock take off after moving to the rotation in April, where his four-pitch repertoire played as well as scouts—many of whom had always pegged him as a future starter—had envisioned. All told, Dunn has gone 4-1 with two saves and a 1.49 ERA, 1.028 WHIP and 66-16 K-BB ratio in 60.1 innings He has a chance to be the first college right-hander taken, with the pecking order for those arms still somewhat up in the air. We have him going after Dakota Hudson, but don’t be surprised if he sneaks into the top 10. If that winds up happening, the Mariners could target a handful of other collegiate arms or prep outfielder Blake Rutherford with this pick.” – Joel Reuter, Bleacher Report

Next: Walter Football Thinks the M's will Pick Dunn

Charlie Campbell, Walter Football – Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College

“The Mariners’ farm system is thin in the pitching department, and Dunn should quickly change that outlook.” – Charlie Campbell, Walter Football

Next: Draft Utopia Believes the M's will Add Collins

Chris Ransom, Draft Utopia – Zack Collins, C, Miami

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“Buddy Reed’s batting average has declined. In the wake of this news Seattle gets another catcher after the Mike Zunino experiment failed after Seattle took Florida’s catcher third overall in 2012. Zack Collins of Miami FL and Chris Okey of Clemson were competing to be the top catcher in the 2016 MLB Draft. Collins batted .302 and his 15 home runs were superior to Okey’s 12 in 2015. Collins also posted 70 RBI’s as a sophomore. The 6-3 220 lb catcher posted a .298 batting average and 11 home runs as a freshman which tells you he’s a pretty consistent and reliable home run hitter. Chris Okey has been terrible in 2016 after entering the preseason as a top 10 prospect late in 2015 while Collins has a .353 batting average, 12 home runs, and 52 RBI’s in 2016. Collins dominated against Okey in the battle of the nations best ACC catcher. Collins also gave problems to Pittsburgh starting pitcher T.J. Zouch.” – Chris Ransom, Draft Utopia

Next: M’s Continue to be Ignored in All-Star Voting

Make sure you tune in to MLB Network tonight at 4 pm PT to find out who the Mariners actually end up picking at #11. I’d be happy with either Justin Dunn or Zack Collins, but my dream is that Corey Ray falls to Seattle. It’ll be interesting to see what direction Dipoto opts to go with his first selection as M’s GM.