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Mariners Analysis: New-look M’s Hope to Thrive at Safeco Field in 2016

By Nick Lee

Jul 31, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; San Francisco Giants left fielder Nori Aoki (23) during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers defeated the Giants 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 31, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; San Francisco Giants left fielder Nori Aoki (23) during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers defeated the Giants 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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The new-look Mariners are well suited to Safeco Field. But will it translate to more wins in 2016?

Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has been one of the most active names in baseball’s (too) long offseason. He has wheeled-and-dealed with numerous teams to build a roster that is better fit to succeed playing 81 games at Safeco Field.

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The main problem for the Mariners last season was a lackluster offense. The bullpen was an issue too, but the Mariners squandered numerous chances to win games because they struck out or hit weak pop flies to infielders. Time and time again, the Mariners had a runner on second with no one out or even on third and came up with absolutely nothing. Dipoto has built a team that is more conducive to the spacious Safeco Field.

People say Safeco Field is not a hitter’s park. I argue that it is not a power hitter’s park. It certainly can be a hitter’s park, for the right kind of hitter. Safeco is for the hitter who hits gap to gap, looking for doubles and nooks and crannies to find hits. It is for the hitter who just wants to scrap to get on base somehow. It’s not built for guys like Nelson Cruz (which makes his 2015 season even that much more impressive) or a Chris Davis-type of home-run-or-bust hitter.

The stat the 2016 Mariners need to focus on is on-base percentage. Now, I am not going to get into these crazy analytic stats like WAR, DRS or OPS+. Just the simple on-base percentage (OBP), which calculates total plate appearances divided by hits, walks and how many times hit by pitch.  The Mariners were atrocious in that category last season. Seattle ranked 22nd in baseball with a team OBP of .311.

The Mariners need to use Safeco Field to their advantage and make their opponents struggle, not the other way around. Let’s compare the new acquisitions with the players they replaced in regards to OBP. Nori Aoki was signed to be a slap-hitting table-setter at the top of the lineup. His career OBP is .353, over 40 points higher than Seattle’s team total last year. His 2015 number was also .353. That would have been second on the M’s last season, only Cruz at .369 was better (just think how much worse the Mariners’ OBP would have been without Cruz’s monster season). He is essentially replacing Mark Trumbo in the outfield. Trumbo finished with a .316 OBP.

Jul 22, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Adam Lind (24) drives in a run with a base hit in the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 22, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Adam Lind (24) drives in a run with a base hit in the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

The M’s acquired Adam Lind, who is a good lefty first baseman with some pop. He has a lifetime .332 OBP (which would have been 3rd on last year’s team) and had a .360 season last year, just 9 points short of Cruz’s team lead. He is replacing Logan Morrison. As a team, the Mariners got the least amount of offensive production from their first basemen of any team in baseball. Compare Lind’s .360 to Morrison’s 2015 on-base percentage, which was .302. Needless to say the Mariners have upgraded at that position.

In another case, the Mariners added a veteran catcher in Chris Iannetta to perhaps mentor the struggling Mike Zunino. Iannetta had arguably his worst season as a major leaguer last season and still had a much better on-base percentage than Zunino. Iannetta got on base at a .293 rate in comparison to Zunino’s horrible .230. Iannetta also has a lifetime OBP of .351.

In total, these three new players  had a combined 158 points more in on-base percentage last year than the players they replaced. This is great news for a Mariners team that needs more runs to support what should be a solid starting rotation.

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On the other side, defense was an issue as well. Trumbo made four errors in the outfield and had a .982 fielding percentage. Nori Aoki did not make a single error in 140 total chances in the outfield in 2015 for the Giants. He also is likely putting Nelson Cruz at full-time DH. Cruz had his share of adventures in right field last year and had a .975 fielding percentage.

Newly acquired Leonys Martin looks to take over in center field, the most important piece of an outfield. For the Texas Rangers last season, he was an excellent fielder, posting a .996 fielding percentage, which would have led all outfielders for the Mariners last year.

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In short, on-base percentage and defense are key to playing well at Safeco Field. It is quite obvious the Mariners are better in that regard heading into 2016. Doing those two things well could mean the difference between 74 wins and 84+ wins. Maybe Jerry Dipoto knows what he is doing after all. Only time will tell.

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