Kyle Seager: 2015 Projections With The Seattle Mariners


Can Kyle Seager live up to his new 7-year, $100 million contract extension inked this offseason with the Seattle Mariners?

With 15 days until full-squad workouts at Spring Training, it’s time to make projections for the All-Star third baseman in his 5th year with the M’s.

Let’s first look at his old numbers, then jump to Steamer projections and finally my own projections for the 2015 season.

Kyle Seager Career Numbers:

.262/.328/.429 with 70 home runs, 264 RBI, 107 doubles, 179 walks, 386 strikeouts in 527 games.

162-game average: .262/.328/.429 with 22 home runs, 81 RBI, and 10 stolen bases.

2014 season: .268/.334/.454 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI, 52 walks and 118 strikeouts.

In each of his first four seasons in the Major Leagues, Seager’s numbers have improved. And a the age of 27, hitting his peak years, it’s no stretch to imagine his numbers improving once again in 2015.

So how does Steamer over at Fangraphs project Seager’s 2015 campaign?

Steamer Projection: .262/.330/.433 with 21 home runs, 78 RBI, and 79 runs scored. With both positive offensive and defensive numbers, Seager is projected to be worth 4.1 WAR.

These projections are a bit surprising, as Seager hit for better average, OBP, and slugging in 2014 with more home runs and more RBI, worth a total of 5.5 WAR. Why does Steamer expect regression?

For one thing, Seager will now be taken seriously as a hitter and defender in 2015. Pitchers won’t sleep on his left-handed bat, and will attack his perceived weakness.

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But, on the flip side, Seager has gotten better each year in the Majors, and has benefitted from year after year of experience. Moreover, Seager will now be hitting behind both Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, putting him in great position to drive in runs. Granted, as the 5th hitter in the middle of the order, pitchers may try to pitch around him more, but Logan Morrison and Mike Zunino, who will likely hit behind him, have the pop to punish opposing pitchers for that decision.

Even as a Mariners fan, I think my projections for Seager are fair, considering his consistent projection over the years, and his entering into his prime.

For 2015, my projections are: a .272/.340/.460 triple slash with 23 home runs, 100 RBI (woohoo!), another All-Star appearance and Gold Glove caliber defense at the hot corner.

Though 100 RBI may be a lofty projection, think of the improvements up and down the Mariners lineup. Seager hit 96 RBI last season with little lineup projection, so an improved offense can only help his numbers.

What do you think? Does Seager make his second consecutive All-Star appearance, anchoring a powerful and imposing middle of the order? How do you project Kyle Seager for the 2015 season?