Seattle Mariners Pre-Offseason WAR is 2nd Highest in MLB

In a recent post I talked about the Seattle Mariners having 18/1 odds to win the 2015 World Series (good enough for 8th best odds in baseball).

And today I happened across a tweet from Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan that really grabbed my attention:

I had to check it out for myself. And, in fact, the Mariners have the second highest team-WAR totals in the MLB behind only the Washington Nationals. The Nationals have a 2015 projected WAR of 41.1. The Mariners are right on their heels with 39.3 WAR.

Here is how Steamer breaks down those values, with an additional opinionated sentence or two from yours truly:

Catcher WAR: 3.0:

Mike Zunino had a 1.7 WAR for the 2014 season. Assuming he bats over the Mendoza line and his defense maintains, it wouldn’t be any great surprise that he gets over the 2.0 WAR mark in 2015. This number will be heavily dependent on how his backup(s) perform on his off days.

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First Base WAR: 1.8:

In only 365 plate appearances Logan Morrison had 1.0 WAR in 2014. If he gets 600 PAs at the same production level, that WAR would likely sit right around the 1.8. Considering the volatility of the Mariners’ first base situation, this is a fair number.

Second Base WAR: 5.3:

Hmm, wonder why this one is so high? That’s because the Mariners have Robinson Cano playing second base (it still sounds so sweet to say it). He was worth 5.3 WAR on his own last season, so even with a slight regression in contribution, a dozen or so games by a backup would get the M’s that 5.3. This seems a reasonable if not slightly generous total.

Third Base WAR: 4.4:

Projecting Kyle Seager for a 4.4 WAR on his own is entirely reasonable. In 2014 he led Mariners position players in WAR at 5.5, and he struggled through the tail end of the season. If he continues his professional approach at the plate and improved defense, there’s no question the Mariners can get even more that 4.4 WAR out of third base in 2015.

Short Stop WAR: 3.4:

This one is a bit troubling. Brad Miller struggled mightily throughout the beginning of the season and was replaced by Chris Taylor with a few months left to play. In his short time with the M’s Taylor had a 1.4 WAR, but his .398 BABIP is unsustainable. In a longer stint at short, Miller also provided 1.4 WAR as his numbers had a considerable uptick at the end of the season. That right there is 2.8 WAR. If Miller can improve offensively, and if these two both can step it up out in the field, 3.4 WAR is possible, though a bit generous for the two young short stops.

And on to the outfield…

Sep 28, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher

(34) pitches to the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0:

This projection for the Mariners is tied for the 2nd-highest in baseball with the Cleveland Indians and behind the stellar rotation of the Washington Nationals.Felix Hernandez  alone accounted for over half the 2015 projection last season (with a 6.2 WAR). Even if Felix comes down to earth and only manages a 5.0 WAR, and Hiashi Iwakuma provides another 3.0+ WAR performances, the M’s would only need a collective 4.0 WAR from the 3-4-5 in the rotation. In only 74.0 innings pitched James Paxton accounted for 1.3 WAR last season. Double his innings and it’s fair to expect 2.0 WAR out of him in 2015. Roenis Elias had 1.3 WAR in over 150 innings pitched. And, assuming Taijuan Walker isn’t traded, it’s reasonable enough to expect a 1.2-1.5 WAR contribution from him next season (Steamer projects him at 1.2 for 2015).

Even putting those numbers together gets roughly 12.5 WAR from the rotation. The Mariners could easily out perform these numbers if the youngsters keep performing or if the M’s get a free agent starting pitcher. But at the same time be wary, because the overwhelming youth of the rotation could at the same time be it’s undoing.

Relief Pitching WAR: 2.1:

The highest relief pitching WAR projection by Steamer is 4.o for the Kansas City Royals. By nature, bullpens are one of the most volatile things in baseball. Even just combining Fernando Rodney‘s (1.2) and Danny Farquhar‘s (0.9) WARs from 2014 would reach this Steamer projection. Not to mention the positive work by Domonic Leone and Carson Smith and Tom Wilhelmsen and Yoervis Medina and Charlie Furbush.

This bullpen could easily be worth the rough 3.7 WAR it was in 2014, but again, with it’s youth and the inconsistencies of bullpens, it could be worth 1.0 WAR as well.

So what is there to get out of all these WAR numbers besides interesting anecdotes? On paper, the Mariners have a team that ought to be respected. With key additions in the weakest links, this team could be one built for the playoffs on pitching and defense.

Add it all up and the Mariners are projected to be worth 39.3 WAR in 2015. That’s definitely something worth paying attention to.

WAR is not an absolute indicator of player and team success, but it does lend itself to the quality of play by players. If these WAR projections do become indicators of the Mariners’ 2015 season, expect October baseball in the Pacific Northwest.