Seattle Mariners Playoff Scenarios


Things certainly haven’t been going Seattle’s way over the last week, but we all know that the M’s haven’t yet been eliminated from the postseason. Let’s take a look at some Seattle Mariners playoff scenarios.

After yesterday’s win in Toronto and Texas’s walkoff win over the A’s, the Mariners are now 2.0 games back of the A’s heading into the final series of the regular season. The Royals and Indians are still in the picture too, so there’s going to be a lot of scoreboard watching over the weekend.

There’s no room for error here as the M’s basically need to sweep this series and get some help from the rest of the league. There is some room for a tiebreaker if the M’s go 2-1 over the weekend, but it’s going to need some pretty special stuff to happen in Texas and Cleveland. Here’s how it plays out:

Possible Mariners Playoff Scenarios. Multiple tiebreaker scenarios exist.

Scenario: Mariners Sweep Series (3-0)

  • Mariners advance to Wild Card birth with Oakland 0-3 over the weekend.
  • Mariners advance to tiebreaker with Oakland 1-2 over the weekend or Kansas City 0-3. Obviously, this means we could be looking at a three-way tie for two spots in this scenario*.
  • One win from Kansas City will secure them a playoff birth.
  • Two wins from Oakland will secure them a playoff birth.

Scenario: Mariners Win Series (2-1)

  • Mariners advance to tiebreaker with Oakland sweep (0-3) over the weekend
  • Kansas City secures a playoff birth with any Mariners loss.
  • One win from Oakland secures them a playoff birth.

Scenario: Mariners Lose Series or get Sweep (1-2, 0-3)

  • Mariners are eliminated

There exist multiple tiebreaker scenarios depending on how everyone does. Including what happens in Cleveland this weekend. Importantly, it doesn’t matter who the M’s face in the tiebreaker, they will get home field advantage.

Tiebreaker home field advantage is determined by head-to-head wins over the season:

Mariners v. Kansas City: 5-2

Mariners v. Oakland: 10-9

Mariners v. Cleveland: 4-2

In the event of a three-way tie, the Mariners also hold the A position, meaning the other two teams will play for the chance to get into a tie breaker. In terms of tie-breaker scenarios go, this is the best case for the M’s.

It’s clear what needs to happen here Seattle, lets go get it.