Who Will Be In the Mariners 2014 Starting Rotation?

As Dan noted on December 28th, the Mariners have been largely inactive over the last few weeks. Not so coincidentally so have I. There is nothing less satisfying than being stuck taking finals while the Mariners lay relatively dormant since the Robinson Cano – Corey Hart – Logan Morrison barrage. Since then the M’s have re-signed Franklin Gutierrez to an incentive-laden contract and given minor-league deals to Cole Gillespie and Matt Palmer.

So safe to say it’s been a boring Christmas… and it is also safe to say that if the Mariners do not make anymore moves, this offseason will be a failure and the contract given to Cano will end up being an even bigger albatross than it already is.

If I had to choose one move that is absolutely imperative for the Mariners at this juncture is to get another proven starting pitcher. Someone who will throw 180+ innings and someone who will NOT be Joe Saunders or Kevin Millwood or Aaron Harang. Getting a pitcher at this juncture is more important than getting another bat: it would be unwise for the M’s to only have Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma as proven starters in the rotation.

So who is that pitcher going to be? David Price? It seems like the M’s, for the moment are out on Price. I said seems though– he has a huge price tag (no pun intended) for only two years of service, and right now the M’s aren’t in a position to make those two years worth the deal.

Ubaldo Jimenez? In my opinion (and yes it is an opinion) last year was too much of an outlier Jimenez. He was good earlier in his career, then had a resurgence last season… but I do not think that year-long resurgence warrants the kind of contract he wants.

For me, then, and for the Mariners, I think it feasibly comes down to three guys: Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, and recently posted Masahiro Tanaka.

And even though we’ve seen the numbers time and time again, let’s look at these three one last time (fingers crossed) in hopes that the Mariners will soon make a move– though of course a move is dependent on whether or not the Mariners are out of money (thanks Ken Rosenthal).

Garza has far more upside than Santana even though he is only a year younger. He spent three really solid years in Tampa Bay, and pitched well in Chicago the last few seasons before struggling to end last season in Texas with the Rangers.

He would cost more than Santana with a five or six-year deal at $12 million a season. Though it could cost a few more millions because, well, it’s the Mariners.

Why I like Garza: his career numbers slot perfectly as the Mariners number 3: he has a career 3.84 ERA and has good pitch control and location. He also sports a career 1.24 WHIP and his numbers and fly ball rates seem to slot well into the Safeco Field confines (that seems to be a trend). And more than anything else Garza is a gamer with significant playoff experience and the moxie to improve this rotation from day 1. Moreover, Garza has the potential to pitch with number 2 type stuff which would make the M’s rotation devastating if Walker and Paxton make even marginal strides.

Why I don’t like Garza: he had a rough end to 2013, and he is thirty now and could start waning very soon. It is so tough to tell with pitching, and of course there is always risk in signing a free agent who is hitting the tail end of his prime and had a rough end to the season. More than anything else though, he would provide some rotation stability for the M’s, something that is desperately needed.

Of the free agent pitchers still available Garza is the best bet and the best fit for the Mariners. I really wanted them to sign Bartolo Colon, but he got 2 years from the Mets and that is WAY TOO MUCH for a 40-year-old buffalo.

The prize of the free agent market now, though, is Tanaka. And the Mariners could be a real dark horse in signing the Japanese fireballer.

Last but certainly not least is Masahiro Tanaka, a 24-year-old out of Japan who has the potential to be a solid 2 in the MLB.

This last season Tanaka had absurd numbers with the Rakuten Golden Eagles: a 24-0 regular season record was a 1.27 ERA. I’ll say that again: 24-0 and a 1.27 ERA. Granted, this came against lesser competition, but numbers like those are not something to scoff at.

Why I like Tanaka: he is young, he is talented, and he is Japanese (which plays well to the very international Mariners fan base). Some liken him to a Yu Darvish but a step down, and some say he is similar but has potential to improve with his young age. Also, the Mariners own Hisashi Iwakuma played with Tanaka at Rakuten, something that could be an ace up the Mariners sleeve when it comes to the bidding war. This is especially important because the max bid is $20 million, and it is certain that a number of teams will offer up that kind of money to negotiate with Tanaka.

Why I do not like Tanaka: there are always question marks that come with players who started their careers elsewhere. The MLB is far and above the toughest baseball competition in the world– so who knows if his ERA will go from 1.27 to 3 or balloon all the way to 4.5. It is really hard to say. Moreover, most analysts (including Buster Olney of ESPN) do not even have the Mariners pegged as a top 5 team to nab Tanaka. If anything, it would take some serious finagling to get him in a Mariners uniform. Also, he would require a serious investment that will carry high risk.

In the end it’s anybody’s best guess who the Mariners might bring in to fill out the rotation. But more than anything else they NEED to bring someone in, otherwise this Cano spending spree will start to look like a disaster much sooner than we would like it to.