Robinson Cano’s Contract: The Other Story

While the whole baseball world was turned on it’s head Friday with the news that Robinson Cano had agreed to a 10-year $240 million contract with the Seattle Mariners, there is a valid gripe being tossed around.

Too much money over too long a time.

I’m going to take a very unpopular stance here. I’m going to argue against not necessarily the money per year, but the length of the contract.

But let me first say this: I understand WHY the Mariners felt they needed to do this. They have been looking for that shot in the arm, that spark plug, that one big free agent signing that would help lure others and convince the fan base that the team was serious about improving itself.

But that doesn’t mean I can’t point out just a few of the reasons why this is actually a bad idea.

The 10-year deal Cano will sign will take him through his age 41 season (like the one Raul Ibanez just completed). Are we to expect that Cano will be capable of hitting at least 29 homers at age 41? Thus topping the record Ibanez set this year?

Cano is an average hitter as well. So are we to expect that Cano – at age 40 and 41 – can hit as well as Stan Musial did at 40 (.330) or Ted Williams at 41 (.316)?

For the contract to be worth the the kind of money the Mariners are throwing at him, we should have to expect that Cano will break – or at the very least tie – records by players of that age.

How many times has a player who signed a long-term deal (7 years or longer) actually stayed relevant and productive? There have been 29 MLB contracts of 7-11 years in length.

Let’s look at them:

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Seven Year Deals

Kevin Brown– The first 7+ year deal in MLB history was signed by starting pitcher Kevin Brown in 1999. In those seven seasons (ages 34-40) Brown had a record of 72-45, a WAR of -0.6 (he never had a positive WAR in his career) and missed approximately 70 starts (10 per year) due to injuries.

Jason Giambi– His contract with the Yankees ran from 2002 to 2008 (ages 31-37). Giambi hit 40+ homers twice and knocked in 100+ RBI three times in that span. He led the league in walks twice and OBP once. He missed a significant amount of time in 2004 and 2007. He batted over .260 only twice in that 7-year span.

Albert Pujols– His first big deal, with St. Louis in 2004, was during his prime. I will give the Cardinals a pass on this. A 7-year deal to a 24-year-old makes sense to me.

Carlos Beltran– Again, a 7-year deal to a 28-year old makes sense. I won’t knock this either.

Barry Zito– Tied with Kevin Brown as the worst long-term contract for a pitcher in history. Zito was 29 when he signed a 7-year deal with the San Francisco Giants. Over the life of the deal, Zito posted a record of 63-80 with a 4.62 ERA and a WAR of 3.0 (not each year, but for the full seven years). After going 102-63 in the seven seasons prior, the Giants had no clue what they were getting.

Vernon Wells– The Toronto Blue Jays signed Wells to a 7-year deal in 2008. He was 29, can’t fault that too much….though the Jays ended up trading him in 2011.

C.C. Sabathia– Sabathia signed a 7-year deal at the age of 28. Can’t blame the Yankees for that. It’s worked out pretty well for them.

Matt Holliday– Holliday signed in his age 29 season. So far the returns have been good for the St. Louis Cardinals. But over the next two – final two – years of the deal, we shall se if the production drops off.

Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury are in the first few years of their deals (Ellsbury just signed). Only time will tell whether they were good deals.

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Nine, Ten and Eleven Year Deals

Ken Griffey Jr.- If there were ever a cautionary tale when it comes to long-term deals, look no further than The Kid. A 9-year deal offered to a 30-year old is pushing the envelope, and it didn’t work out too well for the Cincinnati Reds. He missed 472 games – almost three full seasons – over the 9-year contract. He was an All-Star three times in that period (compared to 10 straight years as an All-Star while in Seattle).

Prince Fielder– Singed a nine-year deal at the age of 28 and was traded after year two. Not because of anything he did. So far he has been earning his paycheck. Time will tell if the full 9-year deal was worth it.

Alex Rodriguez– A-Rod signed not one, but two different 10-year contracts. If you need me to explain whether either of these two deals was worth it or not, you haven’t been paying attention.

Derek Jeter– The face of a franchise signed to a long-term deal at the age of 27? Not going to argue with that.

Troy Tulowitzki‘s, Albert Pujols‘ new deal in Anaheim and Joey Votto‘s new deal are too new to judge. But Pujols’ new deal has him signed through age 42. If his first two seasons are any indication, I’d say it was a terrible idea.

Todd Helton– Helton signed the only 11-year contract in sports history in 2001. After year one, he was never the power hitter he had once been but he had some decent years. At the end of the day, Helton was still only 37 at the end of that 11-year deal.

As you have seen, the track record for long-term deals has not been good. And, most of the long-term deals signed over the years has been for younger players and for shorter than 10 years.

Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

There are red flags in the Cano deal.

Now back to what is being reported as the 10-year, $240 million deal agreed to by Cano. The length and dollar amount is exactly the same contract that Pujols signed with the Los Angeles Angels. Pujols was 32 and the first two years have been troublesome already. He has hit .275 with 47 HR and 169 RBI in the two years combined, for a guy that averages .321/41/124 a year.

But there are some red flag indicators in Cano’s history to point out. In 2013, he hit his fewest homers since 2009, his slugging percentage was the lowest since 2008, his runs were the lowest since 2008 and the last time we saw him in the playoffs (2012) he disappeared – .075, 0 HR, 4 RBI in 9 games.

His slash line in 2013 was .314/.383/.516, all slightly above his career slash averages of .309/.355/.504. But his runs scored, total bases and walks were all below career averages. The numbers don’t exactly scream 10-year $240. In Pujols’ age 30 season, he slashed .312/.414/.596 with 42 homers, 118 RBI and 115 runs scored.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope Cano comes to Seattle and bats .325 with 35 homers and 110 RBI for the Mariners every year for the next 10 years.

I just fear that the price of “making a splash” this offseason is that we will be irrelevant again in under five years.

Again, I truly hope I am wrong.