Thoughts: Casper Wells


I had a bit of fun regressing Wells numbers from this year since there seems to be a lot of talk about him being a product of luck. Make of the numbers what you will.

                                      BABIP | HR/BIA | wRC+

Casper Wells               0.333 |     31.6%    |  131

                                                 xBABIP | HR/BIA | ShH

Casper Wells regressed      .303     |      11%       |   99

I know that a lot of people think I’m crazy, but I don’t see any reason to upgrade from a Casper Wells right now. The current market for bats is crazy expensive right now and having a league average hitter that has the arm to play right field and the range to play center (especially in a place like Safeco) is an asset going forward.

199 PAs is obviously a small sample size in which to analyze but he isn’t a difficult guy to figure out. He’s going to drive the ball a lot, walk slightly below average and display plus right handed power all the while playing  above average defense.

76 different outfielders with at least 190 PA (the same small sample size as Wells) have posted an wRC+ of at least 99. Of that pool only 18 have posted a better OF Fielding numbers than Wells. That group is small and it’s comprised primarily of the whose who.

wRC+ / Fld

Matt Holiday 163 / 5.2

Shane Victorino 159 / 6.5

Justin Upton 145 / 12.6

Jacoby Ellsbury 144 / 11.2

Ben Zorbist 140 / 10.1

Mike Staton 139 / 5.3

Alex Gordon 136 / 3.7

Andrew McCutchen 133 / 7

Corey Hart 123 / 3.4

Cameron Maybin 119 / 5.8

Nyjer Morgan 119 / 6.5

Peter Bourjos 117 / 10.2

Andre Either 114 / 3.7

Josh Reddick 113 / 4.7

Shin Soo-Choo 108 / 5.6

Eric Hinske 107 / 3.8

Gerardo Perra 104 / 13.5

Carlos Lee 101 / 7.1

Jason Bourgeois 99 / 3.2

Now, ending that list with Hinske, Perra and Bourgeois doesn’t instill a lot of hope but the point is to give you a reference of where I am coming from.  There is possibly 3 maybe 4 obtainable pieces on that list and they are all at the bottom.

I believe Wells is a potential 4-5 WAR out fielder. Putting him in right field with Carp in left and Gutierrez patrolling center gives a potential for a 15 WAR out field going into next year.

Everyone has their own opinions and I have mine.