Buy, Sell, Hold. Taking Stock Of The Current Roster
By Keith Myers
There are many different ways to look at the players that currently make up the Seattle Mariners. Statistics, contract, value; we’ve touched on all of them here at Sodo Mojo. Today though, I’d like to look at the roster in a different way, namely, by examining how the fan base views each player.* I’ll be doing this from time to time from now on; perhaps monthly.
The idea here is to imagine that it is possible buy stock in each player, like one might buy stock in a company. The point isn’t to point out who’s stock is worth more than another, but instead who’s stock might be overvalued, and who’s might be undervalued. If you’re going to make money at this, you need to buy low and sell high. You also need to be able to recognize and predict general trends and get in ahead of the curve, which is truly the hard part.
This has nothing to do with what the M’s should do with their roster. If I say a player should be sold I am NOT calling for the Mariners to trade that player. It just means that, in my opinion, the fans are currently overvaluing that player. It should also be noted that player stock prices are based on their current production, not their potential for future production.
*In the interest of full disclosure, I need to point out that this feature was Harrison’s idea. He’s better at managing this blog than he gives himself credit for.
|Felix Hernandez||Hold||It’s hard to overvalue the game’s best pitcher, but he’s not undervalued either.|
|Michael Pineda||Hold||While I think his stock is currently overvalued based on his current production, I do believe that his value will only go up over the next few years. No reason to sell when I don’t think the stock price will ever go back down and you’ll be wanting shares down the line.|
|Jason Vargas||Buy||Vargas had a slump and his stock dropped like a rock. Buy now while it’s still down. Recent perforamce indicates that he’s going to bounce back.|
|Blake Beavan||Hold||Is Beavan simply Doug Fister version 2.0? Or will the league figure him out once there’s enough tape on him? It’s hard to tell, but it could go either way. My advice is to wait and see a little longer.|
|Charlie Furbush||Sell||His peripherial stats indicate that he’s going to be inconsistant, and, with his delivery, injury will always be a concern. I don’t think I’m making much a profit on this, but I’m selling right now.|
|Brandon League||Hold||This is the most successful stretch of his career, but that is common knowledge and people keep bailing on him waiting the “bubble” to pop. This has actualy kept his value down where it should be. Odd how that happens sometimes.|
|Tom Wilhelmsen||Hold||Some fans are (rightfully) skeptical after his struggles in April and in trying to convert to being a starter in AA. Other fans are (rightfully) optimistic because of his successes since being recalled. My advance is to wait and see.|
|Josh Lueke||Buy||People are still skeptical because of his struggles in April. His velocity is back now, and he’s getting outs. It’s only a matter of time until people catch on and his value goes up.|
|Dan Cortes||Hold||He’ll have good outtings, then struggle. Some will overvalue him, others will undervalue him. Play the middle road here.|
|Aaron Laffey||Sell||He’s very unlikely to see the mound all that often. His value will continue to drop as the season wears on.|
|Jamey Wright||Sell||Wright was good early on, and hasn’t been a good recently.Yet fans still hold on to his early success and his stock is still a bit overvalued from that. Plus, he’s a free agent after this year and s getting up there in age. You don’t want to be stuck holding onto stock for a player trying to choose between retirement or another non-roster invite|
|Jeff Grey||Buy||He’s the forgotten man in the bullpen, but he has good stuff. Get a few shares now. It’s cheap, and it could pay off down the road.|
|Dustin Ackley||Buy||His newness and awesomness, in conjuction with the lack of talent around him, likely has him overrated right now. Still, smart investers don’t risk all their assetts in day trading. Ackley’s stock is going to be strong for many many years. Buy now while you still can.|
|Mike Carp||Sell||Carp isn’t going to hit .370 forever. He never even hit minor league pitching this well. Sell now while it’s overvalued. Re-buy during his inevitable return to Earth when his value drops.|
|Justin Smoak||Buy||Smoak’s slump and injuries has he value at an all time low. Buy now. His stock will rebound and you’ll make a nice profit.|
|Jack Wilson||Sell||He’s played well, but Brendan Ryan is due back soon. Plus, I feel Wilson might retire after this year.|
|Brendan Ryan||Buy||Ryan’s defense is under rated. His bat is over rated. His injury means he’s forgotten. Buy now, and take advantage of the “oh ya, I remember that I like him” effect when he returns.|
|Kyle Seager||Sell||Seager’s stock price is way over inflated simply because of one thing: His name isn’t Chone Figgins. As Figgins drifts further and further from people’s mind, Seager’s price will come down. It will come down even more in September when Alex Liddi starts getting playing time at 3B after rosters expand.|
|Ichiro Suzuki||Buy||His stock price has been dropping slowly all year. He’s not going anywhere, and once the off-season gets here people will start projecting a rebound which will drive his stock price back up. Take advantage of this inevitable optimism by buying now.|
|Franklin Gutierrez||Buy||It’s only a matter of time before everyone notices he’s broke out of his season long slump. Buy now before his price takes a huge jump up.|
|Casper Wells||Hold||The recent HR power has driven his price up. Normally I’d be saying sell here, but I just have this feeling that his consistant playing time will slowly add to his value over time, even as his stats decline a bit. Hold for now, but that might change.|
|Trayvon Robinson||Sell||He’s can hit, and around here that’s definitely worth something. He’s also new, and you know how people like shiny things. He’s not likely to get consistant playing time, and will be prone to long slumps due to his poor contact rate. His price will come down.|
|Miguel Olivo||Sell||His HR power has his stock way overvalued. He lack of any other tool has really hurt the team. People will notice eventually how bad he’s been. Get out now why there’s still time. His stock price wont go up from here, so there’s nothing to gain by waiting.|
|Josh Bard||Sell||Bard’s career is nearing it’s end. The casual fan likes him more than he’s worth to the team. Try and get someone to buy your shares before he retires.|
|Luis Rodriguez||Sell||His stock is pretty worthless, but I don’t expect it to ever have value. Don’t be caught holding onto this one.|
|Chone Figgins||Buy||His value couldn’t possbly be lower. You might even find people willing pay you to take some of his stock. He will rebound at some point, even if it’s with another team. When the stock is free, it only has to go up a little bit to make a nice profit.|
|Wily Mo Pena||Hold||Maybe even buy a little bit. Wait until he hits a few of his tradmark monster HRs, then sell everything.|
So, what do you think of my future as a stock advisor?