The Mariners and 62


With 10 days until the draft I’m going to throw out some more thoughts on the Mariners picks and more specifically what’s going to happen in the second round.

The draft itself is rather exciting to me, as you never know what can happen. Last year we saw two potential first round draft picks drop to us in round three (Ryne Stanek) and four (James Paxton). Leaving the mind wonder who will drop this year and be available at positions 62 as well as 92. But don’t forget we also have near back-to-back picks at 122 and 124.

What is really crazy about this draft is how much variance there is with where talent will end up. Taking a look at some of the following list out there (Diamond Scape Scouting, Perfect Game, ESPN and Baseball America) you could see a guy go anywhere between the second and fifth round in some places. There is just that much depth. Which is exciting and at the same time and a little frustrating for guys in my position.

I have this train of thought right now where I think that teams such as Texas, Washington, Arizona, Toronto, San Diego and especially Boston and Tampa are all going to and take some risks in the first half of the draft and then go ahead go safer in their sandwich picks.

That may or may not be true but that’s where I’m at and because of that I think that there is going to be a lot of high schoolers that are potential first round guys that drop a good 20-30 picks because teams aren’t willing to take the risks at that spot.

That will give the Mariners an opportunity and we know that Tom McNamara loves his high school arms. But, that said I don’t know if the Mariners are in a position to go after a high school talent at this point. I’d prefer they wait until the 122/124 picks.

While the college pickings are going to be rather slim the Mariners are approaching their competitive window and having a few solid college talents on the top end of their farm system would be of great help to their cause.

T-10 days to go here are my names that at 62 I think the Mariners should be looking at.

With 62nd overall pick and 2nd in the 2nd round the Seattle Mariners should take:

Sean Gilmartin, L/L, LHP – Florida State

Major League Comparison: Al Leiter

Most people here know that I don’t really care for people that throw out the “pitchability”  stamp on players. It usually just means that he’s lucky to get guys out and that leaves a lot of runners on base despite the fact that his pitches are hittable. But with Gilmartin he has the stats to back it up.

Despite being a two way player (an outfielder on his off days) he profiles best on the mound.  He’s sported a K/9 of 7.6, 8.7, and 10.14 over the last three years and this year he has a FIP of 3.46. He doesn’t do his damage by his blistering 90 mph fastball (though it does sit anywhere from 88-92 mph) he does it via a very impressive change-up which is considered by a few to be a “plus-plus” pitch or a major league ready pitch. He also features a fairly average slider and a curve ball that isn’t mentioned much.

He is a baseball player. He works extremely hard and is very smart when it comes to his overall stuff.  He works extremely hard and while I hate saying these things “he knows how to get hitters out”.

It’s very possible that he goes in the sandwich rounds as most people are split but most agree he is a Top-75 talent and teetering on being in the top-50.

Derek Fisher, L/L, OF – High School (PA)

Major League Comparison: Shawn Green

Fisher has just insane raw power. I kind of feel bad for him in the way that everyone talks about Josh Bell, Larry Greene and Dan Vogelbach that Fisher has really flown under the radar. Now he’s still there and in a lot of 30-40 ranges. Brandon Nimmo is going to get a lot of love too so it’s easy to see how Fisher kind is an after thought. His ability at the plate is, in my opinion, the most under rated in this entire draft. I think he should be considered a Top-20 guy.

The problem with where he’s at right now is that is he is unpolished at the plate. That’s what sets him and Josh Bell apart. However, I think Fisher is the better defender and could potentially stick at center. He’s a five tool candidate though it’s consistent.  He has speed, he has a great bat and the above average raw power is all there.  He’s got a great arm that if and most likely when he is forced to a corner out field spot he’ll be just fine.

He has worlds apart hit tool compared to Larry Greene (who is basically the 2011 version of Mike Wilson in my opinion) so he’s more than just power he’s a solid hitter too, though undisciplined.  A few different scouts have talked about him chasing too many off-speed pitches out of the zone. I know that instantly gives people visions of Greg Halman but

Kes Carter, L/L, CF – Western Kentucky University

Major League Comparison: Rondell White

He may not have quiet the same power as White  – I don’t know if Walker will ever hit more than 25 home runs – but he has plus tool and it’s starting to develope power as he is a solid hitter with a good swing. But, from what I’ve understood it’s there during batting practice and it’s starting to grow into his game and his ISO has been moving in the positive the last three years .117, .143, and .213. That’s a 70 point jump with the new bats which have sapped power around college baseball. So you know that it’s at least a solid tool.

He may not hit more than 25 home runs a season in the big leagues but the guy certainly has average to slightly above average raw power. It also hasn’t helped that he has been troubled by a hip problem all spring, this alone has dropped him in a few scouts eyes as they’ve labeled him injury prone for things that have happened over the last few years.

The thing about Carter is he has plus tools just about the entire way around the board and is one of the most underrated college players out there. There are times I can’t help myself and think Josh Hamilton while looking at this guy. I know that Hamilton was much more advanced at his age (and in high A ball), there is also the size difference but I see that as Carter’s ceiling.

What is more important than power (as it’s the last real tool to show) his swing is solid and he makes great contact. His strike outs have decreased and his walks have increased every year.

He is one of the best defensive center fielders in the draft. He uses his speed and makes good reads to get to balls in the air. I won’t lie from what I’ve heard it helps that his speed is a plus tool however, I think he’ll only get better over time and if nothing else he has the arm for right field and could move there easily.

he is a beast of an athelete but more than that he’s a baseball player. through and through and we know that’s what our front office likes.

If there was one guy that I was circling for 62 it’s this guy. I don’t know if he’ll be around but I see him drop off a lot of radars and that excites me. PLEASE get him Tom McNamara he’d be an amazing addition to the farm system.

Kyle Winkler, R/R, RHSP – Texas Christian University

Major League Comparison: Gavin Floyd

Scouts came to TCU to see a top draft pick and instead stumbled on another. Winkler was projected to be drafted somewhere around 5-10th rounds at the beginning of the season but he has raised his stock significantly not just with his results but also with his increased velocity and his change that has gotten better too.

Winkler throws a fastball that sits in the low 90s (91-93) which he uses in association with great sharp slider but also has the plus change-up to his name. The way he works on the mound reminds me a lot of Roy Oswalt though I don’t think that his ceiling is quiet that high. But, That’s not to say he’s not a great talent, if not for his stature he’s a first round guy and there is still a chance he sneaks in there. Standing only 5-11 there is plenty of prejduce about wheather or not his body can hold up over time and if he’s not long for the bullpen.

But I don’t see the bullpen in his future. While his mechanics aren’t great they aren’t brutal and I don’t see any injuries coming from them and I’ve seen other talent evaluators say the same thing. But, that’s just me and I’m not a scout, just a fan. Baseball America also seems to think that because of his delivery he generates a lot of deception and induces either swings and misses or weak contact.

Winkler profiles as a middle of the rotation pitcher and while I don’t expect him to be available at this point of the draft, as he should be certain to go in the sandwich rounds, I’d have him on my list just to make sure I don’t over look him.

Alex Dickerson, L/L, LF – University of Indiana

Major League Comparison: Andre Either (also drafted in the 2nd round and 62nd overall)

I’ve considered a few different talents here as the last guy on my list. Brandon Martin, Ryan Carpenter, Tyler Goedde, Bryan Brickhouse, Michael Kelley and B.A. Vollmuth all seemed like good fits. But on all of them I was sure that they wouldn’t fall to third or even the fourth round. While all having positives they have their negatives too. So I decided to stick with Dickerson.

Dickerson is unanimously a top-50 talent with amazing potential at the plate. So why does he fall all the way to 62?

1) The potential injury issues is one huge thing. He’s had back problems which of course is NEVER good for a hitter and even worse for a college/potential prospect talent.

2) There is fear that he’ll be pushed either to first base or even designated hitter in the long run due to his lack of work ethic and overall tools.

Why should the Mariners look past all of this? Well Dickerson has monster tools at the plate. A very polished hitter with a game plan and professional approach at the dish. He cut his strikeouts considerably over the last year and while that has come with a little loss of power he is such a great hitter at the plate I’m not worried about it. I think some of that is adjusting to the bats as well.

He doesn’t walk “a lot” by elite college hitter standards, he’s still consistent and has been over 10% for his career at Indiana.  But this year he’s struck out less than he’s walked with a BB/K ratio of 23/22.

Dickerson is a risk no doubt and he makes me think a lot of Dennis Raben but he’s a solid talent and could work through the minor leagues in a year/year and a half. There is always risk with draft picks but he could very well provide ample reward too.

In Summation

I think there are quiet a few talents that could fit what the Mariners are looking for and by no means should this be the be all and end all list. But these are guys that I’ve specifically been looking at and would like to see the Mariners consider and/or draft at 62.

If I had to rank in what order I’d want them it would be something like Carter, Winkler, Fisher,  Gilmartin and Dickerson. There is a possibility that all of these guys are taken in the first round and sandwich round. But I think one of them will slip through the cracks and be of great value to the organization.