1. Small Sample Size —–> The 2010 baseball season is only 9-games old. Judging the Mariners based on their performance through 9 games is downright stupid. Milton Bradley is hitting about .115, which is more than 140 points less than his career average. The Mariners are currently an offensive black hole. They will regress to the mean. That’s just how baseball works. However, they will regress up to the mean, as opposed to last year, when the team regressed down to the mean after a hot start. Everyone needs to shut up and stop being worried, because a 3-6 start could still lead to an 88-74 end.
2. Spring Training Statistics —–> Yes, Jason Heyward and Mike Sweeney each had great Spring Trainings. And hey, it doesn’t mean anything. For every baseball announcer who references a player’s Spring Training performance and asserts that this performance indicates a likelihood of that player achieving future success, I will rip a packing peanut in half. Spring Training means nothing. It’s about as meaningful as Jack Wilson’s breakfast of choice. Not to badmouth Jack Wilson’s favorite variety of eggs and bacon, because I have no doubt that Jack Wilson has great culinary taste, but they mean very little in terms of how effective Jack Wilson is during the baseball season.
3. Failure to Understand the Offensive/Defensive Impact of a Player—–> Recent baseball research has shown that defense is very important. For example, Jason Bay can produce at a far-above-average level offensively, but his defensive ineptitude (namely a -13 UZR and -14.4 RngR in 2009) cuts down his overall value. Paying a defensively-challenged Jason Bay 17 million dollars a year for the next four years to play left field as his remaining value slowly deteriorates would have been a bad, bad move. Trading away a horrible, overpriced pitcher in return for an above-average, overpriced position player was a very good move. In conclusion, those who question Jack Zduriencik’s failure to acquire a “big bat” have either forgotten Milton Bradley or need to understand the value of defense.
This is the last time I will post this, I promise. I just wish the casual fan would come to understand these three things.
Note: Boy, those M’s bats sure are looking good after tonight’s 11-hit win, aren’t they, Andy? Maybe we had a point after all.