Statistical Observations of the Day, Volume 4


I’ll focus on guys whose names are being linked (albeit completely randomly) to the Mariners.

All of the following are true of John Lackey:

  • He was worth 4.1, 5.6, 6.2, 4.7, 1.1, and 3.6 wins above a replacement level player in his 2004-2009 seasons.
  • With the exception of 2008, his tRA has never risen above 4.30 since 2004.
  • He would benefit considerably from pitching with the Mariners’ defense behind him.

Ben Sheets:

  • has a career swinging strike percentage of around 10%.
  • did not pitch in 2009.
  • pitched over 190 innings in 2008.
  • has a career tRA that is less than 3.70
  • is not as big a risk as most people think he is.

Rich Harden:

  • has not pitched more than 150 innings in a season since 2004.
  • rung up a ridiculous swinging strike percentage of 15.1% in 141 innings in 2009.
  • also walks a crapload of batters.  Perhaps he would even go as far as to walk the entire world if he got the opportunity.

The following list of details about Edwin Jackson is not comprised of lies (that was a stretch):

  • He posted a positive pRAA for the first time in his career as a starter (other than 0.5 in 2006), which was 7.5.
  • He is, as Jeff and Dave put it, pretty much Brandon Morrow with less of an ability of miss bats.
  • Jackson is an above-average major league quality starter for cheap.
  • He was worth 2.8 WAR last year, and he seems to have figured out how to pitch effectively.  His ’09 season in its entirety was no fluke.  He was lucky and then he regressed.