The L.A. Dodgers picked up Zack Greinke for the second-highest Major League contract. What does it mean for the Mariners? ©Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
9/30/2012

When a big-ticket deal happens in baseball, it can’t stay quiet for long. Pitcher Zack Greinke officially signed with the L.A. Dodgers, creating a ruckus. The Dodgers signed him for six years and 147 million dollars.

That’s right, $147 million.

What this means for the Mariners is that the Texas Rangers suddenly have a lot of bargaining power to snatch up Josh Hamilton for a larger contract. It also means that “King” Felix Hernandez may have his eye on a much higher price tag to renew his contract.

Greinke’s record-setting deal is the second largest only to Yankees pitcher, CC Sabathia at $161 million. Greinke had a stellar 2012 season, posting a 3.48 ERA in 212 1/3 innings for the Brewers and Dodgers. He won the AL Cy Young Award, an honor reserved for the two best pitchers (one AL one NL) in baseball, in 2009. He has a career ERA of 3.51, ninth of all active pitchers.

The Grienke deal is pending a physical. Should he pass and join the Dodgers, it will make the Dodgers 2013 payroll (already $210.68 million) the largest in Major League Baseball history.

What do you think the Grienke deal will mean for the Mariners, who are trying valiantly to scoop up key offensive players for their 2013 season? Will King Felix try to negotiate a larger deal?  Will they be able to compete for Josh Hamilton against the larger-budget Rangers? Post your thoughts in the comments section.

Just look at the numbers. Aside from Cliff Lee, who I would not be disappointed to see the award go to, mind you, Felix has the highest WAR in the league, at 6.4. His xFIP of 3.27 ranks 3rd, behind Francisco Liriano, who has sustained his 3.07 mark over significantly fewer innings, and Jon Lester. Strikeouts? He’s got 232 of them, the most in baseball. Like inning eaters? He’s thrown 249 2/3, second to the one and only Roy Halladay, by exactly one inning. Not so big on sabermetrics? He has a 2.27 ERA, too.

The fact is, no matter what stats you subscribe to, Felix Hernandez has been one of, if not the very best pitcher in the American League – unless, of course, you subscribe to win-loss record, in which case you probably shouldn’t be reading this blog. Similar arguments can be made for Lee and Liriano as well, and as long as one of those 3 comes away with the award, no injustice has been committed. CC Sabathia, on the other hand, really has nothing but wins going for him, and those wins mean a whole lot less when you pitch for the Yankees.

The Cy Young voters made a ton of progress last season when they went with Tim Lincecum (15 wins) and Zack Greinke (16 wins), and they have a chance to continue that progress in 2010.

Listed below are the starting pitchers with the lowest BABIPs of 2009.

None of you should be surprised to see Jarrod Washburn’s name on that list.  That man benefited massively from the likes of Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Endy Chavez patrolling the Mariners outfield, robbing opposing batters of home runs, line drives, and gappers alike.  But even then, Washburn was very, very lucky.  Wolf ran up a 3.23 ERA in 214.1 innings, which actually wasn’t so far off from a 3.86 tRA and 3.96 FIP.  Ohlendorf’s luck changed dramatically from what it was in 2008 (his BABIP dropped over .115 points), and a 5.55 K/9 doesn’t say much for his true talent level. Matt Cain, who pitched quite well in 2009, was unarguably pretty lucky, as he ended up with an ERA a full run below his FIP.  For reference, his teammate Tim Lincecum’s FIP was just about level with his ERA.  And then there’s J. A. Happ.  We’ll get to him later.

Now, here are the starting pitchers with the lowest HR/FB ratios in 2009.

This list shows that even really good pitchers can get lucky.  Or, one could extrapolate, that really good pitchers tend not to give up very many home runs. Although one could argue that better pitchers induce weaker contact which leads to more weak fly ball outs instead of hard-hit home runs, for the most part, running a HR/FB ratio around 4-5 is very flukey, no matter what ballpark you’re playing in.  For reference, the league average percentage of fly balls allowed that turn into home runs was around 11.

Zack Greinke may have gotten off easily in the HR/FB department, but for the most part, he pitched to his true talent level in 2009.  Opponents hit .313 on balls in play against him, a far cry from the .274 mark run up by Clayton Kershaw.  However, Kershaw’s 3.29 tRA indicates that perhaps he wasn’t that lucky.

And last but certainly not least are the starters who stranded the most base-runners of 2009.

Notice that Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, and J. A. Happ are all listed on two of these charts.  For some illogical reason, this amuses me.

And now we can talk about J.A. Happ.  Happ was lucky to a Washburn-esque degree in 2009.  He stranded a ridiculous amount of baserunners and allowed a relatively tiny number of homers (considering he pitches in the miniscule, hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park).  His K-BB ratio was only 2-1, his BABIP was way lower than the Major League average, and was only worth 1.8 WAR in165+ innings.  And yet he ended up with a shiny 12-4 record and 2.93 ERA.  Fortunately for Phillies fans, Happ has a ton of potential, and there’s a very real possibility he puts up similar numbers for years to come.  But at that point luck may not have anything to do with it.

Congratulations to all the aforementioned pitchers for not ending up like Ricky Nolasco.