July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Danny Hultzen throws a pitch during the third inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via USA TODAY Sports

Last week I posted my Mariner’s hitter projections for the upcoming season. This time, I am going to talk about my predictions for the rotation in 2013. Like before, I used FanGraphs’ projection system. For pitchers, the system asks you to pick a stat range for the following categories: Games, Pitcher Role, IP/Game, Wins, Losses, ERA, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. It then takes those ranges, and puts them together to create a more accurate and coexisting stat line, as opposed to the person just picking their own numbers that may not jive together.

Here are my projections for the starters I see playing a significant role this year. There are sure to be more due to injuries and such, but those are difficult to project, so I didn’t worry about them. Side note, you will also notice that the pitcher stats are less specific than the hitting stats, and that a lot of the numbers will be similar from one pitcher to the next.

Felix Hernandez

With the extension under his belt, I expect big things from the King this year. He was around where you would expect last year, posting a 2.84 FIP, 3.20 xFIP and 6.1 fWAR. As you can see above, I expect a pretty similar season across the board, with the only significant change being a lower ERA. He could very well be even better than this, and there’s a chance we have yet to see Felix at his best. He is entering his prime at the age of 27, and should be poised for a big season. Assuming there is no elbow trouble, and his velocity doesn’t drop any more, we could see Felix earn his 2nd Cy Young Award in 2013.

Hisashi Iwakuma

After being hidden at the end of the bullpen to start the year, Iwakuma made a big impact in the rotation last year. He made 14 bullpen appearances before getting his first start in July, and staying there for the rest of the year. He posted a  3.16 ERA, although his 4.35 FIP suggests that he didn’t actually pitch quite that well. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but also doesn’t do anything horribly bad. He gets a decent amount of strikeouts, limits walks, and gets a solid percentage of ground balls. On second look, he does need to reduce  the amount of homers he allows, but it isn’t awful at 10.9%. As seen above, I expect a year fairly similar to last year, with the major difference being a regression in his ERA. He should be a decent stop gap for the next two years until the kids are ready.

Joe Saunders

Saunders is basically a Vargas clone, but was better overall than Vargas last year. He posted a 4.07 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 4.25 xFIP and 2.5 WAR split between Arizona and Baltimore, two hitters parks, whereas Vargas put up a 3.85 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 4.45 xFIP and 0.8 WAR in the friendly confines of Safeco. Now, it was also a down year for Vargas and an up year for Saunders, and some regression back to the norm is to be expected from both. They have been pretty much equal for their careers, with a slight edge to Saunders. The fact that we are essentially getting Vargas’ clone and Morales instead of just the real Vargas makes for a win-win situation. But if Saunders does what he did last year, or better, than that’s just net gain.

Erasmo Ramirez

Like Iwakuma, Erasmo got limited opportunities as a starter, due to both being stuck in the pen, and then getting injured later. He also made the most of his limited time, and really impressed me. He is undersized, but still manages to hit 94-95 at times, and has solid secondary stuff. He limits walks and homers, while getting a decent amount of K’s. He has always been a solid performer, and was probably overlooked because of his size, which happens much to often. It shouldn’t matter how big he is if he gets the job does, and Erasmo does. It should be more of the same next year, and I expect him to be the second best starter on the team next year behind Felix.

Blake Beavan

Beavan is the lesser of two evils between himself and Noesi, and is often talked down upon. And I understand that. He doesn’t strike many people out, is susceptible to the long ball, and is just kind of boring to watch. But he hasn’t been horrible for his purposes. In 41 starts he has posted a 4.37 ERA and 4.85 FIP. Not good, but keep in mind he is a back end starter who is only there because there were no other options. There’s a good chance this is the last year that he has a rotation spot, and may not even stay there for the whole year.  But if he can up his strike out rate like I project above, he could be at least a presentable back end starter until he is replaced by one of the prospects.

Danny Hultzen

Despite his ending of last season, I see Hultzen pitching his way onto the major league roster at some point during the year. He said that his struggles in AAA Tacoma last year (5.92 ERA, 7.95 BB/9) were due to fatigue. He had never pitched that much in his career, and was trying too hard. He knew that he had lost some speed and movement, so he had to overcompensate by throwing harder, or pronating further, and that caused him to lose control. I haven’t lost any confidence in his ability to be a successful pitcher in the bigs as early as this season. I see him coming up sometime in mid-late June, and pitching into early-mid September before being shutdown as to not overdo it again.

Those are the guys I see getting significant time in the rotation next year. I could go into the bullpen, but the personnel, and success of the personnel fluctuate so much from year to year, that I didn’t feel like making projections made much sense. I will say that I expect, for the most part, the ‘pen to consist of Charlie Furbush, Lucas Luetge, Carter Capps, Stephen Pryor, Oliver Perez and Tom Wilhelmsen, but that’s about as far as I’ll go into it. It looks to be a solid bullpen on paper, but judging bullpens before actually seeing them that year is never a safe bet.

Once again, feel free to make your own projections and share them in the comments. Also, stay tuned for the post-offseason win projection poll, so we can see how people’s opinions have changed after seeing the moves Jack and company made.

Fangraphs has the “projector” choose a range for the following categories: Games played, spot in the batting order, position, batting average, 2B+3B/150 games, HR/150 games, K and BB%, stolen bases/150 games, and finally fielding/150 games. It then takes those projections, does some calculations, and gives you a full batting line based on what you projected.

You can always just come up with your own projections for each stat, but their system helps each stat coincide, and prevents someone from projecting two contradictory stats, such as 40 HR, but only a .420 slugging percentage or something like that. Side note, I may tweak some of them if I think they are too off base for what I actually think.

So, here is what the computer put together for each player based on my projections.

Dustin Ackley

Ackley was extremely disappointing last year, hitting a measly .226/.294/.328. He did play the whole year with an injury, but we will see how much of an effect that had. The good news is that his K rate went down from his rookie year, and his contact rates went up. It may be a matter of not “stepping in the bucket” any more, or something else mechanically. But as you can see in my projections, I expect a bounce back season form the former #2 overall pick. The numbers it gave me are pretty much exactly what I would have said myself, which is a good sign. If he puts together a line similar to this, I would call it a successful season.

Kyle Seager

Seager had a solid breakout year last season, and exceeded most people’s standards. He hit .259/.316/.423, with a surprisingly high 20 home runs. He didn’t show a ton of power in the minors, but was able to hit a solid amount of bombs last year. The projections are pretty much what I expect, although the HR might be 2-3 too high. I don’t think we will see him exceed his 20 HR output last year, but he should be close to that number. He has a solid frame, and a bit of an uppercut which aid in his power. If he can continue to improve his contact and on base numbers, he could be a very good player in the future.

Jesus Montero

Montero was somewhat disappointing, and didn’t live up to the high expectations put on him. But, he was only 22 years old, and you can’t expect too much out of someone so young. Would I have liked to see something a little better than that? Sure, but I haven’t lost faith. I am not AS confident as I was in him, but I still see a solid or better player in the future. That can be seen in the stats above, as they are all slightly improved over last year. I agree with them for the most part, but I had to bump up the HR and 2B numbers by a couple each. I think with the fences in, and his continued progression, he should be at least in the 20-23 HR range. Bill James is projecting an .803 OPS for next year, while the fans overall are at .781, so I feel pretty safe where I am. I fully expect him to continue to improve, and become a good middle of the order guy in the future.

Kendrys Morales

Morales had a solid year last year coming off a major injury. He posted a .339 wOBA and 118 wRC+ for the Angels last year, and I expect even better this year. He had an all-star caliber year in 2009, and was looking like he was on pace for another in 2010 before suffering an injury during a walk-off celebration against the Mariners. The numbers above look great, and I would be ecstatic if he produced like that. The power numbers look about right, but I am not sure about the .289/.346 part. I don’t see him walking over 40 times, but you never know. To be honest, if he could put up a .275/.330/.475 line, I would be perfectly fine. If Smoak figures it out, we could have an interesting “problem” at 1st base after next year, but that’s for another article.

Michael Morse

Morse was only able to play in 102 games last year, and was good, but not great in his limited time. He put up a .791 OPS last year, a big drop off from his .910 OPS in 2011. That’s probably my biggest disagreement with his stats above, I don’t see him getting 584 PA next year, seeing as he has averaged 433 PA/year for the last three years. Other than that, I think its conceivable. Its pretty close to his career numbers, which is about where he should be. The OBP might be a little high too, as his plate discipline has been suspect as well. Its hard to tell what he is going to be, but if he can put up numbers similar to those above, then I would call the trade a win. Anything less, and I may be a little disappointed.

Michael Saunders

Saunders finally figured it out last year after being written off by most because of his constant struggles. He was able to be the opening day center fielder due to Guti’s injury, and he made the most of it. He started off really well, then slumped, then figured it out, then slumped again, then ended the season on a high note. Consistency is going to be a big factor in his success next year. I think my prediction is attainable if he can limit the months in which he hits a wall, like August when he posted a 72 wRC+. He hit .247/.306/.432 for the season last year, so the numbers above would mean a small improvement in all parts of his offense. It looks very reasonable to me, and I think there’s a decent chance he has an even better year than that.

Justin Smoak

We all know about how disappointing Smoak has been thus far. He has hit .223/.306/.377 for his career, and didn’t show much improvement last year. That is, until he hit .341/.426/.580 in September. Now, I am not saying that that one month overrides the numerous months where he hit .220. But it does give me a little hope that he still has it in him. Plus, he posted a 111 wRC+ in the second half, so even in bigger periods he showed flashes of improvement. I don’t know why, but I get a feeling this is the year he gets in. He won’t be an All Star all the sudden, but numbers around what I have above, or even better. This really is his make or break year though, because if he doesn’t get it done, the Ms have another option in Kendrys Morales who they could try to extend.

Franklin Gutierrez

Guti is pretty much an enigma at this point. We don’t know if he will be healthy (although I think he should be), and we don’t know what to expect if he is healthy. He was decent last year in very limited time (.260/.309/.420), and very good in his offseason league (.349/.411/.523). On the other hand, he was well below average in the two seasons before last, so its hard to have too much hope. Hopefully if he can stay healthy we will see the old Guti, or something closer to it. The numbers above would be disappointing, so hopefully he is a little better, but its very hard to tell at this point.

Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach will probably serve as the backup catcher for Jesus Montero, so he won’t get a ton of time. I think it might make sense to have him in a platoon type roll, catching against lefties, with Montero DH-ing. Either way, he probably won’t get many more than 300 or so PA. He has been slightly below average for his career (.226/.314/.418), with his only full season being his best year. He has contact and strikeout issues, (33.4 K% for his career), but he is able to make up for it somewhat with solid plate discipline and power. If he plays mainly against lefties the numbers above wold probably look a lot better, seeing as he has a career .374 wOBA and 134 wRC+ against righties for his career. Either way, he probably won’t have too extensive of a role this year.

Brendan Ryan

Its a good thing Ryan plays great defense at shortstop. He hasn’t brought much of anything at the plate for his career (.244/.306/.327), and its been even worse lately. He has his worst offensive year last year, hitting .194/.277/.278 with 61 wRC+. But thanks to being the best defensive shortstop in the league, he was still able to be about league average for a starter. His time as a Mariner may be numbered with Nick Franklin and Brad Miller on the way, but for now, I am perfectly okay with him starting at short for the time being. He is a good clubhouse guy, and plays amazing defense. If he can pull off a .600 OPS or better, he can still be a valuable player.

Well, there you have it. Obviously there will be other guys getting ABs, but the guys above figure to play the biggest roles in the upcoming season. Guys like Raul Ibanez and Casper Wells will be able to earn some time if they hit well in their bench roles, or could step in if there is an injury. The numbers aren’t perfect, but they should give a good idea of what I expect for the upcoming season.

Stay tuned for the Pitchers Projections next week, and if you want to take the time to make your own projections and post them in the comments, feel free.

Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Marcel is the most basic projection system out there, besides Eric Wedge’s gut instinct. Its 2012 predictions came out on Fangraphs last week, but the easiest thing to predict was all the hubbub about its pessimism. Why are only two players predicted to top 30 dingers when 20 players did just that last season? Why is no one expected to top 600 ABs when—to name a familiar face—Ichiro has done so for 11 consecutive seasons? These are valid questions, and highlight both strengths and weaknesses to this simple crystal ball.

Consider a group of 25 players. We’ll call them a team, a baseball team. We know there is a pretty good chance that at least one of them will miss significant time in 2012 due to injury (things happen…like IBS). Instead of attempting to guess which player is going to go down, Marcel just projects fewer ABs for every starter. What this means is that Marcel is likely to massively over-predict for the guy who tears his ACL, and slightly under-predict the other 24 players. Its strength is strength in numbers. It hits the averages pretty well.

The weakness is then obviously its inability to properly forecast the players that don’t get injured…right? Actually, Marcel—as simple as it is—has forecasted just about as well as many other projection systems that use a lot more inputs. One phenomenon that many people underestimate is that of regression to the mean. Marcel uses not only the past three years of data to project a player’s future, but also regresses that estimate slightly toward the league average. How is that fair, you ask? For whatever reason—and I have my own opinions on this—players tend back toward the league average each season, whether that be back up or back down.

So Marcel’s pessimism isn’t actually quite as pessimistic as we thought. In fact, it’s just as pessimistic for yesteryear’s great players as it is optimistic for previous busts. But its strength still lies in projecting for teams rather than individuals, in my opinion. So how do we look out there?

Clearly, we’re not going to be competing offensively with the Angels or the Rangers, but we didn’t need a projection system for such astute analysis. The key here is the positive regression expected of the Mariners as a team, and that doesn’t even account for a whole season of Jesus Montero! Again, just as players that are performing far better than expected come back down to earth, the opposite is true for players hitting very badly (see: Mariners).

As for the individual players’ forecasts, I’m going to combine each of the major projection systems. The players have been divided into “easy-to-project” and “hard-to-project” based on the deviation of their projections (in batting points), and I’ve recorded their average wOBA from Marcel, ZiPS, RotoChamp, Bill James, Steamer, and the FANS projections.

Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

First things first: Can we please start Jaso??? Jaso had a double-digit walk rate in the minors, and has maintained that in his 687 PAs in show, and look! He’s projected to hit 29 wOBA points better than Olivo. Additionally, new pitch-blocking data shows Olivo to be well below average. In fact, he’s the worst since the stat became a real thing.

Overall, young players tend to be the hardest to project. Saunders, Wells and Liddi had the most diverse projections, and they have combined for only a thousand PAs total. Other than Ichiro and Olivo, the “hard” ones to predict are pretty much first and second-year players (or the equivalent in terms of PAs).

In other words, this is a high variance team since so many young guys are going to be in and out of the lineup. With even two or three outperforming their median expectations, things could be a little more interesting this year come September, especially with an extra playoff spot up for grabs!

Pitcher projections to come next week…